August 2006

Pakistan government must make amends to tribe Bugti's death, while unnecessary, could provide a "watershed" opportunity for Pakistan to mend fences with disgruntled Baluch opponents, said Patrick Cronin, an American expert on U.S.-Asian affairs at the London-based International Institute of Strategic Studies. But if they miss the chance, Musharraf may attract increased political and public opposition ahead of next year's vital elections for Pakistan's parliament, which is charged with choosing the next president. "If there...
Tony Jones interviews Mark Fitzpatrick So, was this mysterious defector the genuine article? Or could he be as flawed as the Iraqi defector the CIA called 'Curveball'? Joining us now in London is the report's author, Mark Fitzpatrick. He's spent 26 years in the US Foreign Service, including as Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Non-Proliferation.
Timeline: Iran Nuclear Crisis Sept., 2005: A study by the International Institute for Strategic Studies concludes that Iran is still several years away from acquiring a nuclear weapons capability. Speaking before the U.N. General Assembly, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad says his country has an "inalienable right" to produce nuclear fuel. The IAEA passes a resolution setting Iran up for referral to the U.N. Security Council at a later date, on the grounds of Tehran's non-compliance with international...
Iran faces sanction deadline "ElBaradei should report that the cumulative impact of this behaviour comes close to circumscribing the IAEA's ability to conduct even the routine inspections required under the NPT (nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty)," said Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. "The less information available, the more Iran restricts inspector access, the wider the window of uncertainty becomes and the more Western decision-makers must rely on worst-case...
King Abdullah Talks to Asharq Al-Awsat By Dr Mamoun Fandy, Senior Fellow for Gulf Security
RSAF may go for anti-missile shield Dr Tim Huxley, a defence analyst with London's International Institute for Strategic Studies, said: 'In the light of the proliferation of ballistic missiles in Asia, it seems logical for Singapore to look into ballistic missile defences as it assesses its requirements for future long-range air defence systems.'
Energy key to Japan's Central Asia ties "Japan has been a steady player in the region and has always had an interest in the SCO developing on its doorstep," said Col Christopher Langton of the International Institute of Strategic Studies. "In the game of regional politics, Japan feels it has a role to play in helping offset growing Russian and Chinese influence."
Negotiated nuclear settlement a possibility Im sure there will be high-level talks on whether there is some formula regarding sequencing of suspension, based on Irans hints that it could shelve enrichment as the upshot of talks to carry out the incentives, said Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The question is whether there is a basis to fudge the sequencing that is, Iran commits to suspension after a very short period of negotiations.
Iran Declares Another Nuclear Advance An operational reactor would put Iran among fewer than a dozen countries with heavywater technology. Among the other countries are the five permanent members of the U.N. Security Council the United States, Britain, France, Russia and China and Canada, India and Norway. The International Institute for Strategic Studies in London estimated that the heavy-water reactor, once up and running, would need a year to produce enough plutonium for a single "simple implosion...
Towards Zero Nukes But in the 12 years since the Nitze article, few analysts or senior officials have joined the debate on whether precision conventional weapons could do the job alone. But as Dennis Gormley argues in the current issue of the quarterly journal of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a careful analysis of the reports by both government and think-tanks shows that conventional weapons can do anything that a nuclear weapon might be called upon to do, and to do it with less casualties...
Russia rules out U.N. sanctions against Iran Mark Fitzpatrick at the International Institute for Strategic Studies said Russia's stance seemed to contradict the intention of the Council resolution but most diplomatic players remained keen to find a palatable alternative to sanctions. "I'm sure there will be high-level talks on whether there is some formula regarding sequencing of suspension" based on Iran's hint it could shelve enrichment as the upshot of talks to carry out the incentives, he said.
Cancer hits bomb scientist Khan Patrick Cronin, from the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London, said Dr Khan's condition would lead to renewed calls for access to the scientist that Pakistan would be unlikely to allow. ''In terms of critical information that would be lost forever once he goes, that's something that's going to be of considerable concern for security officials,'' he said.
Iran's offer for talks 'falls short,' Mark Fitzpatrick, a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of state for nonproliferation, noted that while the United States and its partners in dealing with Iran had been "pretty firm that the suspension has to come first before the negotiations, Iranians have been saying for some time that there should be talks about talks, prenegotiations, and apparently in their response they made that clear."
Iran calls the shots on nuclear tango with US Historically, Washington has considered - but abandoned - plans to eliminate emerging nuclear programmes from the onset, be it in the former Soviet Union during the 1950s, China in the 1960s or North Korea in the 1990s.Despite its lack of options, however, analysts agree that Washington still has some time - possibly years - to mull over difficult options such as a strike.The London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies estimates Iran will still need between three and five years...
Report Highlights Intelligence Gaps on Iran That the United States would benefit from greater intelligence on Iran's nuclear ambitions is beyond question, according to former Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Non-proliferation Mark Fitzpatrick, who currently directs the non-proliferation program at Britain's International Institute for Strategic Studies. "I think it would be helpful to know more. It would be great to have more human intelligence assets," he said. Fitzpatrick notes that the International Atomic Energy...
UN finalising Iran nuclear report "I think this is essentially a 'no' even though Iran will say that it found some positive elements in the incentive package," non-proliferation analyst Mark Fitzpatrick said from the London IISS think tank. "There is no basis for considering the package without an Iranian suspension of its enrichment activity, so this issue will go to the Security Council as soon as the IAEA reports on August 31 that Iran has not in fact suspended enrichment activity," Fitzpatrick said.
Iran reply may herald new confrontation Mark Fitzpatrick, senior fellow in non-proliferation at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, said: "This won't drag on for years. There are two deadlines of sorts at the end of 2008. That is the earliest date by which some people think Iran could acquire a nuclear weapon. I think the date is more like 2010. "And on November 2008, there is the US presidential election. President Bush will be inclined not to let this problem be passed on. There will be a growing...
West Ponders Next Step in Nuclear Dispute Mark Fitzpatrick, a nuclear proliferation experts at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, says Iran's position as a leading oil producer is not the only reason that tough sanctions will not be passed by the Security Council. "Oil certainly is a trump card, one of its trump cards. Another is its strategic position in Central Asia, which is very important to Russia," he said. "Russia and China both have commercial interests in Iran, and for Russia, these...
Time's Up For Iran Iran has signaled its intent to build a nuclear weapon, and soon. The International Institute for Strategic Studies last year estimated it might be "several years" before Iran got a bomb. But Western intelligence sources fear it could be much shorter -- giving Iran nuclear-tipped missiles with which to threaten Europe, its hated enemy Israel and its Sunni Muslim neighbors.
Aug 23 2006 - - Survival - Assessing Irans Nuclear Programme By Mark Fitzpatrick, Senior Fellow for Non-proliferation Survival Vol 48 no 3, Autumn 2006 Assessing Irans Nuclear Programme The many indicators of military involvement in Irans nuclear programme strongly suggest that Iran seeks more than just a latent nuclear-weapons capability, although not necessarily an all-out Manhattan Project-style effort. Depending on assumptions about technical variables, the earliest Iran might be able to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a...