By Scheherezade Faramarzi
BEIRUT, Lebanon – The young, bearded diplomat stretches back on his black leather sofa, speaking with the satisfaction of a CEO who has shattered Wall Street’s forecasts.
“Iran has never been so powerful in the region,” declares Najaf Ali Mirzai, who is media and cultural attaché at the Iranian Embassy in Beirut and wears a cleric’s robe. “Iran is now comfortably assured that it can respond to any kind of American aggression.”
Not since the 1979 revolution that brought Islamic clergy to power has Iran been so strong. It has expanded its influence in Iraq, in Lebanon, among the Palestinians, in Gulf states such as Bahrain and Kuwait, and even in parts of Afghanistan. It is improving its missiles and expanding a nuclear program that the West says aims to eventually produce bombs. Iran says the program is peaceful.
Its sophisticated campaign to spread its influence, sometimes in direct conflict with U.S. interests, is causing concern in the region and beyond. Many Arab governments still support the United States, but they cannot reject Iran.
“Iranians are playing with so many variables and they have so many trump cards,” said Abdullah al-Shayji, university professor in Kuwait, a key U.S. ally.
Predominantly Shiite Iran’s most valuable card and potent source of influence is Iraq.
The worsening Iraq violence has brought forward the question of whether the United States should reach out to Iran. The Bipartisan Iraq Study Group, headed by former Secretary of State James Baker III, suggests that Washington engage Iran and its ally Syria as part of a regional approach to ending the Iraq fighting.
So far, President Bush shows no signs of doing that, accusing Iran of arming and supporting insurgents in Iraq and subsidizing other extremists.
Iran, for its part, says it is only pressing for its legitimate nuclear rights and calls the United States a bully.
Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said U.S. troops are responsible for at least half the violence tearing apart Iraq and that their departure would pay security dividends for the entire region.
Past overtures have gone nowhere.
Although Arab countries such as Egypt remain strong U.S. allies, they say the tough situation in Iraq and America’s support for Israel in its summer war with Iranian-backed Hezbollah is hampering U.S.-led efforts elsewhere.
The fighting created an unprecedented anti-American unity between traditional Shiite and Sunni Muslim foes in many parts of the Mideast.
It also sealed Iran’s influence in the region, Mirzai contends. It was a “strategic” victory for Iran because Hezbollah held its own against the efforts of Israel’s powerful army to crush it.
And on Arab streets, it’s Ahmadinejad who is talked of admiringly these days, not Arab leaders.
The Arab leaders’ worries are evident in their statements.
Saudi Foreign Minister Saud Al Faisal recently blasted what he called “non-Arab intervention in the Arab world” – a clear reference to Iran.
Jordan’s King Abdullah II warned of a Shiite crescent sweeping across the region.
In April, Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak angered Shiite leaders by saying Shiites across the Mideast were more loyal to Iran than to their own countries.
