SOUTH-EAST Asian nations with ocean access can expect to face low-intensity maritime security issues in the next decade - but continuing rivalries and tensions in the region may hamstring the cooperation needed to secure the sea lanes, a think-tank has warned.
London's International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said these countries will face challenges such as sea piracy, drug trafficking and seaborne terrorism.
By David Boey, Defence Correspondent
SOUTH-EAST Asian nations with ocean access can expect to face low-intensity maritime security issues in the next decade - but continuing rivalries and tensions in the region may hamstring the cooperation needed to secure the sea lanes, a think-tank has warned.
London's International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said these countries will face challenges such as sea piracy, drug trafficking and seaborne terrorism.
The region's maritime environment includes 'significant trade routes' such as the Malacca Strait, used by more than 50,000 vessels every year, and natural resources such as oil, natural gas and fishing grounds.
In its annual survey of the world's military forces, titled The Military Balance, the IISS said that apart from unresolved maritime border disputes, South-east Asian nations must also contend with increasing interest in the region from outside powers such as India, Japan and the United States.
'During the current decade, outside powers' naval interest has escalated as a result of the war on terrorism, reports of increased piracy, and a perception of emerging threats to energy supplies transiting the region en route to North-east Asia,' it said.
Despite such challenges, the institute believes cooperation in the region will be limited. It said 'continuing rivalries and tensions between South-east Asian states and outside players, as well as within the sub-region, will continue to limit the intensity and operational usefulness of cooperation between navies'.
The IISS predicted that coast guard forces will be more heavily engaged in maritime security roles, and this is a promising area for regional cooperation to develop.
The 'semi-civilian nature' of such forces, their 'relatively low public profile, and their orientation towards and training for constabulary duties rather than war-fighting' should foster cooperation among the various nations' coast guards.
It argued that such cooperation 'may be politically less sensitive and potentially more productive in operational terms'.
Turning to naval hardware, the IISS noted that regional countries often buy warships and weapons 'without adequate planning for the infrastructure, logistics support and training necessary to bring them into operation'.
'Thus, while acquisition of platforms and weapons systems may proceed apace, in general South-east Asian navies will probably be slow to develop significant new capabilities,' it said.
The one exception, the Republic of Singapore Navy, is likely to develop 'genuinely networked capabilities' built around its Formidable-class missile-armed stealth warships, submarines, naval helicopters and unmanned systems over the next 10 years.
The only 'peer-competitor' for Singapore in terms of naval transformation is Malaysia.
'But the city-state is likely to be ahead in 2015,' it said.
