The Institute for Strategic and International Studies said regional troubles, failures of the Nonproliferation Treaty, black market supply networks and poor leadership could lead to a terrorist group acquiring a nuclear bomb, the Scottish Press Association reported yesterday.
“The most chilling possibility is the acquisition of a nuclear weapon by al-Queda or a similar terrorist group dedicated to inflicting mass civilian casualties and impervious to threats of retaliation,” the Institute writes in its annual Strategic Survey.
By Gavin Cordon
The Institute for Strategic and International Studies said regional troubles, failures of the Nonproliferation Treaty, black market supply networks and poor leadership could lead to a terrorist group acquiring a nuclear bomb, the Scottish Press Association reported yesterday.
“The most chilling possibility is the acquisition of a nuclear weapon by al-Queda or a similar terrorist group dedicated to inflicting mass civilian casualties and impervious to threats of retaliation,” the Institute writes in its annual Strategic Survey.
“The possible emergence of new nuclear-weapon states in North Korea and Iran, the threat of nuclear terrorism around the globe and the relaxed pace of nuclear disarmament strongly suggest the existing nuclear non-proliferation regime — with the NPT at its core — is eroding,” the book says. “Moreover, it is being replaced with an ‘every man for himself’ mentality that, if left unchecked, could spawn a new generation of nuclear weapons and increase the risk that the transnational Islamist terrorist network over which Osama bin Laden loosely presides becomes a nuclear power.”
The Institute urges existing nuclear powers to recommit to the NPT and the United States to reopen direct diplomatic relations with North Korea.
It also urges Western governments to build relationships with Islam to curtail the Iranian threat.
The survey also suggests that current antiterrorism tactics are not sufficient.
“A better Western political accommodation with Islam — more a function of soft rather than hard power — was also required,” the survey says. “While European Muslims aggrieved by adverse circumstances in their host countries derive energy and political affirmation from al-Qaeda, their support for its maximalism could flag if conditions for Muslims in Europe improve.”
The survey is critical of past U.S. actions in particular, saying U.S. efforts have helped terrorist organizations recruit new personnel. However, the United States has recently realized the benefits of less aggressive tactics, which could weaken terrorists’ networks.
“Eventually, ideological cracks could emerge from agendas and degrees of commitment among jihadists,”
the report says.
