The latest publication of Military Balance has detected a series of worrying trends that could have far-reaching implications for Nato, US-Russia relations and even risking the imposition of the Camp David accords in the Middle East.
Launching the 2008 edition, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) suggested that the current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan could affect the ability of the US to recruit allies for extended campaigns.
05 February 2008: IRNA
The latest publication of Military Balance has detected a series of worrying trends that could have far-reaching implications for Nato, US-Russia relations and even risking the imposition of the Camp David accords in the Middle East.
Launching the 2008 edition, the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) suggested that the current wars in Iraq and Afghanistan could affect the ability of the US to recruit allies for extended campaigns.
"In the past it was the technological and doctrinal gap between the US and its NATO allies that was at the center of anxious transatlantic debate, now it is the willpower and capacity gap that is striking." said IISS chief executive John Chipman.
"Next April's NATO summit is thus likely to be pre-occupied not only with the now perennial issue of what the Alliance is for, but with the question of whether the Alliance can muster the military forces and political commitments to match its expansive strategic vision," Chipman warned.
While the report saw progress on the political front in Iraq as being "insubstantial," the insurgency in Afghanistan had sought to spread the scope of its campaign with the US already forced to commit over 3,000 additional marines.
With more than 140 attacks last year showing "unusual sophistication in planning and execution," the IISS director said that more can be expected as the "insurgency is given impetus by the instability in Pakistan."
Elsewhere, Military Balance said the key military development this year concerned Russia's decision to suspend its participation in the Conventional Forces in Europe Treaty (CFE) and suggested Moscow would formally withdraw from the treaty in July.
"The end of CFE Treaty, the cornerstone of post-Cold war European security, could have negative consequences for Europe. It will abolish an important confidence-building mechanism," Chipman warned.
He said that in the west, there had already been "much concern about the assertive foreign and security policy of Russia, evidently seeking to undo some of the perceived humiliations of the immediate post-Soviet era."
In the Middle East, the IISS chief executive believed there could be far-reaching implication following Egypt deploying some 20,000 police in the north of the Sinai peninsular following Israel's siege of Gaza that caused a pour out of Palestinians.
"This situation is complicated by the conditions that the Camp David treaty imposed on Egypt in terms of the number of troops it is allowed to deploy in this region," he said, being that the number of police was capped at only 750.
"It could have serious implications for the military protocol of the Camp David treaty and the sense of trust between Egypt and Israel," Chipman further warned
