Iraq remains "very unstable" and violent unrest looks set to grow, even if political talks remain the best way forward, an influential international security think-tank said Tuesday.
"US plans to shift the burden of fighting the insurgency from their own forces to the newly trained Iraqi army have not to date borne dividends," said director John Chipman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
Iraq remains "very unstable" and violent unrest looks set to grow, even if political talks remain the best way forward, an influential international security think-tank said Tuesday.
"US plans to shift the burden of fighting the insurgency from their own forces to the newly trained Iraqi army have not to date borne dividends," said director John Chipman of the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
"Overall, Iraq continues to be a very unstable country. ... With US plans for indigenisation not making progress, lawlessness and sectarian violence look set to increase."
Chipman spoke at the launch of the IISS's annual "Military Balance" report coinciding with news from Baghdad that Iraqis who voted in a referendum earlier this month had approved a new constitution.
Chipman said political negotiations, especially between US diplomats and the Shia-led United Iraqi Alliance, "are the best possible way to limit and eventually end the insurgency".
Patrick Cronin, director of studies at the IISS, said US President George W. Bush would strive to build up the new Iraqi government and its armed forces so that US troops can be withdrawn by late 2006.
But Cronin doubted whether Washington would meet that deadline.
"We're likely to see continued instability and bloodshed inside Iraq. This is a long-term proposition," he said.
"I would expect the next US administration (that would take office in January 2009) to have forces inside Iraq in fairly large numbers for some years to come."
On the Iraqi insurgency, Chipman said it "continues to innovate technologically" as it retains the ability to kill and maim Iraqi and US military personnel.
"The increased use of shaped explosive charges in roadside bombs to attack coalition armoured vehicles has spread to the British zone in the south of the country," it added.
"The resultant increase in British casualties had led the British government to accuse elements within the Iranian government of supporting attacks on their forces."
