By Peter Graff
LONDON, Sept 20 (Reuters) - A burning British soldier scrambles out of his flaming tank as angry Iraqis hurl rocks and petrol bombs. The striking images from Basra are splashed across the front page of nearly every British newspaper.
A few months ago British Prime Minister Tony Blair might have suffered the fallout. Now, safely re-elected for a third and final term, the war in Iraq can no longer bring him down.
"The pictures are very dramatic, and I think it's possible for opponents of the government to get some mileage. But it will not shake the government," said Wyn Grant, professor of politics at Warwick University in Britain. "The election is over."
But it can still change the way history remembers Blair.
London says it will keep its 8,500 troops in Iraq as long as they are needed and the Iraqi government wants them there.
But the signs are that Britain's Iraq adventure is in its endgame. A leaked memo signed by Defence Secretary John Reid in July envisioned bringing most of them home over the next year.
London has also promised to take control of a NATO force in Afghanistan next year, and most military experts expect its Iraq operation would have to be reduced to free up the forces.
Political analysts say the British prime minister will not want history to recall he abandoned the country he chose to invade, nor to leave his likely successor in a fix over Iraq.
"It does effect his legacy adversely. Because then people will associate his premiership with Iraq first and foremost," said Grant at Warwick University.
Blair is expected to hand over to his heir apparent, Finance Minister Gordon Brown, some time in the next 2 to 3 years, and analysts say both would be keen to have the troops home safely before the transition.
"(Otherwise) it creates a difficult situation for Gordon Brown to inherit, which I don't think Blair wants to do."
From British officials, the message is: nothing has changed. "The strategy continues to work toward the creation of a fully democratic Iraq," Blair's spokesman said.
"British armoured vehicles being attacked by a violent crowd, including with petrol bombs, makes graphic television viewing," Britain's commander on the ground, Brigadier John Lorimer, said in a statement.
"But this was a small unrepresentative crowd: 200-300 in a city of 1.5 million."
Iraq experts said the riots in Iraq on Monday, which occurred during an operation to free two British soldiers Britain said were held by militia, show the situation in cities under British control is far worse than London has so far acknowledged.
"A myth had been perpetrated that the Brits are great and everything's OK in Basra. But the softly-softly approach was not nation-building," said Toby Dodge, an Iraq analyst at Queen Mary's College, University of London.
