By Alistair Lyon
LONDON, Sept 27 (Reuters) - The script calls for Iraq's rival communities to unite around a freshly-minted democratic constitution, calming the insurgency, while Iraqi security forces gradually replace departing U.S. and British soldiers.
Realistic exit strategy or fantasy? That may depend on the time-frame, but doubters say time may only make things worse.
In Washington and London, leaders say their troops will stay as long as it takes to stabilise Iraq despite polls showing voters increasingly dismayed by the daily carnage there.
This could be a very long haul indeed.
"In terms of the Iraqis standing on their own feet, those feet will be shaky for many years," a British foreign office official said. "The transition from U.S. and British troops to Iraqi security forces will also be a long-term process."
Critics say both the political and security pillars of the U.S.-British policy look flimsy amid unrelenting violence that has cost many thousands of Iraqi lives. More than 2,000 U.S. and British troops have also died since the 2003 invasion.
This month's confrontation in Basra between British troops and the Iraqi police they were training fuelled existing doubts about the capacity and loyalty of the fledgling Iraqi forces.
"It's a problem, it's a very serious concern," said the British official, who asked not to be named.
Iraq's own national security adviser admitted insurgents had infiltrated the security forces. Militias, some linked to parties in the government, are gaining a grip on the police, army and administration, former prime minister Iyad Allawi said.
"We see militias are prevailing now, we see sectarian allocations in various government offices are the order rather than exception. They are also being introduced in the security apparatus," the secular Shi'ite politician said on Monday.
Such dynamics could undermine the value of any new blueprint for governing a society according to the rule of law.
"Who is going to enforce the niceties of the constitution?" asked Charles Tripp, a historian at London's School of Oriental and African Studies. "Patronage, favouritism and ruthlessness are re-establishing themselves, in a regional way."
LEADERSHIP VACUUM
The Sunni Arabs, leaderless since the overthrow of Saddam Hussein, also have resentments that go beyond arguments about the constitution. "They are responding to visceral fears about the balance of power in postwar Iraq," Tripp said.
Iraqis vote on Oct. 15 in a referendum on a constitution to be followed by elections in December in a process that is supposed to stabilise Iraq and enshrine a democratic future.
But adoption of a draft constitution bitterly rejected by Sunni Arabs and the election of a new government dominated by their Shi'ite and Kurdish rivals could hasten Iraq's break-up, according to the International Crisis Group (ICG) think-tank.
"The country's feared descent into civil war and disintegration, with mass expulsions in areas of mixed population (including Baghdad, Basra, Mosul and Kirkuk), could well become a reality," said an ICG report released on Monday.
Such grim scenarios are not shared, at least publicly, by the Bush administration or its British allies.
After Saudi Foreign Minister Saud al-Faisal said in Washington last week that Iraq was heading for disintegration, State Department spokesman Sean McCormack responded: "We see a situation in Iraq in which the Iraqi people at every opportunity have chosen to pull together in the political process."
Toby Dodge, an analyst at Queen Mary College, University of London, said the draft constitution might have some utility for public opinion in the United States, but not for Iraq.
"The Americans have been pushing a series of theatrical events, including creation of the Iraqi governing council, the January elections and now the constitution," he said. "None of them has helped the situation in Iraq. Most have made it worse."
Dodge said the one bright spot was that Sunni Arabs were mobilising to try to vote down the constitution, which can be blocked if two thirds of voters in three provinces oppose it.
"It's the first time previously alienated people have been ready to take part in a democratic process," he said. "It may mark a point of engagement. It's driven by Sunnis outside formal politics who have always been against the occupation."
But he acknowledged the Sunnis were unlikely to succeed in thwarting the constitution, even if followers of radical Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr also vote against a document whose federal provisions they too see as fatal to Iraqi nationalism.
Even if the constitution does not have the dire impact predicted by the ICG, it will not defeat the insurgency and enable U.S. and British forces to pull out any time soon.
"There's no deadline, but it's not going to be accomplished overnight," the British official said.
(Additional reporting by Suleiman al-Khalidi in Amman)
