For a second consecutive year, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) sent speakers to participate in the annual meeting of defense ministers hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) at the Shangri-La Hotel here May 30 to June 1.
The Chinese delegation to the 7th annual Shangri-La Dialogue was led by Lt. Gen. Ma Xiaotian, Chinese PLA deputy chief of the General Staff, with five defense and foreign affairs officials, including Yu Hong, director of the Department of Asian Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs; and Maj. Gen. Jia Xiaoning, deputy chief, Foreign Affairs Office, Ministry of National Defense. China sent four nongovernmental academic delegates, including Zhuang Jianzhong, vice director, Center for National Strategy Studies, Shanghai Jiao Tong University.
03 June 2008: Defense News
By Wendell Minnick
SINGAPORE - For a second consecutive year, China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) sent speakers to participate in the annual meeting of defense ministers hosted by the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) at the Shangri-La Hotel here May 30 to June 1.
The Chinese delegation to the 7th annual Shangri-La Dialogue was led by Lt. Gen. Ma Xiaotian, Chinese PLA deputy chief of
the General Staff, with five defense and foreign affairs officials, including Yu Hong, director of the Department of Asian Affairs, Ministry of Foreign Affairs; and Maj. Gen. Jia Xiaoning, deputy chief, Foreign Affairs Office, Ministry of National Defense. China sent four nongovernmental academic delegates, including Zhuang Jianzhong, vice director, Center for National Strategy Studies, Shanghai Jiao Tong University.
Ralph Cossa, president of the Pacific Forum at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said it was good to see another three-star officer participating in the talks. In 2007, China sent its first delegation speaker, Lt. Gen. Zhang Qinsheng.
"[It's] also good to see the questions aimed at the Chinese were a bit tougher this time and that Ma did not avoid them all - he didn't necessarily fully answer them all, but was better than his predecessor last year, who avoided everything," Cossa said.
In the past, China had reservations about participating in the dialogue and sent only junior delegations, said Nigel Inkster, director of transnational threats and political risk for IISS. "But last year, they took a policy decision to upgrade their delegation, which was led by PLA Deputy Chief of General Staff Lt. Gen. Zhang Qinsheng, and have sent a delegation at the same level this year."
During his speech, Ma defended China's military modernization efforts and disputed suggestions by those who insinuate China is a threat to the region.
"What I want to point out, though, is that China's defense development is compatible with the country's economic growth, with defense expenditure consistently within the limit of affordability," he said. "China's growing economy and fiscal revenue makes the defense budget increase a logical and imperative reality."
Ma argued the defense budget is limited and proportional.
"In terms of the input and share of defense spending, personnel stipend, training, as well as acquisition and maintenance, account for one-third, respectively. That is, two-thirds of the expenditure goes to maintenance spending, such as living costs and training, etc.," he said. "China's defense expenditure is at a low level, in contrast to some developed countries in the world."
Ministers speaking at the dialogue had mixed reactions to China's increasing military power. Japanese Defense Minister Shigeru Ishiba said he recognizes China's difficulties in governing the largest country in the world and does not believe China
is a threat to the region.
"At the same time," he said, "we would like to urge China to further enhance the transparency of its military capabilities and their purpose."
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates noted China's pivotal role in influencing North Korea to temper its nuclear weapon ambitions.
Ma cited at the end of his speech China's intention to broaden military-to-military exchanges and discussions with other Asian countries in the future.
"On the basis of mutual respect, mutual benefit and consultation on equal footing, China's armed forces stand ready to step up military-to-military exchanges with all Asia-Pacific countries and press ahead with practical cooperation in counterterrorism, peacekeeping, disaster relief, cross-border crimes and other areas," he said. "We will work together with nations in this region to maintain regional peace and stability and are committed to unremitting efforts for a harmonious Asia-Pacific region of lasting peace and shared prosperity."
Fears that China is a threat to the regional and international community have long dogged Beijing.
China has complained about "China threat" proponents for many years. However, Richard Armitage, former assistant secretary of state, said he does not see China as a threat.
"China is going to be so consumed with the need for stability internally and continued economic growth that they will not be a threat for quite a while," he said. "Two questions arise about China: One, the lack of transparency in their military direction and buildup, and second, the fact that on more than one occasion, they hang with some disreputable folks, like Zimbabwe, or [are] not doing quite right in Sudan or Venezuela."
China views these relationships in the context of securing energy resources and has placed human rights concerns on the back burner. "But you are known for your friends as well as your enemies, and those are not particularly good friends to have," Armitage said.
Ma attacked regional missile defense efforts, saying they destabilize the status quo. Both Japan and Taiwan are moving forward on broader ballistic missile defense systems that include Patriot Advanced Capability-3 missiles and advanced long-range, phased-array radar systems.
Zhuang, of the Center for National Strategy Studies in Shanghai, reinforced Ma's line of thinking.
"It is our view [that] the strategic balance, especially nuclear arms, is mutual deterrence," he said. "It is very important to have the balance. By that, we can maintain peace and security. So any side that increases missile defense upsets that balance.
"If Japan and Australia develop a theater missile defense system, it will certainly reduce the deterrent forces of China. Japan can say it is against North Korea, but it's not the right time to do this," he said. "We want to solve the North Korea issue by peaceful means."
Zhuang said North Korea is not as threatening as it was two years ago: "It is now reducing, but the U.S. and Japan are increasing missile defense capabilities," he said. "And China is strongly against Taiwan getting PAC-3s."
China is now fielding new Dong Feng 31A mobile intercontinental ballistic missiles that could allow Beijing to shoot and scoot while it destroyed Washington. China is also building more ballistic missile submarines.
Cossa disagrees with Ma's and Zhuang's argument that missile defense threatens the balance of power.
"How does one say building a limited missile defense system changes the strategic balance, but putting a thousand missiles opposite Taiwan does not matter?" he said. "The Chinese have steadily increased the missile threat, so the balance has been changed by them, making some form of defensive reaction necessary and justified."
Michael McDevitt, a retired U.S. Navy rear admiral, also says Ma's arguments are illogical.
"He essentially argued that the reason that BMD was destabilizing is because it changes the balance of power by reducing the vulnerability of Japan and Taiwan," said McDevitt, now director of the Center for Strategic Studies, Alexandria, Va. "In other words, as long as these two countries can't defend themselves against Chinese missiles, the balance of power is just fine as far as Beijing is concerned. But if they defend themselves, that is bad. This is hardly a way to reassure the region that Chinese intentions are benign, and that they would never use force to intimidate neighboring countries."
"What China really worries about is Taiwan being brought into a defense network (perhaps linked to Japan as well), if a more structured missile screen were to be employed," Cossa said. "However, there is no plan for that in the works (probably unconstitutional in Japan as well). Perhaps with a cross-Strait opening, a lot of this will be defused."
Cossa said he also foresees a "type of missile drawdown" as China and Taiwan institute new agreements now under negotiation.
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