By Mark Heinrich
VIENNA (Reuters) - Nuclear inspectors fear Iran may make good on veiled threats to eject them over a U.N. demand it halt uranium enrichment, but analysts say Tehran is likely to stop short of a step that would make it an international pariah.
France presented a resolution on behalf of fellow powers the United States, Britain, Germany, Russia and China in the U.N. Security Council on Friday ordering Iran to freeze enrichment work and exposing it to possible sanctions if it does not.
The measure, spurred by exasperation over Iran's failure to respond to a two-month-old offer of economic incentives in return for halting potentially weapons-related work, could be put to a vote as early as Monday.
International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) chief Mohamed ElBaradei fears Iran could respond by quitting the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, removing all surveillance and safeguards applied to its atomic programme.
"Tehran is making clear that if the Council acts to halt a declared civilian nuclear fuel programme permitted by the NPT, it would see fit to cancel its NPT membership and halt all IAEA activity as a result," said a senior diplomat close to the IAEA.
Another Vienna-based diplomat versed in ElBaradei's views said: "A walkout would take three months to come into force. But it could mark the beginning of the end for non-proliferation, an historical mistake, with doomsday scenarios."
Western leaders suspect the Islamic Republic's professed quest to make nuclear fuel for electricity is a disguised arms project. Iran denies this. But mistrust reigns because Iran has stymied IAEA probes and hid much of its programme for 18 years.
Tehran, in turn, portrays the intensifying pressure on it to abandon uranium enrichment as a U.S.-driven campaign to deprive it of its legitimate rights.
Iranian chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani warned on July 20 that if any international measure were adopted "jeopardising the inalienable right of the Iranian nation, there will remain no option but a revision of national nuclear policy".
The senior diplomat said Larijani apparently meant an end to inspections, sinking the nuclear programme "into a black hole".
IAEA officials say they do not want "another North Korea".
In 2003, North Korea walked out of the NPT and ejected IAEA inspectors after the United States confronted it with evidence that it was pursuing a covert uranium-enrichment programme.
Two years later, the reclusive Stalinist state announced that it had assembled nuclear weapons.
IRAN IS NOT NORTH KOREA
But other experts say that Iran, unlike North Korea, derives great pride in a high international profile -- reflecting its status as a leading oil exporter and strategic Middle East power -- that would be shattered by quitting the NPT.
"Iran won't leave the NPT. This is an empty threat," said a Western intelligence official who asked not to be identified.
Pulling out of the NPT would weaken Tehran's argument, which has won backing from many other developing nations, that its rights to a peaceful nuclear programme were being unfairly challenged by the West.
"Iran puts great emphasis on its claim to the legal right to nuclear energy as stated in the NPT. To withdraw would undermine the legitimacy Iran values so highly," said Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
"Iran also understands the whole world would see such a move as signalling intent to use the nuclear programme for weapons purposes. Since they won't face biting sanctions anyway, they have everything to lose and nothing to gain by leaving the NPT."
An EU diplomat in Vienna said Iran might limit any early retaliation to cutting back on visas for IAEA inspectors.
The resolution is expected to give Iran until Aug. 31 to stop enriching.
Iran has said the offer of trade concessions is an "acceptable basis for talks" and it would respond by Aug. 22.
But it rules out ending enrichment work and on Sunday warned it would stop considering the incentives if the Council acted.
"Iran can afford to defy the resolution but not play the NPT pullout card for fear of provoking Russia into backing tough sanctions and possibly the U.S. to bomb them," said Gary Samore, chief global security analyst at Chicago's MacArthur Foundation.
"It would be logical for Iran to leave the NPT only if bombed, because then it would have sympathy from many countries who would cry: 'The U.S. is wrecking 'peaceful nuclear sites'."
ElBaradei sees no rush for a crackdown on Iran while its programme remains at a pilot stage. Most analysts say Iran is years away from running the thousands of centrifuges needed to enrich uranium in volumes that could fuel power plants or bombs.
(additional reporting by Louis Charbonneau in Berlin)
