"The document is shoddy and badly written," said  Toby Dodge,  Iraq analyst at the London-based  International Institute  for  Strategic Studies,  before parliament in Baghdad is due to vote on the charter Thursday.

 

"But drafting a constitution for Iraq is like rearranging the deckchairs on the Titanic with the country slipping toward insurgency," Dodge added, amid continued disagreement among the countries' political and religious groups.

 

A draft of the basic law was put to the national assembly Monday, but sticking points remain, notably over a federal system, the standing of members of the former ruling Baath party, and distribution of power in the executive.

 

Such issues are the subject of intense debate among Shiites and Kurds -- who took the lion's share of seats following January's elections -- and the disempowered Sunnis ahead of Thursday's fresh deadline.

 

"The constitution won't work because of differences and divergences between Iraqi parties and interest groups," said Nabil Younes, professor of international relations at Baghdad university.

 

"It was conceived to serve the interests of certain groups and not the common interest," he said of the document which has been attacked by Sunnis as a compromise reached between Shiites and Kurds at their expense.

 

Dodge admitted it was extremely difficult to draft a constitution for Iraq, suggesting a provisional formula along the lines of the Transitional Administrative Law (TAL) introduced when Iraq regained sovereignty in 2004.

 

"That basically means kicking the big issues into the long grass and then working them out gradually over time," said Dodge, contacted by telephone.

 

"The problem is that the Iraqi state is incoherent to the majority of its people," he said, predicting "increasing localism -- for example Basra calling for its own separate region" in the south of the country.

 

The charter could lead to problems between the central government and the regions -- of which the Kurdish north is currently the only one -- and provinces which are set to acquire significant powers in traditionally centralised Iraq.

 

Sunni Arabs, who dominated Iraq until the fall of former president Saddam Hussein in April 2003, are either completely opposed to federalism or favour its gradual introduction.

 

"Sunnis are not against the principle of federalism but they want it to be introduced and applied by degrees," parliament speaker Hajim al-Hasani told journalists on Wednesday.

 

Hassani, himself a Sunni, added that the Kurds could not be denied their autonomous region as they have effectively already had one in the north since the 1991 Gulf War over Kuwait.

 

Dodge also warned that sectarian territorial disputes that emerge after the document is adopted could herald a rise in "warlordism", with power going to the militia which develops its capacity the most.

 

"It's just a question of how much worse it will get," he said.