The head of Israel's Mossad spy agency argues that Iran is but six months away from "technical independence"--the know-how to make bombs without outside help--and about two years from building a weapon. Experienced analysts at the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington and the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London say at least three and five years, respectively. The CIA had estimated five years; then it doubled its timeline to up to 10 years. Says ISIS's David Albright, "the U.S. won't explain why."
By Thomas Omestad
Iran, if it goes for broke, should be able to build its first nuclear weapon in two years. Or five. Or perhaps up to 10. Take your pick; estimates vary widely because of a slew of frustrating uncertainties. Take one: Has Iran managed to keep some facilities secret?
The head of Israel's Mossad spy agency argues that Iran is but six months away from "technical independence"--the know-how to make bombs without outside help--and about two years from building a weapon. Experienced analysts at the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington and the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London say at least three and five years, respectively. The CIA had estimated five years; then it doubled its timeline to up to 10 years. Says ISIS's David Albright, "the U.S. won't explain why."
Consider a few of the uncertainties: At what rate can Iran produce the centrifuges needed for uranium enrichment? How soon can it master operating the "cascades" of connected centrifuges, figuring out how to dampen vibration and maintain a vacuum seal? How quickly can Iran complete the complex at Natanz, planned to house 50,000 centrifuges in vast underground halls? Allows Mark Fitzpatrick of IISS, "Estimating timelines can be a trap."
