North Korea's launch of seven missiles demonstrated its capacity to generate geopolitical tension – but failed to show that it had advanced in its mastery of complex long-range missile technologies.
Pyongyang launched seven missiles, six one-stage devices. Though some of these may have reflected technological refinements, only one launch would have indicated that North Korea had made important strides: that of the three-stage Taepodong-2 missile, theoretically capable of reaching Alaska, Hawaii and even parts of the US mainland.
But that missile failed within a minute of being launched, a factor that experts said should give North Korea's neighbours and the US cause for comfort.
While Washington was relieved that the Taepodong-2 failed, a senior US administration official said that North Korea had still managed an "impressive demonstration of capabilities" by coordinating the launch of a number of missiles within a short space of time.
North Korea has shocked the world before with its missile programme. In 1998 it launched its three-stage medium-range Taepodong-1 over Japan, showing it could cope with the difficulties of separating different parts of a missile.
Since then it had been unclear how far North Korea's missile technology had developed. According to US officials, the Taepodong-2 crashed only 40 seconds after being fired from North Korea's eastern coast at 4am local time. Analysts said this suggested it failed – for as yet unknown reasons – well before the second stage of the rocket had separated, limiting the usable information North Korean scientists could derive from the launch.
"Clearly North Korea is not as far advanced in its missile capability as some people had thought it was and still cannot put a payload into orbit," said Jon Wolfsthal, a nuclear expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.
The Taepodong-2 would have required a "burn time" much longer than 40 seconds for the test to have been considered successful, he said.
Last year, Vice-Admiral Lowell Jacoby, then director of the US Defense Intelligence Agency, said a three-state version of the Taepodong-2 could "theoretically" hit most parts of the US, although many experts stress that is has not demonstrated that capability. The senior US official said Washington had not yet been able to determine whether the missile was a three-stage version of the Taepodong-2 because the missile burned up so quickly.
Wednesday's test gave both Pyongyang and the international community the chance to assess how far the technology had developed.
"Basically this is all about deterring the US but, in order to do that, North Korea needs to be able to strike the US and they are still a long way away from being able to do that," said Daniel Pinkston of the Monterey Institute's nonproliferation studies centre. "There is another downside – this is not exactly a good advertisement for sales," he said. North Korea has supplied Iran and Pakistan with missile technology.
Mr Wolfsthal of CSIS said he was surprised by the extent of the testing, as North Korea launched the Taepodong-2 along with six short-range Nodong or Scud missiles from two sites, suggesting Pyongyang was trying to confound US efforts to gather intelligence from the launch.
"They have also demonstrated that they are not restricted to performing one test at a time but can carry out co-ordinated missile launches. In a war situation, that would be something that would concern us," Mr Wolfsthal said.
Mark Fitzpatrick, a former US official now at London's International Institute for Strategic Studies, said North Korea had demonstrated one thing: that it cannot be pushed around. But he added: "One of the object-ives was to test the missile and it failed. That means there may be internal pressure to test another one."
North Korea, which operates under a "military first" policy, declared in February it had become a nuclear state and soon after said it no longer felt bound by a moratorium on missile testing.
Kim Kil-son, who worked in North Korea's Number 2 Research Centre before he escaped to South Korea in 1997, has recounted the "on the spot guidance" that President Kim Jong-il gave employees who were working on the Hwasong-6 scud missile.
"If we can develop this we have nothing to fear," Mr Kim quoted the North Korean leader as saying. "Whether we live or die, we must quickly develop the Hwasong-6."
