By Mitch Potter
Hopes for the future Iraq entered a pivotal and potentially decisive phase yesterday with passage of a new Iraqi constitution, setting in motion full-term elections in December amid renewed fears of an upsurge in violence.
Political analysts saw little to celebrate in results of the Oct. 15 referendum showing 79 per cent of Iraqis supporting a charter that underpins the foundations of a decentralized federalist state.
The question now is whether Iraq's Sunni Arab minority can be enticed to continue the march toward politcs and away from revolt. The group has been embittered by a first brush with democracy that failed to quash the opposition it believes skews power toward Shiite Muslims and Iraqi Kurds.
"It was very important that the Sunni Arabs participated in the voting. But now they are experiencing the disappointment and it is completely unclear if they will engage further," said Joost Hiltermann, an Amman-based analyst with the International Crisis Group. "The situation is potentially very dangerous, because now the only way to amend the constitution will ultimately involve another referendum, which the Kurds, for example, have already promised they will reject. What is required is continued Sunni involvement in the December elections and beyond. They have now shown signs of consenting to a political process. Unless it can be sustained, I see it headed toward civil war, and the disintegration of Iraq."
Hiltermann's caution was reinforced by a similarly bleak assessment by a British think-tank, which warned yesterday that lawlessness and sectarian violence is likely to increase Iraq despite the apparent constitutional breakthrough.
"U.S. plans to shift the burden of fighting the insurgency from their own forces to the newly trained Iraqi army have not, to date, borne dividends," John Chipman, director of the International Institute for Strategic Studies, said in London. "Overall, Iraq continues to be a very unstable country ... With U.S. plans for indigenization not making progress, lawlessness and sectarian violence look set to increase."
In an untimely coincidence, U.S. officials yesterday confirmed that three new fatalities have raised to 2,000 the number of American soldiers killed since the conflict began in 2003.
Just as voting in the constitutional referendum broke along sectarian lines, so, too, did Baghdad's reaction to the results. Many Shiite Muslims and Kurds spoke enthusiastically of a firmer political horizon. But throughout the city Sunni Muslims expressed anger, frustration and doubt over official numbers showing the constitution had passed.
"The constitution is an American arrangement totally, even before the voting," said Abu Ali, 35. "That's why the result will not change our situation. All it shows is that Iraqis are like dolls in the hands of Americans."
But not all Iraqis echo the constraints of the emerging sectarian divisions. Baghdad butcher Samir Rasheed, 60, a Sunni Muslim, welcomed the constitution as "a law to stop a new dictator from jumping to power.
"We still must improve this constitution, but that can come later. It must be clear on the Iraqi share of the oil, because we (Sunnis) need to guarantee our future," Rasheed added.
Sunnis fear the Kurdish majority in the petroleum-rich north and Shiites in the similarly blessed south could use constitutional provisions to pocket the lion's share of oil revenues. The ICG's Hiltermann said the kind of non-sectarianism expressed by Rasheed remains the best hope for a way forward toward stability.
"Part of the picture is that there is a wellspring of non-sectarianism in Iraq. A great many Iraqis see themselves as Iraqis first," said Hiltermann. "We need to build on it. I'm not sure that we have enough time, but it is critically important that the international community support these efforts."
With files from Amir Mohsen in Baghdad.
