Lee Hsien Loong, prime minister of Singapore, said at last month's opening of a security conference attended by Robert Gates, the US defence secretary, that the stresses from hunger and famine could result in social upheaval and civil strife.
"Between countries, competition for food supplies and displacement of people across borders could deepen tensions and provoke conflict and wars," Mr Lee said.
20 June 2008: Financial Times
By Carola Hoyos and Javier Blas, Financial Times, 20 Jun 2008
For decades Washington has seen oil as an issue of national security, worrying that a rogue Middle East country would withhold America's lifeblood as Arab countries did during the 1973 oil embargo.
Now US and European politicians are linking oil and record food prices to a new international strategic threat: instability in developing countries.
During the past few weeks senior officials have quietly begun to shift their emphasis of the fuel and food crisis from viewing it as purely a humanitarian and social problem to a concern that governments could fall as hungry and fuel-deprived people take their anger to the streets.
Haiti's prime minister was sacked by the national assembly earlier this year following food protests, Pakistan told Saudi Arabia it could not pay its oil bill this month, and this week China joined a growing number of Asian nations taking the unpopular decision to slash costly fuel subsidies.
Josette Sheeran, executive director of the World Food Programme, has warned that riots in more than 30 countries were "stark reminders that food insecurity threatens not only the hungry but peace and stability itself".
She added that only seven meals separated civilisation from potential anarchy and that some of the world's "gold-standard, new, fledgling democracies" were under the most pressure.
Lee Hsien Loong, prime minister of Singapore, said at last month's opening of a security conference attended by Robert Gates, the US defence secretary, that the stresses from hunger and famine could result in social upheaval and civil strife.
"Between countries, competition for food supplies and displacement of people across borders could deepen tensions and provoke conflict and wars," Mr Lee said.
But it is only now that this thinking has transferred into foreign policy. The most visible signal of this move is tomorrow's oil summit in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia. For the first time 40 ministers and 20 oil executives will meet to discuss what is causing high oil prices and what can be done about them.
Saudi Arabia has realised that it could be blamed for political upheaval in developing nations. The issue is especially acute when it comes to Muslim countries, such as Pakistan, Malaysia, Morocco, Indonesia or Egypt, since Saudi Arabia regards itself as a leader in the Muslim world.
Saudi Arabia fears it could be made the scapegoat for economic woes even in the developed world. In the US, the kingdom's most important customer and ally,Riyadh worries that it will be blamed for deepening the economic crisis as the candidates vying for the White House look to deflect responsibility and win voters in November's presidential election.
The kingdom on Friday confirmed that it would increase its oil output by 200,000 barrels a day to about 9.7m b/d, the highest level in more than 25 years.
Adam Sieminski, of Deutsche Bank, said that with Saudi Arabia appearing to favour lower oil prices and backing that up by pumping more oil, relief to the crisis may be in sight. "With luck, oil prices can be capped below $140 a barrel," he said.
But limiting the oil price at $140 a barrel and halting the rise in food prices willbe of little consolation to those who worry about the stability of developingcountries. Venezuela went back on its decision to skip the meeting of energy producing and consuming countries in Saudi Arabia this weekend after the host country insisted it attend. Venezuela's oil minister said yesterday, Dow Jones reports from Caracas.
On Thursday Rafael Ramirez said Venezuela would not attend the meeting in Jeddah, but yesterday he said: "In the end, we will go. In the end, Saudi Arabia asked us to go as [one of the] founders of Opec."
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