Substantial numbers of American troops will have to stay in Iraq well beyond the end of the Bush presidency, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies predicted yesterday.
“I think the next US administration will have forces in Iraq for some time to come,” said Patrick Cronin, director of studies at the influential institute.
Speaking after the publication of the institute’s annual Military Balance, an assessment of the world’s armed forces, he said that he did not envisage any significant reduction of the 140,000 US troops in Iraq before President Bush left office at the beginning of 2009.
By Michael Evans, Defence Editor
SUBSTANTIAL numbers of American troops will have to stay in Iraq well beyond the end of the Bush presidency, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies predicted yesterday.
“I think the next US administration will have forces in Iraq for some time to come,” said Patrick Cronin, director of studies at the influential institute.
Speaking after the publication of the institute’s annual Military Balance, an assessment of the world’s armed forces, he said that he did not envisage any significant reduction of the 140,000 US troops in Iraq before President Bush left office at the beginning of 2009.
The Americans, and their British partners in southern Iraq, hoped that their training of the new Iraqi army would provide them with an exit strategy as the indigenous forces took over responsibility for security.
John Chipman, the institute’s director, said, however: “US plans to shift the burden of fighting the insurgency from their own forces to the newly trained Iraqi army have not to date born dividends, with the Iraqi security forces remaining largely incapable of independent action.”
There had also been serious absenteeism among Iraqi army recruits, Christopher Langton, the author of Military Balance, said.
Dr Chipman said that the insurgency still retained the ability to kill Iraqi, US and British soldiers and continued to innovate technologically.
“Although there has been relatively good news on the political front [elections in January and the referendum on the constitution this month], there remains a profound security vacuum dominating the lives of the Iraqi population,” Dr Chipman said.
He gave warning that with US plans for training Iraqi forces not making sufficient progress, “lawlessness and sectarian violence look set to increase”.
However, the past six months of increased sectarian tension and violence did not yet indicate a looming civil war. “Each community remains internally divided, and those perpetrating violence on either side do not represent the interests of a sizeable fraction of their respective communities,” Dr Chipman said.
