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July 15th - - CNN - Israeli Airstrikes Continue

HARRIS: Well, so much is happening in the Middle East so quickly. Let's turn to an expert on Islamic terrorism and regional security. Dr. Mamoun Fandy is the director of the Middle East program at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the author of "America and the Arab World after September 11" and he joins us from London. Mamoun, good to see you again. Thanks for taking the time.

MAMOUN FANDY, MIDDLE EAST EXPERT: Good to see you.

HARRIS: Let me just get your general impressions of where we are, the fourth day of this activity now. Give us a general overview.

FANDY: Well, a general overview is that there are some significant things that we have seen this time around of conflict. This is for the first time that the Arab states, major Arab states do not give cover to Hezbollah. Saudi Arabia called Hezbollah's action reckless.
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15 July 2006: CNN
 
TONY HARRIS, CNN ANCHOR: Well, so much is happening in the Middle East so quickly. Let's turn to an expert on Islamic terrorism and regional security. Dr. Mamoun Fandy is the director of the Middle East program at the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the author of "America and the Arab World after September 11" and he joins us from London. Mamoun, good to see you again. Thanks for taking the time.

MAMOUN FANDY, MIDDLE EAST EXPERT: Good to see you.

HARRIS: Let me just get your general impressions of where we are, the fourth day of this activity now. Give us a general overview.

FANDY: Well, a general overview is that there are some significant things that we have seen this time around of conflict. This is for the first time that the Arab states, major Arab states do not give cover to Hezbollah. Saudi Arabia called Hezbollah's action reckless.

Egypt and Jordan meeting yesterday in Cairo also decided that this is reckless action, that Hezbollah alone should bear the responsibility for it. Remember Lebanon is not Palestine. Hezbollah is not the Palestinians. They do not reverberate in the same way in the Arab world. So Hezbollah is now without a political cover in the Arab world and Israel has a free hand to actually break Hezbollah.

HARRIS: That was my next question. Is it your belief that the other Arab countries will stand on the sideline as Israel goes about its stated goal which is wiping Hezbollah off the map?

FANDY: It looks like it. I think basically if the Saudis and Egyptians and the Jordanians give way, then the whole picture looks different. That's really kind of a Shia war with Israel. It is Hezbollah, Iran and Syria. These are practically bound together by the Shia faith and these are the one who are in confrontation with Israel.

The Sunni states decided not to take part in that conflict. So in that sense, Israel would not feel the pressure from major players, especially Egypt to undermine Hezbollah. It's in their interest, also that Hezbollah would be undermined because they want to see a Lebanese state that's viable and Democratic.

HARRIS: Do you share the concerns of some that the continued action militarily by Israel in Lebanon will destabilize this young sort of fledgling democracy?

FANDY: Certainly. I mean you're walking a fine line. Hezbollah is really embedded in the Lebanese state. So you cannot really tear down Hezbollah without tearing down also that nascent democracy. Lebanon is very much -- I mean the Hezbollah swallowed the Lebanese states. They are more powerful. They have the guns. They have the men. And I think still the Lebanese state is very weak. So it's a real possibility that it would undermine the nascent democracy, Lebanon.

HARRIS: What is going to happen to Iran and Syria for its meddling in this?

FANDY: I mean, there are two scenarios here. We might think that this is what's taken place, is just a dust and a fog over Lebanon and Gaza. Then you will see a squadron of Israeli planes just doing their job by really hitting the nuclear reactors in Iran and that's a strategic objective for Israel, because certainly it threatens its survival.

So it might be the attack on Hezbollah or in Hamas and Palestine. It is a tactical choice, but actually the strategic option is take care of the nuclear facilities in Iran. Iran certainly and Syria will react and this is where the whole region could be thrown into a wider war.

HARRIS: Dr. Mamoun Fandy, always great to talk to you. Thank you.

FANDY: Thank you very much.