By Daniel Dombey and Roula Khalaf
Iran yesterday raised the stakes in its nuclear dispute with the west, taking a gamble that will harden international attitudes and bolster attempts to report the case to the UN Security Council, a first step towards imposing sanctions against Tehran.
The intention to resume research and development work at the Natanz nuclear plant, if carried through, would mark another bold move in Iran's efforts to dilute the November 2004 Paris Agreement reached with the so-called EU3 - the UK, France and Germany.
The deal involved a voluntary suspension by Iran of all sensitive nuclear work as a confidence-building measure while negotiations with European powers on the fate of the nuclear programme were under way.
"We're at crisis point," said Mark Fitzpatrick, senior fellow for non-proliferation at London's International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS). "The Paris Agreement is dead."
In August, Iran resumed work at the Isfahan plant, where it converts raw uranium, or yellowcake, into feedstock gas known as uranium hexafluoride (UF6). The gas produced at Isfahan can be fed into centrifuges to make low-level enriched uranium for nuclear fuel or higher level uranium used in atomic bombs.
Yesterday Iran informed the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN's watchdog, that it planned to feed the UF6 into small-scale centrifuge cascades, therefore resuming limited uranium enrichment for what it described as research purposes. It also indicated it could resume the manufacturing of new centrifuge components.
Iran's planned experiments would not produce industrial-scale material that could be used in a bomb. But diplomats say it would bring Iran closer to mastering the nuclear technology. According to an IISS assessment of Iran's programme, Tehran could develop enough weapons-grade uranium to develop a
nuclear weapon within five years.
The resumption of enrichment has not yet started and Iran's declaration to the IAEA could still be reversed. But it came yesterday despite warnings from the US, Europe and Russia that it should not break the voluntary agreement. It was all the more surprising because Iranian negotiators were set to meet their European counterparts later this month to try to revive the Paris Agreement.
Three days ago, Iran had also agreed to another round of discussions with Russia on a compromise proposal designed to end the nuclear dispute. Moscow's offer would allow Iran to maintain the Isfahan conversion facility, but send the gas to Russia to be enriched.
Reading the intentions of Iran's opaque clerical regime is always tricky. But Iranian officials, who deny Tehran is seeking nuclear weapons, have stressed that Tehran would never give up the right to enrich uranium, guaranteed by the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, so long as it was for peaceful energy use. Despite suspicions about Iran's intentions, the IAEA has not yet found firm evidence of an Iranian nuclear arms programme.
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran's Supreme Leader and final decision-maker, is believed to have been frustrated with the suspension of nuclear work, which has delayed Iran's nuclear experiments. His regime could be threatening a resumption of enrichment as a negotiating tactic while Iranian officials pursue talks with Russia. Or it could be calculating that western governments will fail to agree on punitive measures against Iran even if the dispute is referred to the Security Council.
Diplomats say the arrival of Mahmoud Ahmadi-Nejad, the new fundamentalist Iranian president, who appears to thrive on deepening Iran's diplomatic isolation, hasalso complicated the nuclear dispute. The presidency has no direct responsibility over the nuclear file but the previous government of President Mohammad Khatami had been a moderatinginfluence within the regime.
Tehran may also have gained a false sense of comfort from the muted response to recent actions that had challenged the US and European governments.
Last summer, Tehran rejected a European proposal offering it economic and political incentives in return for a freeze on nuclear work, then decided to resume conversion at the Isfahan plant.
At first the EU reacted with anger, and supported a resolution at the September board meeting of the IAEA that found Iran in breach of its nuclear obligations, a step towards sending the issue to the Security Council. However, by the end of the year, the EU and the US were backing the Russian compromise proposal that would allow the plant to operate, but send the reprocessed fuel to Russia to be enriched.
The support for the Russian compromise marked a softening of US and European policy and underlined Iran's sought-after right to some nuclear experiments. Last month, the EU also agreed to renew contact with Iranian officials and look for ways of reviving talks.
Analysts yesterday said Iran had now jeopardised both tracks of talks and overplayed its hand. Unless it goes back on the enrichment decision in the next few days, an emergency IAEA meeting is likely to be convened later this month to consider a report to the Security Council.
The effectiveness of the international response, however, will depend largely on Russia, which is building Iran's Bushehr nuclear plant and signed in December a $1bn (€826m, £566m) defence deal with Tehran.
The US and the EU hope that if Russia agrees to refer Tehran to the Security Council, China will follow in its wake, rather than appear as Tehran's last champion.
Up to now, Moscow has refused even to contemplate relatively soft referrals to New York that would leave any question of sanctions to a later date. But European diplomats say that the Russians and Chinese are becoming increasingly frustrated with Iran.
The hardening attitude of Mohamed ElBaradei, the IAEA director, could influence the Russian and Chinese positions. Mr ElBaradei warned at the weekend that his agency and the international community were running out of patience.
