By Madeline Chambers
LONDON, May 24 (Reuters) - Prime Minister Tony Blair's mission to clinch a global deal to tackle poverty in Africa, where 6,500 people die of preventable diseases every day, risks falling flat, aid agencies and political insiders say.
This month's election in Britain has distracted Blair who has staked his reputation on helping the world's poorest continent during Britain's presidency of the G8 group of industrialised nations this year.
The crunch comes in just six weeks when Blair, who calls Africa a "scar on the conscience of the world", hosts G8 leaders at a summit in Gleneagles in Scotland.
"We are really concerned that we're a long, long way away from any kind of breakthrough on tackling poverty in Africa," said Oxfam policy adviser Max Lawson.
Campaigners are worried that discord between G8 nations on debt reduction and aid spending plans, combined with a reluctance from Washington, will wreck Blair's ambitions.
They warn African schools and hospitals may end up getting no new money from the lavish 3-day summit which could cost as much as 100 million pounds ($180 million) to stage.
As Blair prepares for a tour of world capitals before the meeting to drum up support, a move critics say smacks of panic, British officials are already dampening expectations of a breakthrough agreement in Scotland.
"We'll push the agenda forward at Gleneagles and then we'll keep going afterwards," said Blair's spokesman, who also acknowledged there was "some way to go" to agreement.
Blair will see George W. Bush in Washington and the leaders of Italy, France, Germany and Russia in a hectic diplomatic shuttle over the next month.
London's International Institute for Strategic Studies has also voiced concern. In its annual survey it said it looked unlikely that Britain could shift policy so radically as to make a serious difference.
It also criticised the Commission for Africa, a group of experts appointed by Blair who published a blueprint for action.
"The report was long on ambition, enshrining the intention ... to more decisively tackle poverty, governance, corruption, trade and arms control issues in Africa. But it was short on substance and new ideas," said the IISS.
EU CHALLENGE
Blair should start by pressing his European partners, say aid agencies. Top of the list comes Germany which is delaying due to a big budget deficit and weak economic growth.
The EU has made some progress by agreeing on aid targets.
The bloc's 15 old member states have pledged to contribute 0.7 percent of gross national income by 2015 to meet United Nations goals in a step EU officials say will cost Europeans the equivalent of three cinema tickets.
But campaigners want more, sooner.
"We really want the G8 and EU to commit to 0.7 percent by 2010. The amount is small and if they were serious they'd do it," said Action Aid policy adviser Romilly Greenhill.
Scandinavian countries are top of the aid donor table with Britain about half way down and the United States near the bottom, according to OECD figures.
London hopes an EU deal might increase pressure on Japan, Canada and the world's biggest economy, the United States.
But, aware that Bush has no desire to pledge more cash, British officials seem to have set their sights low, seeking rhetorical support rather than concrete action.
"We want the United States to welcome our plans and to package what they are doing with what we are doing," said a senior British official.
Washington is also unpersuaded by Britain's International Finance Facility (IFF) plan aimed at bridging the $50 billion gap between development funds and estimated future needs.
The U.S. prefers to pay off debt, a move campaigners say could see aid going directly to African people cut.
One idea being floated is agreeing on a "mini IFF" of just $5 billion for an immunisation programme. That falls 10 times short of Britain's original proposal.
"As it stands we may only get a "mini IFF" and maybe another one next year on education and another the year after on something else," said Action Aid's Greenhill.
