Iran’s nuclear programme could be triggering a race to develop atomic weapons in the Middle East, a study warned today.
The report noted a recent surge of nuclear activity in countries in the region.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said that no fewer than 13 countries had drawn up or revived plans for civilian nuclear energy between February 2006 and January 2007.
20 May 2008: Times
By James Booth
Iran’s nuclear programme could be triggering a race to develop atomic weapons in the Middle East, a study warned today.
The report noted a recent surge of nuclear activity in countries in the region.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said that no fewer than 13 countries had drawn up or revived plans for civilian nuclear energy between February 2006 and January 2007.
All of Iran's neighbours in the Gulf, with the solitary exception of Iraq, have expressed interest in nuclear energy. While all the plans are for peaceful civilian purposes, the IISS said that their underlying motive seemed to be to counter-balance Iran by "laying the ground for a possible future security hedge" which could include nuclear weapons.
“This upsurge of interest is remarkable, given both the abundance of traditional energy sources in the region and the low standing to date of nuclear energy there,” said John Chipman, the chief executive of the London-based group.
“If Tehran’s nuclear programme is unchecked, there is reason for concern that it could in time prompt a regional cascade of proliferation among Iran’s neighbours.”
The IISS study assesses the nuclear activities of Egypt, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey, Algeria, Israel, Morocco, Tunisia, Libya, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Yemen and Syria.
Israel is widely assumed to have a nuclear arsenal already, although it has never admitted to it.
Mr Chipman said that if Israel abandoned this long-held policy and confirmed that it had nuclear weapons, other countries in the region would feel under greater pressure to follow suit and acquire the weapons.
“A proliferation cascade would become more likely if Israel felt obliged to relinquish its long-standing doctrine of nuclear ’opacity’ ...as this would increase the pressure on Egypt and perhaps other Arab states to seek their own nuclear deterrents,” he said.
Iran’s refusal to stop enriching uranium, in defiance of UN sanctions, has fuelled western suspicions that it is covertly developing an atomic bomb.
The Islamic Republic insists that it wants only peaceful nuclear energy.
Washington has led efforts at the United Nations to rein in Iran’s efforts to master the nuclear fuel cycle, by imposing an escalating series of sanctions.
President Bush has refused to rule out military action against Iran as a last resort.
Mark Fitzpatrick, an IISS expert on non-proliferation and editor of the study, said: “We take it for granted that Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapon.”
He added that Iran could theoretically produce enough highly enriched uranium for a bomb by next year.
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