The International Institute of Strategic Studies reported that an Iranian nuclear weapon would prompt Teheran's neighbors, particularly Saudi Arabia, to acquire similar systems. In a report released on May 20, IISS said an Iranian atomic bomb would directly threaten Saudi Arabia.
If Teheran's nuclear program is unchecked, there is reason for concern that it could in time prompt a regional cascade of proliferation among Iran's neighbors," the report said. "The danger of a proliferation cascade in the Middle East, while real, is not imminent." IISS director-general John Chipman said an Iranian nuclear weapon would most threaten Riyad, Iran's leading rival in the region. Chipman said countries from Turkey to Egypt would also feel threatened by Teheran's program and formulate a response
03 June 2008: World Tribune
LONDON — The International Institute of Strategic Studies reported that an Iranian nuclear weapon would prompt Teheran's neighbors, particularly Saudi Arabia, to acquire similar systems. In a report released on May 20, IISS said an Iranian atomic bomb would directly threaten Saudi Arabia.
If Teheran's nuclear program is unchecked, there is reason for concern that it could in time prompt a regional cascade of proliferation among Iran's neighbors," the report said. "The danger of a proliferation cascade in the Middle East, while real, is not imminent." IISS director-general John Chipman said an Iranian nuclear weapon would most threaten Riyad, Iran's leading rival in the region. Chipman said countries from Turkey to Egypt would also feel threatened by Teheran's program and formulate a response.
"For some states, such as Saudi Arabia, an Iranian nuclear weapon would present a direct and dire threat," Chipman said. "For others, such as Egypt and Turkey, the threat is indirect, and more tied to concerns about the balance of power and loss of relative status and influence in the region. If any one of Iran's neighbors were to seek to acquire nuclear weapons in response, this would put additional pressure on others to do the same, because of intra-regional security and status considerations."
So far, no Middle East country has announced plans to produce or acquire nuclear weapons. But all six GCC states as well as Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Libya, Morocco, Tunisia and Turkey have embarked on projects to build nuclear energy reactors. IISS said Egypt was the most likely Arab candidate for a nuclear weapon. China, France, Russia and the United States have offered to help Cairo and other Middle East states in nuclear programs.
"In the span of the eleven months between February 2006 and January 2007, at least 13 countries in the Middle East announced new or revived plans to pursue or explore civilian nuclear energy," Chipman said. "Since then several of these states have solidified their plans. This upsurge of interest is remarkable, given both the abundance of traditional energy sources in the region and the low standing to date of nuclear energy there."
So far, the report said, GCC and other Arab states have sought to develop a nuclear infrastructure that would include reactors and trained personnel. IISS said this would lay the groundwork for a rapid nuclear weapons program.
Mark Fitzpatrick, author of the report, said Iran could "theoretically" be capable of producing a nuclear weapon by 2009. Fitzpatrick, who asserted that Teheran would need another four years, said Iran's nuclear weapons capability depended on its enrichment and reprocessing of uranium on a large scale.
Despite Teheran's nuclear program, GCC states fear any U.S. air strike on Iran. As a result, some Gulf Arab states have agreed to Teheran's demands for cooperation in the fields of energy and security.
"Afraid of suffering adverse consequences both if Iran and the United States clash or if they reconcile, the Gulf states must balance competing influences," the report, titled "Strategic Dossier: Nuclear Programmes in the Middle East: In the shadow of Iran," said.
IISS said Middle East nuclear programs would be accelerated should Israel respond to Iran. The report envisioned the prospect of Israel ending its decades-old ambiguity and declaring that it has nuclear weapons.
"A proliferation cascade would become more likely if Israel felt obliged to relinquish its long-standing doctrine of nuclear 'opacity' or ambiguity," the report said, "whereby it refuses to confirm or deny any aspect of its nuclear activities, as this would increase the pressure on Egypt and perhaps other Arab states to seek their own nuclear deterrents."
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