July 2006

European leaders face knife's edge in Mideast "This should be Europe's hour," said Jean-Yves Haine, security expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. "Unfortunately, it will not be so." Haine was making a bitter reference to the beginning of the Yugoslav civil war in 1991. Believing then that Europe could stop the fighting on its own, Luxembourg's foreign minister at the time, Jacques Poos, said, "This is the hour of Europe, not the hour of the Americans." It turned out to be a...
Kaiser Hugos Macht Von der These der Amerikaner, Caracas' Waffenkäufe destabilisierten den halben Kontinent, halten Experten wenig. Ein Vertreter des Internationalen Instituts für Strategische Studien IISS sagte, Venezuela ersetze einfach altes Material durch neuzeitliches, rüste also weniger auf als nach. Tatsächlich sollen die Kalaschnikows belgische Sturmgewehre aus den Sechzigern ersetzen. Dass sie an die kolumbianische Guerilla weitergereicht werden, wie Washington sagt, dafür gibt...
Iran may think twice before quitting treaty "Iran puts great emphasis on its claim to the legal right to nuclear energy as stated in the NPT. To withdraw would undermine the legitimacy Iran values so highly," said Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. "Iran also understands the whole world would see such a move as signalling intent to use the nuclear programme for weapons purposes. Since they won't face biting sanctions anyway, they have everything to lose and nothing to gain by...
Mideast crisis renews U.S.-Europe tension "France is keen to restore a strong and sovereign Lebanon," said Jean-Yves Haine, a European security research fellow at the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London. "The U.S. angle is to put Hezbollah in the same box as the global war on terror: Hezbollah, Hamas and al-Qaida are all part of the same basket. The Europeans are more inclined to acknowledge the world is far more complex than this Bush mantra."
Hezbollah launches longer-range missiles "There's no force in Lebanon that can keep Hezbollah from throwing rockets into Israel," Mahmoun Fandy, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said in a telephone interview. "The government doesn't have the political will or strength to confront Hezbollah's militia, who could ransack the whole Lebanese state if they wanted to."
At SE Asian gathering, bid to engage N Korea China's influence as the North's dominant trading partner and only ally appears dubious. "China is not just going through the motions," says Mr. Fitzgerald, who served previously as deputy assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation. "China has been trying to reform North Korea from the bottom up.... I don't think anyone has that much leverage over North Korea."
Lebanon Stabilization Force Mr. JEAN-YVES HAINE (Research Fellow for European Security, International Institute for Strategic Studies): I don't buy that. HARRIS: Jean-Yves Haine is a research fellow at London's International institute for Strategic Studies. Mr. HAINE: The restraint on German forces would come from other aspect, which is basically the risk of casualties and the fear of casualties. And so they will be put in a terrain where risk are far less than others.
Army, Air Force, Navy on the way Rumsfeld, speaking at the International Institute for Strategic Studies Conference in Singapore in June, talked about China, North Korea and terrorism concerns that make the Pacific a greater focus for U.S. military readiness. At that conference, Rumsfeld said the rest of the world will be interested in seeing a more transparent China as far as its military "investments" are concerned. "You can't be successful economically and engage the rest of the world and have people...
South Ossetia Looks North Other analysts are divided on the significance of recent developments. “I don’t think the Georgians are ready to launch a military offensive,” says Oksana Antonenko, senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. “They still believe they might get an Action Plan for NATO accession, and they have several things that are more important to them than South Ossetia, and on which they don’t want to compromise."
Smoke and mirrors in the Shanghai spirit Speaking at a meeting of defense experts in Singapore in early June, US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld had criticized the SCO for inviting the Iranian president. “It strikes me as passing strange that one would want to bring into an organization that says it is against terrorism one of the leading terrorist nations in the world,” said Rumsfeld.
The west's moral erosion In a recent article for the International Institute for Strategic Studies journal, Kishore Mahbubani, dean of the School of Public Policy at Singapore University, analysed the precipitous decline of perceived western legitimacy. His principal argument was that it is essential for the US and its allies to be seen to abide by the same rules that they seek to impose on others. He proposed a recasting of the post-1945 Truman consensus, within which most nations acknowledged that the US sought to...
Hague urges 'balance' on nuclear technology William Hague has warned the West it risks losing the "moral argument" over nuclear weapons if it fails to share the peaceful benefits of nuclear technology. In a keynote speech on Monday, the shadow foreign secretary intervened in the debate over nuclear proliferation. With continuing fears over the Iranian and North Korean programmes, he gave his backing to arrangements that would allow both countries to continue with civilian power programmes.
Hague warning to nuclear powers Mr Hague will urge a ''workable balance'' between the need to prevent the spread of nuclear weapons and the ''legitimate aspirations'' for economic and technological progress. In a speech to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, he will also say that nuclear powers must share the benefits of nuclear technology. He will say: ''Our countries are perceived to be willing to undercut fundamental universal principles of the Non-Proliferation Treaty in an ad hoc fashion, according to...
Strength of Israel, Lebanon and Hezbollah Following is a brief summary of the military strengths of Israel, Lebanon and the Hezbollah militia, according to experts' estimates, notably the International Institute for Strategic Studies and the defence group Jane's: ISRAEL: Troop strength: 168,000, made up of 125,000 army, 35,000 air force, 8,000 navy. Also 408,000 reservists. Equipment: 3,630 tanks, 470 warplanes, 15 warships, 3 submarines, 200 nuclear warheads, Patriot missiles.
Germans Debate Participation in Lebanon Christopher Langton, the head of defense analysis at the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies, said not only would it be difficult to find competent troops but also to get agreement on the force make-up. Non-European countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh and India may be able to contribute troops, Langton said. But neither Israel nor Lebanon might agree to their presence, Langton said. "The wrangling over what countries' troops are acceptable to both sides cannot be...
Lebanese army faces no-win situation At the same time, Israel’s demand that the army replace Hezbollah in the south ignores the relative weakness of the official military compared with what some Lebanese, along with Iran and Syria, term Lebanon’s “national resistance” -- the Hezbollah movement. According to “The Military Balance”, an annual report published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, the Lebanese army numbers 70,000 troops, including conscripts.
Hezbollah's Skill More Military Than Militia Of greater concern to Israel, and the subject of much more speculation, is whether Hezbollah possesses the Iranian-made Zelzal 2 missile.The International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based information clearinghouse, estimates the range of that weapon at 60 to 240 miles, which would put virtually all Israeli cities within striking distance of southern Lebanon.
Many hurdles to deploying international force Christopher Langton, the head of defense analysis at the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies, said not only would it be difficult to find competent troops but also to get agreement on the force make-up. Non-European countries like Pakistan, Bangladesh and India may be able to contribute troops, Langton said. But would Israel or Lebanon agree to their presence, Langton asked. "The wrangling over what countries' troops are acceptable to both sides cannot be...
Hitting Lebanon army seen as risky strategy According to the "The Military Balance ", an annual report published by the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, the Lebanese army numbers 70,000 troops, including conscripts, of whom at most 25,000 or so have experience from the civil war. It has 310 main battle tanks, mainly old Soviet-made T-54 and T-55 models. It also has 1,257 armoured personnel carriers and 541 artillery pieces, as well as a paramilitary force of 13,000 men, a tiny air force of 1,100...
Hizbollah 'capable of sustained campaign' The chief element of the Lebanese-based militant group's campaign is the unsophisticated Katushya rocket, with a range of 25km-40km. Its inaccuracy only adds to its strong capacity to terrorise populations, because of the noise made by incoming rockets coupled with the uncertainty about where they will land. Christopher Langton, of the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, says the rockets have no strategic impact but could have a powerful psychological effect on...