By Ahmad Al-Khaled
Last week's announcement by Iran that it had, for the first time, successfully enriched uranium at its nuclear facility in Natanz, a town just 640 km from Kuwait City, has left world leaders questioning their next move. One thing, however, is certain -- Iran's next move.
Over the years, Iran has claimed several reasons for its nuclear development. The most absurd being the idea that Iran, that sits on the world's second largest gas reserves, is attempting to build facilities to provide for its future electricity needs and preserve its oil and gas for export. Iran currently exports electricity, oil and natural gas already, thus making the need for electricity producing nuclear plants negligible if not laughable.
Iran's nuclear programme consists of the following; a 5 MW research reactor (bought from the US in the 1960s), a 30 KW miniature neutron source reactor, a 1000 MW reactor currently being constructed via a contract with Russia, a uranium enrichment research laboratory in Natanz, and a heavy water facility in Arak, which is also under construction. But the greatest fear for the international community lies in its enrichment capabilities, which if further developed to the level scientists call "highly enriched uranium" capability, Iran will be able to build not just one nuclear bomb but bombs at a rate the International Institute for Strategic Studies said would be a bomb in just over two years with the 1,000 working centrifuges currently in use at Natanz and a mere 271 days to produce the same amount if Iran installed the 3,000 centrifuges it had declared it wants to install at Natanz.
During Iran's recent military exercises in the Gulf, the exercise spokesman said Iran wanted the US out of the region and will protect itself on its own soil and abroad if necessary. The exercise was, without question a show of force exhibiting surface to sea missile capability and torpedoes travelling 100 km per second. The show was meant to portray Iran's ability to target vessels and control the region. Estimates put Iran's combat aircraft at 341, transport aircraft at 114 and helicopters at 571, not to mention its 29 heavy SAM batteries, 95 light SAM launchers, and its Shahab 3 missiles with a range of 2000 km. The Shahab 3 missile, along with many other weapons Iran currently posses, can be fitted with a nuclear warhead. Its comparatively smaller navy at 56 combat vessels, 160 patrol craft, and 3 submarines would still be powerful enough to wreck havoc on the Strait of Hormuz, which serves as the gateway to the world's major oil suppliers.
Iran and GCC countries have a history of tension between them. Iran refuses to sign sea borders agreement with Kuwait, and continues to occupy islands the GCC maintains belong to the UAE. In the 1980s, Iran attacked multiple GCC oil tankers, citing GCC support for Iraq in the Iran-Iraq War. Clearly Iran has acted offensively against its Gulf neighbours in the past. After its military exercises in the Gulf coming strategically before the announcement of its successful uranium enrichment programme, a plan to, at the least dominate, if not ultimately control the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz may not be far off.
Iran has a history of exaggerating its military capabilities but if current estimates are accurate, Iran's ability to disrupt oil supplies and turn the Gulf on its ear, make its 1980s assaults look like minor skirmishes. Iran has become a clear and present danger to GCC countries and the stability of the region.
According to the US State Department, the US has developed a strategy which it calls counter proliferation. In the US model, countries attempting to proliferate nuclear weapons would be subject to sanctions and an active plan of export controls and attempts to interrupt their procurement efforts. Experts say that without outside help, countries like Iran cannot fully develop their nuclear programmes. North Korea, China, Russia, and Georgian experts have all assisted the development of Iran's nuclear programme...to what extent they are culpable if Iran completes its endeavor toward making a nuclear bomb is uncertain. The US itself may have to some extent contributed to Iran's programme in the form of the 1960's sale of the research reactor currently in use in Tehran.
Regardless of who is responsible, counter proliferation may be the only thing standing between Iran and "the bomb" and in the end, the best long-term solution to what, if left unanswered, may erupt into unimaginable consequences. Sanctions against Iran are highly likely to occur within the coming months.
