Despite some progress in building democratic constitutions in Iraq following the 30th January 2005 elections, the ongoing insurgency continues to hamper the reconstruction of the state infrastructure and the establishment of a working economy, according to an authoritative survey published here Tuesday.
In its "Military Balance 2005-2006" the respected International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said that the insurgency has continued to focus its attacks on the US, coalition and Iraqi security forces, and increasingly, on the Shia population.
LONDON, Oct 25 (KUNA) -- Despite some progress in building democratic constitutions in Iraq following the 30th January 2005 elections, the ongoing insurgency continues to hamper the reconstruction of the state infrastructure and the establishment of a working economy, according to an authoritative survey published here Tuesday.
In its "Military Balance 2005-2006" the respected International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said that the insurgency has continued to focus its attacks on the US, coalition and Iraqi security forces, and increasingly, on the Shia population.
In its section on the Middle East and North Africa, the independent think tank said the possibility of a civil war has so far been avoided by the considerable restraint exercised by a large number of communities in Iraq.
On suicide bombings, the Institute said in the 448-page document that they have become the insurgents weapon of choice.
It listed a number of extremely vicious attacks which led to the killing and injury of so many people in the country.
While the suicide bombings have done much to destabilise the country by increasing fear and uncertainty, kidnapping and murder are also tactics frequently used by insurgents, it pointed out.
In addition to attacks on civilians insurgents continue to target Iraqi security forces.
IISS suggested that the main purpose of these attacks is to deter Iraqis from joining the counter insurgency effort and to frustrate coalition plans to hand over some areas and tasks to indigenous security elements. Turning again to the political process, the research centre said that those political groupings seeking to reject the current political settlement will not be easy to draw into negotiations and will want key concessions involving the commitment to US withdrawal and a major stake in any new government.
On the referendum on the constitution, IISS believed it is far from certain even after the outcome of the plebiscite is known that there will be a comparable turnout in the next general election scheduled for December 15.
If rejectionist groups are not drawn into talks, then the December elections could resemble the vote in January 2005 with the Sunni community largely boycotting the whole event, it warned.
Overall, the report said that Iraq continues to be a very unstable country.
The last six months have been marked by increased sectarian tension and violence.
Referring to Iran, the IISS said that the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) board of governors took the long-delayed step on September 24th of formally finding Iran in non-compliance with its nuclear safeguards agreement.
To the Western allies, unless Iran stops its uranium conversion work and cooperates fully with the IAEA, it should be reported to the UN Security Council in New York, when the board next meets on 24-25 November.
UN Security Council referral would be assured if the IAEA next report were to contain evidence of military involvement in the nuclear programme, the IISS stressed.
Potential UN Security Council actions range from a call on Iran voluntarily to forego enrichment and repossessing, to a Chapter 7 requirement that it do so, to a formal Chapter 7 decision that a proven Iranian nuclear capacity for military ends would be a threat to international peace and security, thus rendering null and void any attempt by Iran to withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty.
