Thanks very much Nawar (PH) . Let's return to the middle East. It is hard to compare Israel, which has a modern state of the art military, with Hezbollah, a Shiite political grouping, which has an armed wing. But the current battle is between these two forces. Well, in a moment we'll be talking to Nicholas Noe, an expert in Hezbollah from the Cambridge Center for International Studies. And also to Doctor Emmanuel Ottonlengie, a lecturer in Israeli Studies at Oxford University. But first, let's make that comparison. We'll look at the military balance between Hezbollah and Israel.
Well, the Israel can call on 168,000 active troops. With an estimated half a million reservists. That includes around 8,000 sailors, and about 35,000 serving in the air force. Israel has an overwhelming air superiority with over 400 fighter aircraft and around 95 attack helicopters. On the ground, Israel can deploy more than three and half thousand tanks, either as artillery along its border or should the need arise, it could spearhead an invasion. It's very hard to get a definitive estimate of Hezbollah's capabilities, but we do know that Hezbollah have far fewer fighters on the ground.
Estimates from the International Institute for Strategic Studies put the fighting strengths of Hezbollah at around 2,000 men. Of course, Hezbollah's main military threat is from its stockpile of more than 10,000 rockets and missiles. Their Katyusha rockets have a range of about 13 miles, while their FAJR-3 missiles are capable of hitting targets 25 miles away. Both put key Israeli cities well within range. But, Hezbollah can call on other weapons as well. The damage done to the Israeli wars ship last week, shows the possible existence of unmanned drones loaded with explosives.
And of course, Hezbollah has in the past relied on asymmetric warfare, deploying suicide bomber deep into Israeli territory. So, what are behind the tactics of both Hezbollah and Israel? Let's speak now to Nicholas Noe, an expert in Hezbollah from the Cambridge Center for International Studies and to Doctor Emmanuel Ottolengies, lecturer in Israeli Studies at Oxford University. Good evening to you both.
DOCTOR EMMANUEL OTTOLENGIES (OXFORD UNIVERSITY)
Good evening.
EMILY MAITLIS (BBC NEWS)
And I'll start with you first of all, Nicholas Noe, because much has been discussed about why Hezbollah decided to launch that attack initially on the Israeli soldiers, knowing full well what the response would be. What, why do you think that happened?
NICHOLAS NOE (CAMBRIDGE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES)
Well, there's debate going on right now, the extent to which they actually perceive the Israeli reaction, the massive Israeli reaction. I think, for analysts who have studied Hezbollah for a while, and especially Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, they have a very good understanding of the Israeli leadership. I, myself have visited their offices in Dahi, which are now bombed, which have several floors of media gathering operation that is really unrivalled in the region, and almost in the world. They, they track the Israeli media very well. They understand perceptions.
NICHOLAS NOE (CAMBRIDGE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES)
They understand splits in leadership etcetera. So, there is a strong argument that they understood that the Israeli leadership might retaliate so massively, that in fact it might cover over some of the internal divisions that exists in Lebanon, that in some ways have worked against Hezbollah for the last year since Syrian troops withdrew. So, it's an open question right now if they expected this. But, I, I tend to think that they did.
EMILY MAITLIS (BBC NEWS)
What do you make of, of that Emmanuel Ottolenghi?
DOCTOR EMMANUEL OTTOLENGIES (OXFORD UNIVERSITY)
I tend to make the contrary that there was a miscalculation on their part. They certainly were trying to create trouble for Israel and express solidarity to the Palestinians who were already fighting the Israelis on the other front that is already, that has been already open for sometime and that has been shadowed by the latest developments in Lebanon. But, they probably did not expect the full extent of Israel's response and the implications of this response for their role in Lebanon and for the wider region.
EMILY MAITLIS (BBC NEWS)
Now, Israel's response, as we've seen, has been massive militarily. As we were just hearing, they are very unevenly matched, unevenly matched sides, but Israel doesn't seem to be impacting much on Hezbollah's capability to fire rockets. Why is it not able to pin point more closely its targets and actually knockout these Hezbollah rocket attacks?
DOCTOR EMMANUEL OTTOLENGIES (OXFORD UNIVERSITY)
Let me make two points. The first about the balance of military power. Of course, force on the ground is never fully determined only by how many guns and bullets each side has. Israel is certainly very strong, but as Achilles' history teaches us, even an almost invulnerable power has an Achilles heel. And Israel is both strong, but vulnerable. And Hamas, pardon me, Hezbollah's rocket deployment in the south is precisely the arrow that can strike Achilles heel because of it's high mobility of these lower arc, short-ranged rockets, it is very hard to find them, to target them and to destroy them and that they can wreak havoc within civilian populated centers, even though they cannot decisively hurt Israel's military power. That's their strength and the fear that causes Israel to respond so strongly.
EMILY MAITLIS (BBC NEWS)
Nicholas Noe, do you think that the Israeli onslaught has had much of an impact on Hezbollah?
NICHOLAS NOE (CAMBRIDGE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES)
It's difficult to say if you're looking purely at the press reports, the Israeli press reports, if you're listening even mouthpiece, if you're listening to US media. It's very hard to know. I'll tell you this, having lived in Beirut and in Lebanon for the last three years and having traveled extensively in the south, they have had six years, by which to build up a substantial network of tunnels, of defenses, of revampments, etcetera, six years since Israel withdrew after 18 years of occupation in South Lebanon. So, it's quite a long time to fortify different positions to hide these highly mobile rocket launchers, and again we're talking about a range of rocket launchers, some of which, we haven't even seen yet. We saw the Israeli military say that they've destroyed one Zelzal rocket, which can reach Tel Aviv, they've said. We know that Hezbollah has more of these, Israeli intelligence has long said they have more of these. So, you know, more is to come, but the critical point they've had at the time.
EMILY MAITLIS (BBC NEWS)
It's interesting, I mean, why isn't Hezbollah launching these longer ranged missiles now? What was it holding them back?
NICHOLAS NOE (CAMBRIDGE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES)
Well, if you listen to what Hassan Nasrallah has said these last few days, and if you look at Hezbollah's actions since 1982 when ostensively they were formed in response to the Israeli invasion, what you see that's very fascinating is they are not an irrational military actor. They are not crazy. They are very calculating and they make moves based on Presidents, on where a conflict is going. Hassan Nasrallah said it yesterday in his speech that we did not strike the hypo-chemical factory because we know precisely how that would escalate the conflict into what he called, 'total chaos". They can, they have the capabilities, Israel has long said that they've had the capabilities. The question is, when that time will come to pass. This is a very rational, strategic military actor and it's been, actually the most successful one in the Arab world.
EMILY MAITLIS (BBC NEWS)
Emanuele Ottolenghi, can Israel crush Hezbollah military? It's tried to do that before and failed, could it do it now?
DOCTOR EMMANUEL OTTOLENGIES (OXFORD UNIVERSITY)
I don't think that's the goal of this operation. I don't think, I think the Israelis understand the difficulty of crushing Hezbollah military, let alone politically. Hezbollah has deep roots in Lebanon. What the Israeli's are trying to do is to create a very high price for Hezbollah to act in the fashion that triggered this crisis, namely by provoking, necessarily Israel, into response. And I think that it's too early to tell whether this is going to work. I think the Israel will try to neutralize as many rocket launchers as possible, exacting a heavy price on Hezbollah, while assuming that sooner or later the international community is going to intervene and interfere with the game that is being played by the two sides right now.
EMILY MAITLIS (BBC NEWS)
Emanuele Ottolenghi and Nicholas Noe, thank you both very much indeed.
DOCTOR EMMANUEL OTTOLENGIES (OXFORD UNIVERSITY)
Thank you.
NICHOLAS NOE (CAMBRIDGE CENTER FOR INTERNATIONAL STUDIES)
Thank you.
