Europe, notably Russia, faces potential instability on its eastern edges in coming years if a wave of anti-government popular feeling takes hold, a leading think-tank argued in a report on Tuesday.
As events in Ukraine and other countries showed, "the concept of 'former Soviet space' became history" during 2004, leaving Moscow with less and less clout over its former vassal states, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said.
Russia's "maladroit" backing of incumbent president Victor Yanukovich in Ukraine's political crisis of November 2004, which saw Viktor Yushchenko eventually take power, illustrated this, the London-based IISS said.
The borders of Europe and Asia, where Kyrgyzstan's president Askar Akayev was also ousted in March, appeared in danger of becoming increasing unstable, the think-tank said in its 384-page Strategic Survey 2004/5.
To ensure stability, the region's political elites needed to quickly deliver political and economic change, while Russia, Europe and the United States must also cooperate, it argued.
"There are growing concerns that governments in countries which so far have managed to contain mass popular protests could take drastic measures to safeguard their regimes and resort to repression and violence," the report said.
It was written before a military crackdown earlier this month on protestors in the east of Uzbekistan, which witnesses, rights groups and opposition activists say killed as many as 1,000 people.
"At the same time, if popular uprisings spread to other states in Eurasia, the region could be thrown into a period of instability, with worrying consequences for neighbouring Europe and Asia," the report continued.
Following the Beslan school siege of September last year in which 318 people died, Russian President Vladimir Putin had sought to strengthen his power, the IISS noted.
"Yet the concentration of power in the hands of the president and Russia's federal centre could weaken rather than strengthen the ability of the state to deal with future crises," the report warned.
The mooted succession process for Putin in 2008 was also "a major concern", the think-tank said, predicting "little chance of a democratic transfer of power".
Elsewhere in Europe, the Madrid train bombings of March last year showed the "hard choices" facing the continent and the European Union.
"Generating a collective counter-terrorism posture and a standing European military force with power-projection capabilities constituted the principal security challenge," the IISS said.
Meanwhile, creating a new EU constitution to cope with the enlarged bloc was the main political challenge.
"As of April 2005, both endeavours seemed in some doubt," it said.
Europe, notably Russia, faces potential instability on its eastern edges in coming years if a wave of anti-government popular feeling takes hold, a leading think-tank argued in a report on Tuesday.
As events in Ukraine and other countries showed, "the concept of 'former Soviet space' became history" during 2004, leaving Moscow with less and less clout over its former vassal states, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said.
Russia's "maladroit" backing of incumbent president Victor Yanukovich in Ukraine's political crisis of November 2004, which saw Viktor Yushchenko eventually take power, illustrated this, the London-based IISS said.
The borders of Europe and Asia, where Kyrgyzstan's president Askar Akayev was also ousted in March, appeared in danger of becoming increasing unstable, the think-tank said in its 384-page Strategic Survey 2004/5.
To ensure stability, the region's political elites needed to quickly deliver political and economic change, while Russia, Europe and the United States must also cooperate, it argued.
"There are growing concerns that governments in countries which so far have managed to contain mass popular protests could take drastic measures to safeguard their regimes and resort to repression and violence," the report said.
It was written before a military crackdown earlier this month on protestors in the east of Uzbekistan, which witnesses, rights groups and opposition activists say killed as many as 1,000 people.
"At the same time, if popular uprisings spread to other states in Eurasia, the region could be thrown into a period of instability, with worrying consequences for neighbouring Europe and Asia," the report continued.
Following the Beslan school siege of September last year in which 318 people died, Russian President Vladimir Putin had sought to strengthen his power, the IISS noted.
"Yet the concentration of power in the hands of the president and Russia's federal centre could weaken rather than strengthen the ability of the state to deal with future crises," the report warned.
The mooted succession process for Putin in 2008 was also "a major concern", the think-tank said, predicting "little chance of a democratic transfer of power".
Elsewhere in Europe, the Madrid train bombings of March last year showed the "hard choices" facing the continent and the European Union.
"Generating a collective counter-terrorism posture and a standing European military force with power-projection capabilities constituted the principal security challenge," the IISS said.
Meanwhile, creating a new EU constitution to cope with the enlarged bloc was the main political challenge.
"As of April 2005, both endeavours seemed in some doubt," it said.
