The Foreign Ministry last Thursday ruled Hungary out of the running as a potential site for a proposed US anti-missile base aimed at stopping attacks from the Middle East after press reports claimed Hungary was a potential location. “There was some preliminary informal contact on this issue years ago, but there has been nothing since,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Viktor Polgár. “This has surfaced in Prague, but there is nothing similar going on here.”
Czech newspaper MF Dnes earlier in the week became the latest media outlet to report that Hungary was a potential competitor for the missile base, adding that a decision was imminent. Poland – one of the closest European supporters of US defence policy - has also indicated an interest in hosting the site and debate has been ongoing in the Polish government and media for many months. The European installation would apparently see ten “interceptor” missiles – designed to shoot down ballistic missiles before they reach their target – set up in a CEE nation.
No decision soon
However, a spokesman for the US Department of Defence played down the suggestions of an upcoming deal with one of the countries, which he also refused to name.
“The decision is not made and I couldn’t say when it will be made, but we are in discussion with various different governments in the region on the potential base,” Lieutenant Commander Joe Carpenter said. “The decision hasn’t even been made whether or not we will build in Europe. The first question is whether or not the system is viable.”
Nonetheless, Carpenter said that the US believed the base “could offer benefits to the US and regional allies in countering emerging threats from the Middle East where certain nations are developing a ballistic missile threat.”
The New York Times had earlier reported that the missile defence system was aimed specifically at countering a perceived future threat from Iran and that the US wanted it in place by 2011. US President George W Bush has pushed for the system, which dates back in a more ambitious form to the administration of Ronald Reagan. The original idea - dubbed Star Wars - was to counter the Cold War threat from Soviet missiles.
Effectiveness questioned
However, defence analysts have raised doubts about the efficiency of the missile shield.
“Missile defence systems have a spotty track record of success. Despite all of the billions spent on them, it is unclear if they will be successful in the real world,” said Ivan Eland, senior fellow and director of the Center on Peace & Liberty at The Independent Institute in Oakland. “The missiles that might be launched are primitive, but so are the defences. Missile defences have always had (and continue to have) the problem that they cost more to build than missiles. Thus, even if the missile defence systems could hit the missile reliably, any missile-launching nation can just build more missiles and overwhelm the systems.”
“It (the missile shield) isn't working,” Andrew Brookes, a defence analyst at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, told AFP news agency in May.
Iran a distant threat
Many have also questioned the “imminent” threat of Iran and its alleged nuclear weapons programme. Iran is now facing the threat of sanctions from the UN Security Council for failure to cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA). The West suspects that Iran is secretly developing nuclear weapons, but Eland is one of those who believe that the danger is far away.
“Iran is the principal threat. It will be five-to-ten years before Iran gets a nuclear weapon, some years before it gets a reliable missile, and even longer before it can mate the two together,” he said. “Iran is not an imminent threat to Europe and an even longer term threat to the US [the missile needs to be even longer range to hit the US].”
