30 October 2009: Straits Times
By William Choong, Senior Writer
IF ONE believes the recent rhetoric of Russian and Chinese leaders, the two major powers are now enjoying a honeymoon period in their oft-complicated relations.
In 2005, Chinese President Hu Jintao declared that bilateral relations had 'reached a level unprecedented in their history'. A year later, his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin declared that 'relations today are the best they have ever been'. Earlier this month, both countries signed deals worth US $3.5 billion (S $5 billion) to commemorate the 60th anniversary of diplomatic relations.
The last time such amity existed was during the 1950s, when Mao Zedong and Joseph Stalin declared the 'unbreakable friendship' between the two powers. Thereafter, relations went downhill, with the two communist powers coming to blows over a border dispute in 1969. The rift was exacerbated after then United States President Richard Nixon's rapprochement with China in 1972.
Arguably, the two countries have - on the surface at least - come a long way since 1997, when the term 'strategic partnership' was first employed.
In 2004, the two resolved a longstanding dispute over their 4,300km border. Two-way trade has jumped from a meagre US $6 billion in 1999 to nearly US $60 billion last year. And in recent years, both countries have participated in joint military exercises - a sign of mutual trust.
More worrying, in particular to Washington, is the establishment of a common geopolitical narrative by Beijing and Washington: that they prefer a multipolar world, not a unipolar (read: US) one.
Indeed, a Sino-Soviet - and anti-American - axis would worry Washington, simply because it is taken from the playbook of Dr Henry Kissinger. In his formulation of 'triangular politics', the former US secretary of state sought to draw Washington closer to Beijing, so as to give Moscow a stake in closer ties with the US (and in pure Machiavellian fashion, put the US in a better position to contain Moscow).
Wrote Strategic Forecasting, the Texas-based intelligence consultancy: 'If there is one bugaboo that can always grab Washington's attention, it is the fear of a Chinese-Russian alliance.'
But things are not so straightforward. Beijing is unlikely to pursue an alliance with Moscow, given that it already holds the upper hand in its 'strategic partnership' with Russia.
China is Russia's third biggest trade partner, but Russia is only China's 11th. China's trade with Russia of about US $60 billion is dwarfed by its trade with the US (US $342 billion in 2006) and Japan (US $207 billion). Sino-Russian trade is even smaller in value than China's trade with Singapore.
In fact, China's trade with Russia is taking on a colonial pattern - Russia exports largely energy and resources to China, while China exports higher-value manufactured goods to Russia.
As Dr Bobo Lo, the author of Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing And The New Geopolitics, notes, the Sino-Russian relationship is merely a marriage of convenience. It is not driven by shared values, but concrete interests.
Writes the former Australian diplomat to Moscow: 'The ruling elites in Russia and China have starkly contrasting world views and look for different things in the 'strategic partnership'. Sometimes their objectives coincide, but often they do not.
'Policymakers have managed to work around these difficulties to achieve some notable successes. But we should not mistake pragmatism for genuine affinity.'
Last year, for example, Russia invaded Georgia following a provocation by the latter. Moscow lobbied the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) - which includes China and four Soviet republics - to endorse Russia's recognition of the breakaway Georgian republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. China, however, was concerned about its restive regions, and did not accede to Russia's request.
Moreover, China has consistently resisted Moscow's lobbying for building the SCO into a quasi-military alliance that could counter Nato. In the end, a formal Sino-Russian alliance would only cause China to suffer loss, given the extensive trading and diplomatic links that Beijing has with the West, in particular the US. In such an alliance, Russia could only become China's junior partner.
As Professor Stephen Kotkin, a professor of international relations at Princeton University, writes: 'It is as if China went to the prom with one partner, Russia, went home with another, the United States, and then married the latter while wooing its jilted original date as a mistress.'
Speaking at a conference organised by the International Institute for Strategic Studies last year, Mr Daniel Fung, a senior counsel from Hong Kong, noted that China has been dealing with Russia for 300 years. 'China is not starry-eyed about Russia, neither does it see Russia as the great ogre hell-bent on reviving the Cold War. In terms of political, military and economic power, Russia is no longer the Soviet Union,' said the president of the International Law Association, Hong Kong Chapter.
Wisely put. Great power condominiums are usually bad ideas, particularly for small states. But people in the West and the Asia-Pacific region should not wish for a deterioration of Sino-Russian ties. Stability in their ties makes Central Asia and East Asia safer places. Instead, they should wish that relations are good enough for stable bilateral relations, but not good enough for a full-fledged alliance.
There might be plenty of things to worry about in global affairs, but a Sino-Russian axis is not one of them.
