By Daniel McGrory
WHOEVER was responsible for yesterday's attacks, police are convinced there was nothing random about their targets.
Synchronised strikes on three London Tube trains followed by a blast on a red double-decker bus evoke raw memories of a fortnight ago. Just like July 7, the terrorists chose all four points of the compass, or the burning cross as their radical sympathisers prefer to describe it. But this time there were no mass casualties, but there was panic. That, say terror experts, was the intention.
As dusk fell, the first reports filtered out that the bombers had used the same explosive that had caused the deaths of 56 people on July 7.
In the immediate aftermath of the 7/7 atrocity, Sir Ian Blair warned the public there was every chance the terrorist cell would try to hurt us again. He and the others were asking: if this was the same group then why didn't they spill blood? Yesterday's perpetrators didn't behave like men ready to die on a second strike suicide mission. Witnesses saw them dump their rucksacks and run. Their instinct for survival suggests there is not an inexhaustible queue of young Britons ready to die as "holy warriors". Their attempted escape means they left behind evidence, and survivors who can identify them. These men must have known they will be caught on CCTV footage, just as the four suicide bombers were.
While police checked for fingerprints, DNA and other evidence left behind by this second team, experts are busy studying the composition of the devices to assess similarities with those devastating bombs from a fortnight ago.
First indications are that this was a different bombmaker. Police suspect whoever assembled the original devices in a housing association flat in Leeds has long since fled the country. Those leading the murder hunt were puzzled why the cell had left behind so much high-quality explosive in a car boot at Luton railway station and in the Leeds bomb factory.
Investigators were openly speculating that a terrorist courier may have been been scared off from collecting this cache which meant yesterday's bombers didn't have sufficient explosive to deliver a lethal blow. They had detonators, triggers and enough explosive to frighten Tube passengers but they clearly lacked the evil expertise to cause another catastrophe.
There has been no massive traffic in phone calls or e-mails picked up by the intelligence community suggesting another wave of al-Qaeda clones awaiting instructions. The terrorist leader could have briefed this second string of recruits in advance on when and where to strike, but surely such an experienced figure would not betray his identity and that of the rest of an al-Qaeda cell to men who could live to tell the tale.
There are terrible precedents for al-Qaeda-linked groups striking twice. They did so with murderous effect in Istanbul in 2003. Two weeks after bombing a number of synagogues, the same group attacked a bank and the British Consulate.
In Madrid, the same outfit who had blown up four commuter trains in March last year tried a few weeks later to derail an intercity express. Investigators found their battle plan also included other targets such as Real Madrid's football stadium.
If the aim of the British cell was to strike again then surely they too would have picked the same city but different targets. That keeps police on the alert and makes everyone feel uneasy not just Tube travellers.
However, anyone travelling around London would have known Underground stations are now crawling with police during the height of the rush hour but only until lunchtime.
Was it more than coincidence that the Tube lines hit yesterday, the Victoria, Northern and Hammersmith, all pass through King's Cross, which was the starting point for the July 7 bombers? It was no accident that among those first on the scene were teams dressed in chemical and biological warfare suits. Secret intelligence has given warning that al-Qaeda is determined to use "dirty bombs" packed with toxins or radioactive material. Mercifully this did not happen yesterday.
For a time, some in Scotland Yard regarded this as such a bungled operation they were examining the possibility this was the handiwork of a different group. Could this have been some grotesque commemoration of the suicide bombers?
By last night that idea was losing strength amid suggestions the same high-quality, homemade explosive had been found. The experts accept speculation will continue for days yet as the investigation develops but they are united in the view that yesterday's incident was meant to keep London in a state of panic.
Christopher Langton, head of defence analysis at the International Institute of Strategic Studies, said: "Was this another radical group in a copycat attack or a deliberate plan to keep the pot boiling and cause maximum disruption?
"There was a certain amount of planning but not on the level of expertise evident on 7/7. But the action took place in full public view and made a significant psychological impact. The biggest concern is that they have continuing access to materials like detonators and explosives."
That verdict will do little to ease nerves in the capital, and indeed across Britain. The message to tourists, commuters and every Londoner is: "You are targets for a rolling siege."
