(Kyodo) Restrictions on would-be nuclear powers have become "more blurred" between 2004 and 2005, making it harder to address North Korea's and Iran's ongoing nuclear programs, a London-based think tank said Tuesday.
By relying on multilateral diplomacy involving China, Japan, Russia and South Korea, while busying itself with Iraq, the United States now not only faces a "far more complicated and subtle diplomatic task" in moving forward with North Korea, but will also be under much more intense pressure to establish standards by consensus, the International Institute for Strategic Studies said in an annual report.
The institute's Strategic Survey 2004/2005 said the "best hope" for discouraging North Korea and Iran from continuing their nuclear programs and others from commencing them would be to "revamp the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty," which is currently under review in New York.
Though the survey's authors do not underestimate the complexity of reviving and implementing the NPT,
they cite it as a key measure in reversing the confusing signals of military versus diplomatic action Washington is sending out that have allowed "Pyongyang to try to get away with as much as (it) can."
Despite conflicting messages from the United States, the report outlined that Pyongyang's "roguish behavior" had the effect of strengthening Japan's relationship with the United States.
The report further highlighted the constructive relationship between Tokyo and Washington, stating that Japanese Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi's unambiguous support for the U.S.-led initiative in Iraq reflects the "close personal affinity" between Koizumi and U.S. President George W. Bush.
The report said Japan's close working relationship with the United States also reflects Tokyo's calculation that global cooperation can only help to advance its regional interests -- notably North Korea's nuclear weapons program and the unaccounted for Japanese citizens abducted by North Korea in the 1970s and 1980s --alongside its renewed diplomatic initiative to win a permanent U.N. Security Council seat.
The annual report reflected that state-building in Iraq continued to be the single most resonant issue in world affairs in early 2005, quoting "guarded hope" as the watchword for the imminent future.
In contrast to the highlighted progress in Iraq, the report summarized that, "Unsurprisingly, the Gulf state that proved hardest to manage was Iran," adding that averting a crisis later in the year would depend on whether the European Union and the United States could agree on an acceptable definition of Iran's "cessation" of nuclear activities.
On the ongoing issue of transnational Islamist terrorism, the survey said al-Qaida remains a dangerous terrorist organization with "immense iconic power," but that as of late 2004, al-Qaida "presided only very loosely over an informal confederation of terrorist outfits."
Turning to Africa, the report criticized the Commission for Africa report launched by Prime Minister Tony Blair in March in the run-up to the British presidency of the Group of Eight as being "short on substance and new ideas," and stated it seems unlikely that Britain, "let alone other major powers, could shift policy so radically as to make a serious difference in short order."
On an apolitical level, the report mentioned the massive tsunami that devastated Indonesia and other Asian countries last Dec. 26 as bringing a "momentary surge of international solidarity." But it criticized the wider international community for not taking further advantage of this unexpected bridge-building opportunity further.
