The growing interest in the use of nuclear power for civilian purposes in the Middle East is "remarkable" but the danger of a "proliferation cascade" is currently not imminent, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said in a report Tuesday. The report, Nuclear Programmes in the Middle East - In the shadow of Iran, said that although some countries were positioning themselves to be able eventually to produce fissile material, no country was known, or seriously believed, to be pursuing a nuclear weapons programme as a result of Tehran's activities.
While the dangers of proliferation were "real," they were not "imminent," said IISS director John Chipman.
20 May 2008: DPA
London - The growing interest in the use of nuclear power for civilian purposes in the Middle East is "remarkable" but the danger of a "proliferation cascade" is currently not imminent, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) said in a report Tuesday. The report, Nuclear Programmes in the Middle East - In the shadow of Iran, said that although some countries were positioning themselves to be able eventually to produce fissile material, no country was known, or seriously believed, to be pursuing a nuclear weapons programme as a result of Tehran's activities.
While the dangers of proliferation were "real," they were not "imminent," said IISS director John Chipman.
The report shows that in the 11 months between February, 2006 and January, 2007, at least 13 countries in the Middle East announced new or revived plans to pursue or explore civilian nuclear energy.
"This upsurge of interest is remarkable, given both the abundance of traditional energy sources in the region and the low standing to date of nuclear energy there," said Chipman.
The single most important political factor behind the growing interest in nuclear power in the region was Iran's development of "dual-use nuclear technologies," said the IISS.
"If Tehran's nuclear programme is unchecked, there is reason for concern that it could in time prompt a regional cascade of proliferation among Iran's neighbours," said the report.
For some states, such as Saudi Arabia, an Iranian nuclear weapon would present a "direct and dire" threat, while for others, such as Egypt and Turkey, the threat was "indirect" and more tied to concerns about the balance of power and loss of relative status and influence in the region.
In the assessment of the IISS, a so-called proliferation cascade would become more likely if Israel "felt obliged to relinquish" its long-standing doctrine of nuclear "opacity," or ambiguity.
Such a development would increase the pressure on Egypt - and perhaps other Arab states - to seek their own nuclear deterrents, said the report.
