By Ed Johnson
LONDON -- Prime Minister Tony Blair has six weeks to persuade the world's wealthiest nations to back his plans for doubling aid to Africa and tackling global warming.
But agreement on Britain's priorities for its G8 presidency remains elusive _ not least due to resistance in Washington _ and securing a breakthrough at the July G8 summit in Scotland could test Blair's alliance with President Bush.
"There is still a lot of wooing to be done," said Alex Vines, an analyst at London's Royal Institute of International Affairs.
Blair will meet Friday with Italian Premier Silvio Berlusconi in Rome, the first round of a diplomatic offensive that will also take the British leader to Moscow and Washington next month. Some question whether Blair, distracted by a month-long campaign to win re-election, has left himself enough time to broker an accord.
"I don't think it is looking good for Blair to win the consensus he hopes for," said Jonathan Stevenson of the International Institute of Strategic Studies.
Britain's agenda is ambitious. On Africa, Blair wants rich nations to write off the debts owed by the world's poorest countries and to double international aid.
Britain's Treasury chief Gordon Brown said Wednesday he was confident of a deal on debt relief. But world leaders remain sharply divided over how to boost aid.
Tokyo and Washington both reject a British plan, called the International Finance Facility, to raise an extra $50 billion a year by selling bonds on the world's capital markets.
The Bush administration says the mechanism would bind future governments to providing money and thus conflicts with U.S. budget laws. Instead, Washington is pushing its Millennium Challenge Account, which ties foreign assistance to good governance and democracy, and says future aid should be delivered as grants that do not have to be repaid, rather than as loans.
The Bush administration also opposes a British proposal that the International Monetary Fund sell some of its massive gold reserves to fund increased aid.
"There is a push me, pull you debate on debt forgiveness and extension of foreign assistance for poverty eradication," said Stevenson. "The United States is willing to do one but not both."
Other countries also appear reluctant to give up their own projects. France, like Germany and Italy, has expressed support for the IFF, but has proposed its own initiative _ an international aviation tax. Tokyo, which has hosted conferences on Africa since 1993, prefers bilateral aid.
"We think it is better if each (donor) country does what it does best, like we do now, although we think it is good to cooperate, too," said Japan's Foreign Ministry spokesman Akira Chiba.
Blair also faces a challenge on global warming. He wants world leaders to agree on the science of climate change _ that man-made pollutants are causing the earth's temperature to rise, with potentially devastating results. He also wants a scientific drive to tackle the problem, including greater research in green technology.
Washington agrees with the need for new technology. But Bush remains steadfastly opposed to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, which aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions blamed for global warming, saying it would damage the U.S. economy.
U.S. officials suggest the science on climate change remains inconclusive and U.S. climate negotiator Harlan Watson told the British Broadcasting Corp. earlier this month the administration was "still not convinced of the need to move forward quite so quickly."
Blair has a lot riding on his G8 agenda. Mocked as "Bush's poodle" for following Washington's lead in the Iraq war, Blair winning Bush's support on Africa and climate change is regarded as an important test of whether his voice is heard in the White House. A breakthrough would also offer Blair a political legacy. His recently won third term in office, he says, will be his last.
"He is definitely facing an uphill battle," said Stuart Leith, an expert in trans-Atlantic relations at Glasgow University. He said Bush may offer Blair some concessions as payback for Blair's support in Iraq, but did not expect a breakthrough.
"They may well be able to dress something up in polite language," he said. "But I do not expect it is going to coalesce into any firm commitments."
