25 October 2005: Fox News
GIBSON: The good news out of Iraq, word's finally come that that constitution did pass. The bad news, the AP reporting today, the U.S. death toll has hit the 2,000 mark -- 2,000 dead American soldiers.
One leading military think tank says U.S. troops will probably have to remain in Iraq until well after the 2008 presidential elections.
Joining us now, Patrick Cronin, he's director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies and a former assistant administrator for the U.S. agency for international development.
So, look the 2,000 mark is bad. That is obviously a bad thing. How big a deal is it that, in fact, those Iraqis did pass that constitution?
PATRICK CRONIN, INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES: Well, it's an important milestone. And of course, it sets up the general election in mid-December and therefore by January of 2006, we are going to have the first all-Iraqi, post-Saddam government. That's going to be a critical time for the Iraqis to stand up.
You know that 2,000 number, it's a good time to reflect on what our brave men and women in uniform do. But also, let's remember that the Iraqis are paying the biggest price.
In the last six months, four times as many security forces of Iraq have died as opposed to U.S. forces, and that's continued to be a trend. That is, the Americans are receding into the background over time, but we project that's going to be a lot longer than a lot of people assume.
GIBSON: Well, what about this 2008 business? I mean, I guess that the way that works out is that people in your business now figure that there's just no way George Bush is getting U.S. troops out of Iraq and it's going to be his successor, Democrat, Republican, whoever.
CRONIN: I think the three main reasons why we would forecast that it's likely President Bush's successor will have to keep sizable forces inside Iraq.
The first one is the nature of the conflict. What we call complex irregular warfare in our new military balance, which was just released today. The rejection of Sunnis, in particular, are not easily going to be brought into a negotiated settlement.
Secondly, it's the nature of institution-building. It takes a long time to build institutions, especially professional militaries. And it's going to have to be a tripling, really, of the effective fighting force of Iraq. That's going to take another five years.
And then finally, it's the lack of alternatives. There simply is no alternative to fill the security vacuum other than to allow anarchy.
GIBSON: What is the real danger of this insurgency, worst-case scenario?
CRONIN: Well, we can delve into worst-case scenarios. I think what we've been trying to do is to strive in the middle. That is, many people hope that removing the dictatorship of Saddam Hussein would lead to democracy.
Let's at least avoid anarchy. Let's strive for building an Iraqi institution, an Iraqi-led government over time. This constitutional referendum that passed today is historic. It is a step forward. We are training more military and security forces. However, they are not going to be ready to defend all of Iraq against this insurgency in the next few years.
And so, the pressure for drawdown in 2006 is premature. At best, it will be an incremental withdrawal of a few forces, maybe 20,000, 30,000. But, we have to keep large numbers in for a few years.
GIBSON: Patrick Cronin -- Patrick, thank you very much, appreciate it.
