"There is no doubt the Board will approve the deal. There will be a range of national statements, some with tongue clicking, but no real debate," said Mark Fitzpatrick at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
But diplomats say more resistance may crop up within the Nuclear Suppliers Group to granting an exemption sought by India as a non-member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty that conducted nuclear test blasts in 1974 and 1998.
11 July 2008: Reuters
By Mark Heinrich
VIENNA (Reuters) - The United States said on Thursday it would push to get a nuclear trade deal with India past domestic and international hurdles with the clock ticking towards an effective deadline set by U.S. elections in November.
India and the United States must win clearances from U.N. atomic watchdog governors and a 45-nation group that controls sensitive nuclear trade, then ratification by the U.S. Congress for the three-year-old nuclear deal to take force.
After prolonged delay caused by a governing coalition split over the deal, India took the first step toward implementing it on Wednesday by submitting a draft plan for inspections of its civilian nuclear reactors to the watchdog International Atomic Energy Agency's 35-nation Board of Governors in Vienna.
"We welcome India's willingness to move forward with this historic initiative, which is part of the strategic partnership envisioned by President (George W.) Bush and Prime Minister (Manmohan) Singh," said Gregory Schulte, U.S. envoy to the IAEA.
"The initiative will help strengthen the global non-proliferation regime and help India meet its growing energy demands in an environmentally friendly way," he told reporters.
"There is much that needs to be done. The next step is IAEA board review... We will work with India, our Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG) partners and the U.S. Congress to ensure the initiative is implemented as expeditiously as possible."
Analysts said the nuclear safeguards agreement covering 14 of 22 reactors in India was likely to be approved with little problem by the IAEA board after agency inspectors certified it met global non-proliferation standards.
IAEA MEETING AS SOON AS JULY 28
IAEA diplomats said the 35-nation board could meet as early as July 28 or in August on the matter.
"There is no doubt the Board will approve the deal. There will be a range of national statements, some with tongue clicking, but no real debate," said Mark Fitzpatrick at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.
But diplomats say more resistance may crop up within the Nuclear Suppliers Group to granting an exemption sought by India as a non-member of the Non-Proliferation Treaty that conducted nuclear test blasts in 1974 and 1998.
The NSG, which acts slowly and only by consensus, therefore might need until September or October to reach a decision.
Some U.S. congressmen have said there will be no time left for the several weeks required to tackle the deal in the House and Senate before they adjourn for elections.
That would leave the pact in indefinite limbo, prey to electoral changes in the United States and India.
The deal is potentially worth billions of dollars to U.S. and European nuclear supply companies, and would give India alternatives to high-polluting and expensive oil and gas energy to carry its booming economy.
But critics, including NSG members such as Ireland, Austria and Scandinavian countries, are concerned that the deal sets a perilous precedent by reversing decades of rules against nuclear cooperation with any country outside the NPT.
They feel it could also weaken international efforts to rein in NPT member Iran's secretive uranium enrichment program, which is under U.N. sanctions over suspicions it is aimed at building bombs, not generating electricity as Tehran says.
(Editing by Sami Aboudi)
