In supporting Belgrade, Moscow is standing by a traditional ally and defending its own interests. As Oksana Antonenko, a senior fellow at the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, argues Russians saw Nato's 1999 deployment in Kosovo as a threat to Russia. She writes in a recent paper that many Russians see the proposed Kosovo settlement as a western attempt to prove the 1999 campaign was legitimate.
"Since Russia opposed the campaign . . . it has no interest in legitimising it now, when relations are tense over missile defence in Europe, Nato enlargement and the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty [a cold war security pact that Moscow suspended this month]."
02 January 2008: Financial Times
By Stefan Wagstyl
Russian warnings that a unilateral declaration of independence by Kosovo could set a precedent for other breakaway territories provokes jitters among US and European Union officials. But in the separatist territory of Abkhazia on the Black Sea, Moscow's words are as welcome as winter sunshine.
"We see Kosovo exactly as a precedent, not only for Abkhazia but for many other unrecognised countries," says Maxim Gunjia, the deputy foreign minister, in a telephone interview in Sukhumi, the Abkhazian capital. "We want to achieve international recognition for our independence."
Abkhazia, which is legally a province of Georgia - where voters go to the polls on Saturday in snap presidential elections aimed at defusing a growing political crisis - tops the list of disputed territories where the Kremlin could be in a position to use the Kosovo precedent. South Ossetia, a much smaller breakaway territory in Georgia, is another prime candidate. So is the unrecognised republic of Transdniestra, a separatist region in Moldova.
The US and the EU have interests in all three regions: they back Georgia's efforts to re-establish its authority over Abkhazia and South Ossetia, and to seek Nato membership, while in Moldova, they are keen for the country to reunite and increase co-operation with the west.
After years in limbo, the Kosovo question has climbed the diplomatic agenda amid efforts to find a settlement for the Balkan territory, which has been run by the United Nations since Serbian forces were expelled by Nato troops in 1999. The west broadly backs the majority ethnic Albanian population's independence demands but Russia supports Serbia's insistence that Kosovo remains Serbian territory.
The failure last month of last-ditch United Nations-sponsored talks has prompted the US and EU to prepare to impose a settlement outside the UN framework under which western governments would this year recognise a unilateral independence declaration.
In supporting Belgrade, Moscow is standing by a traditional ally and defending its own interests. As Oksana Antonenko, a senior fellow at the UK-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, argues Russians saw Nato's 1999 deployment in Kosovo as a threat to Russia. She writes in a recent paper that many Russians see the proposed Kosovo settlement as a western attempt to prove the 1999 campaign was legitimate.
"Since Russia opposed the campaign . . . it has no interest in legitimising it now, when relations are tense over missile defence in Europe, Nato enlargement and the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty [a cold war security pact that Moscow suspended this month]."
Russia is also concerned about setting a dangerous precedent. As Sergei Lavrov, foreign minister, said this month: "It will create a chain reaction throughout the Balkans and other areas of the world."
The region that particularly worries Moscow is the Caucasus, where minority populations inside and outside Russia have sought independence. Moscow is less worried than it was about its own territorial integrity after bloodily reimposing control on Chechnya. But Vladimir Putin, the president, remains concerned. He said this summer: "It is very difficult to explain to the small peoples of the north Caucasus why, in one part of Europe, some people are given this right [to be independent] while here in the Caucasus they have no such right."
But this approach has not stopped Moscow from supporting Georgia's breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia with money, military and security experts and the issue of Russian passports. Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia's pro-west president, is convinced that Russia is using the separatist conflicts to undermine him.
He has made the fate of Abkhazia and South Ossetia a central feature of his election campaign, travelling to the regions in a bid to win over the votes of the more than 200,000 ethnic Georgian refugees from those areas.
So far Mr Putin has not suggested recognising Abkhazia or South Ossetia, almost certainly out of concern on the possible impact on Russia's Caucasian minorities. But Russian nationalists are loudly expressing support.
Boris Gryzlov, the Duma speaker, has proposed debating parliamentary motions recognising Abkhazia and South Ossetia next month. Other MPs suggested Transdniestra could be next.
These motions will not have any legal force, but will raise the political temperature just as events in Kosovo reach a critical phase.
Ms Antonenko does not expect Moscow to rush into recognising new states in "revenge" for Kosovo. However, she says Russia could in future move further towards recognising Abkhazia, which is seen as a more viable state than either South Ossetia or Transdniestra.
In any event, co-operation with the west in solving conflicts in the Caucasus will be much more difficult.
Alexander Rondeli, president of the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies, agrees. "There will be no war over Abkhazia, but political pressures could increase."
However, western diplomats warn that if pressures rise so could the risks of clashes involving, for example, border guards. Last year, Georgia accused Russia of firing a missile at a Georgian outpost in Abkhazia. Later, two Russian officers working with Abkhazian troops were killed in a clash with Georgian forces.
In Abkhazia, Mr Gunjia insists the authorities are committed to securing independence through peaceful means. He does not see recognition coming soon, but says it could be achieved by the time Russia hosts the 2012 Winter Olympics in the Black Sea resort of Sochi, close to Abkhazia.
