Iran is several years away from producing a nuclear weapon but may wait for at least a decade before it makes that decision, a leading international think tank said Tuesday.
John Chipman, director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said, "Iran's nuclear option is not imminent. On purely technical grounds, Iran appears to be at least several years away from producing enough fissile material for a nuclear weapon, and whether Iran has the expertise to fabricate a nuclear weapon from this material is unknown."
Chipman was launching the think tank's latest strategic dossier, "Iran's Strategic Weapons Programmes - A Net Assessment."
He said, however, that several years was a "worst case scenario," and Iran is more likely to be more cautious in an effort to divide international opposition and avoid confrontation.
"Rather than a dash for a bomb, Iran may seek gradually to acquire a much more substantial nuclear production capability over a decade or more -- for example by completing a large-scale centrifuge plant for producing nuclear fuel -- before it decides whether to exercise a weapons option," he said.
Chipman said diplomats face a "delicate" situation over the coming months.
They need to apply pressure and offer inducements in an attempt to stop Iran from developing a fuel cycle. At the same time, they need to apply pressure in such a way which does not inspire Iran to abandon all restraint and rush to develop a nuclear weapon.
Tehran, which has always said that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes, attracted international criticism last month for resuming its uranium reprocessing activities.
This followed efforts by the so-called EU3 -- Britain, France and Germany -- to stop Iran from developing its work using uranium.
The issue of Iran's nuclear program now risks being referred from the International Atomic Energy Agency to the United Nations Security Council.
