"Iran is a problem. Iraq is a problem. There are so many problems," analyst Abdulkhaleq Abdullah said following the Dialogue on Gulf Security held in the Bahraini capital.
"The issue is Washington. At the moment, Washington is in a state of confusion," said Abdullah, professor of political science at the Emirates University in Dubai.
After last week's report by the US bipartisan Iraq Study Group that recommended a change in President George W. Bush's strategy in Iraq and the Middle East, concerns over US policies dominated the Manama conference.
By Christian Chaise
MANAMA, Dec 12 2006
On top of the violence in Iraq and Iran's growing ambitions, the oil-rich Gulf monarchies are worried about the perceived political disarray of Washington on whom they rely for their security.
"Iran is a problem. Iraq is a problem. There are so many problems," analyst Abdulkhaleq Abdullah said following the Dialogue on Gulf Security held in the Bahraini capital.
"The issue is Washington. At the moment, Washington is in a state of confusion," said Abdullah, professor of political science at the Emirates University in Dubai.
After last week's report by the US bipartisan Iraq Study Group that recommended a change in President George W. Bush's strategy in Iraq and the Middle East, concerns over US policies dominated the Manama conference.
The six Gulf Arab monarchies, led by Saudi Arabia, are firstly worried by the violence in Iraq, whether between Sunnis and Shiites or carried out by Al-Qaeda linked insurgents, and the possibility of the unrest spilling over into neighbouring countries.
"There is talk of a long and bloody civil war, of a division of the country along ethnic or sectarian lines," said Bahraini Foreign Minister Sheikh Khaled bin Ahmad bin Mohammed al-Khalifa.
"This situation is a clear danger to the entire region."
As a result, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) leaders called unanimously Sunday from their annual summit in Riyadh for Baghdad to immediately dissolve the militias behind much of the unrest.
And amid Western-led diplomatic efforts to press Iran to renounce key nuclear technology, GCC members Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates announced their intention to seek nuclear technology for peaceful ends.
But the problems of Iraqi unrest and Iranian nuclear ambitions are made all the more pressing by Washington's perceived uncertainty and indecision.
"The future of Iraq is the key, and it depends a lot on US foreign policy," said F. Gregory Gause, associate professor of political science at the University of Vermont in the United States.
"Washington has to put its house in order," said Abdullah. "The image we are getting is 'who is really calling the shots at the moment?'"
But while the Gulf monarchies grow increasingly dissatisfied with Washington's policies on issues ranging from Baghdad to the Palestinian territories, they also know their security depends on the United States.
"American policy is in flux and Iran is on the rise," said Gause, who attended the conference in Manama, itself home to the US Fifth Fleet. "The Iranians are very confident."
Gulf monarchies are also concerned by Iran's rising influence as demonstrated by Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki calling from Manama for a change in the US attitude before Tehran helps in Iraq.
While Bush swiftly rejected calls by the Iraq Study Group for direct dialogue with Tehran, many of those attending the Manama conference believed it was only a matter of time before he changed his mind.
"The key to solve Iraq's problems is the withdrawal of foreign forces from Iraq," said Mottaki, adding that "the United States should help themselves before anybody else".
But for Abdullah, the departure of foreign troops from the region is unthinkable as "foreign presence is a fact of life", given Washington's stakes in the region.
Abdullah also admitted that the balance of regional power was changing, and not in Washington's favour. "Tehran is talking from a position of power, of confidence, of arrogance," he said.
