Russia's failing North Caucasus strategy The small Russian republic of Ingushetia, neighbouring Chechnya in the North Caucasus, has been plagued by a massive upsurge in violence in the past year. Civic activists are unhappy with Kremlin-appointed local president Murat Zyazikov, who has been accused of corruption and ineptitude. There is also a small Islamic insurgency engaged in attacks and criminal activities. However, the heavy-handed response by Russian federal forces has only fuelled discontent.http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-6/insurgency-in-ingushetia/Thu, 12 Feb 2009 12:07:34 GMTMon, 04 Aug 2008 11:38:36 GMTThu, 12 Feb 2009 12:07:33 GMT19006UK trials reveal new types of networkshttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-1/the-evolving-terrorist-threat/page-2/Fri, 06 Mar 2009 14:06:22 GMTWed, 04 Feb 2009 10:37:33 GMTFri, 06 Mar 2009 14:06:21 GMT23735Alliance views its future cautiouslyhttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-2/natos-60th-birthday/page-2/Thu, 12 Mar 2009 15:28:33 GMTWed, 04 Mar 2009 17:21:05 GMTThu, 12 Mar 2009 15:28:30 GMT24629Alliance views its future cautiously http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-2/natos-60th-birthday/Sun, 15 Mar 2009 14:42:06 GMTWed, 04 Mar 2009 17:21:05 GMTSun, 15 Mar 2009 14:42:02 GMT24628Kim's ill-health adds to pressures on regimehttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-10/north-korea-digs-in/Thu, 11 Dec 2008 00:00:00 GMTFri, 05 Dec 2008 11:20:19 GMTWed, 25 Mar 2009 17:26:58 GMT22082 Budget crisis looms   The United States Department of Defense (DoD) and military services are facing their most acute planning and budgetary crisis since the fall in defence spending that followed the end of the Cold War. While the military’s internal projections call for continued expansion on top of the large funding increases of the past seven years, the Pentagon is expected to come under pressure – particularly under a new administration – to provide a more detailed strategic...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-4/americas-expensive-defence/Wed, 25 Mar 2009 17:30:01 GMTWed, 07 May 2008 15:21:11 GMTWed, 25 Mar 2009 17:29:59 GMT16418Rise of home-grown terrorismhttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-3/islamic-extremism-in-india/page-2/Thu, 30 Apr 2009 14:17:06 GMTWed, 25 Mar 2009 10:21:40 GMTThu, 30 Apr 2009 14:17:03 GMT25146Growth of home-grown terrorismhttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-3/islamic-extremism-in-india/Wed, 01 Apr 2009 17:33:17 GMTWed, 25 Mar 2009 10:21:40 GMTWed, 01 Apr 2009 17:33:14 GMT25145Extraordinary measures to restore stability Western governments have recently taken exceptional measures to prevent the disintegration of their financial systems following a collapse in banking confidence. Whether these will be sufficient to quell extreme turbulence in money and stock markets is not yet clear. Predictions that the crisis will herald the end of American-style capitalism seem exaggerated. However, signs of a major economic downturn resulting from the financial crisis are already evident.http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-8/the-wests-financial-crisis/Tue, 12 May 2009 15:37:35 GMTTue, 07 Oct 2008 15:30:13 GMTTue, 12 May 2009 15:37:33 GMT20437Pakistan strikes highlight the increasing use of remotely piloted aircraft http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-4/the-drones-of-war/Tue, 12 May 2009 16:21:43 GMTFri, 08 May 2009 18:10:49 GMTTue, 12 May 2009 16:21:40 GMT26541How the military increasingly uses pilotless aircraft and the controversieshttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-4/the-drones-of-war/page-2/Tue, 12 May 2009 16:23:25 GMTFri, 08 May 2009 18:10:49 GMTTue, 12 May 2009 16:23:22 GMT26542Volume 13, Issue 3 of Strategic Comments, the Institute's online journal has been published. The first article Iran's nuclear programme is free to all readers, with the remaining four articles: British defence policy, Russian foreign policy, An OPEC for gas? and US missile defence are accessible to IISS members or Strategic Comments subscribers. A pay-per-view facility is also available. The charge for each article is £5.http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-13-2007/volume-13-issue-3/Wed, 13 May 2009 13:08:52 GMTMon, 30 Apr 2007 18:32:26 GMTWed, 13 May 2009 13:08:49 GMT6983Further tests needed to cement recent advances http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-1/irans-missile-development/Fri, 19 Jun 2009 12:18:04 GMTTue, 03 Feb 2009 15:26:54 GMTFri, 19 Jun 2009 12:18:01 GMT23695Nuclear test and missile launches go beyond usual brinkmanshiphttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-5/north-koreas-dangerous-game/Mon, 22 Jun 2009 15:33:11 GMTThu, 18 Jun 2009 11:48:12 GMTMon, 22 Jun 2009 15:33:08 GMT28173Nuclear test and missile launches go beyond usual brinkmanshiphttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-5/north-koreas-dangerous-game/page-2/Mon, 22 Jun 2009 15:34:25 GMTThu, 18 Jun 2009 11:48:13 GMTMon, 22 Jun 2009 15:34:21 GMT28174http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-10/north-korea-digs-in/page-2/Thu, 11 Dec 2008 00:00:00 GMTFri, 05 Dec 2008 11:20:19 GMTTue, 18 Aug 2009 11:48:18 GMT22083Nuclear test and missile launches go beyond usual brinkmanshiphttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-6/deadlock-on-climate-change/page-2/Tue, 18 Aug 2009 16:42:17 GMTThu, 09 Jul 2009 10:52:44 GMTTue, 18 Aug 2009 16:42:13 GMT28641http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-6/ethnic-strife-in-xinjiang/page-3/Wed, 19 Aug 2009 10:43:50 GMTWed, 19 Aug 2009 10:31:51 GMTWed, 19 Aug 2009 10:43:47 GMT29843http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-6/ethnic-strife-in-xinjiang/page-2/Wed, 19 Aug 2009 11:27:54 GMTThu, 09 Jul 2009 11:04:18 GMTWed, 19 Aug 2009 11:27:50 GMT28643Gloomy outlook for Copenhagenhttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-6/deadlock-on-climate-change/Thu, 09 Jul 2009 10:55:00 GMTThu, 09 Jul 2009 10:52:43 GMTWed, 19 Aug 2009 11:49:40 GMT28640Cracks in China’s minorities policy exposed http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-6/ethnic-strife-in-xinjiang/Fri, 25 Sep 2009 15:54:19 GMTThu, 09 Jul 2009 11:04:17 GMTFri, 25 Sep 2009 15:54:15 GMT28642http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-7/a-new-approach-to-afghanistan/page-2/Mon, 28 Sep 2009 16:07:36 GMTFri, 25 Sep 2009 16:04:41 GMTMon, 28 Sep 2009 16:07:32 GMT31200Rigged vote sharpens strategic challengehttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-7/a-new-approach-to-afghanistan/Fri, 23 Oct 2009 10:52:43 GMTFri, 25 Sep 2009 15:40:51 GMTFri, 23 Oct 2009 10:52:39 GMT31193http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-8/signs-of-myanmars-emergence-from-diplomatic-isolation/page-2/Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:03:23 GMTFri, 23 Oct 2009 10:11:30 GMTFri, 23 Oct 2009 14:03:20 GMT32145http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-8/the-iranian-nuclear-crisis/page-2/Fri, 23 Oct 2009 16:41:32 GMTFri, 23 Oct 2009 10:47:18 GMTFri, 23 Oct 2009 16:41:28 GMT32150Tentative engagement with US sparks hopes of new era in relationshttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-8/signs-of-myanmars-emergence-from-diplomatic-isolation/Mon, 26 Oct 2009 16:25:08 GMTThu, 22 Oct 2009 15:40:41 GMTMon, 26 Oct 2009 16:25:03 GMT32127Renewed concerns, but surprise deal offers potential path forwardhttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-8/the-iranian-nuclear-crisis/Wed, 28 Oct 2009 11:27:52 GMTFri, 23 Oct 2009 10:47:17 GMTWed, 28 Oct 2009 11:27:48 GMT32149The UNSCOM experience in Iraqhttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-3---1997/volume-3---issue-1/challenges-facing-verification/Mon, 30 Jan 2006 12:08:18 GMTTue, 02 Aug 2005 13:37:04 GMTMon, 30 Jan 2006 12:08:18 GMT3483Patterns of power On 6 December in Bonn, Afghan factions agreed to form an Interim Administration (IA) to govern the country in its initial post-Taliban phase. The Bonn Agreement – reached under UN auspices – specifies three stages in re-establishing a unified and, it is hoped, peaceful state. Firstly, that the IA should assume authority in Kabul on 22 December 2001, simultaneously taking over the country's seat at the UN – a position currently held in a caretaker capacity by...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7---2001/volume-7---issue-10/post-taliban-afghanistan/Wed, 23 Nov 2005 11:09:32 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTWed, 23 Nov 2005 11:09:32 GMT3653Principles and practicalities The last decade has seen a dramatic change in the rhetoric of German foreign policy. During the 1990-91 Gulf War, Germany – fretting on the sidelines – contributed only funding to the coalition war effort. Long disparaged as economically powerful, yet politically diffident and militarily timid, Germany now says it is willing to expand the military component of its foreign policy. After the events of 11 September, German leaders were among the first to...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7---2001/volume-7---issue-9/germanys-new-foreign-policy/Wed, 23 Nov 2005 11:31:55 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTWed, 23 Nov 2005 11:31:55 GMT3658Calibrating the response Following the devastating 11 September terrorist attacks on New York and Washington DC, the US and key allies are focused on how to combat al-Qaeda, the network allegedly responsible for the atrocities, and similar organisations. In the first week of October, major forces were being deployed by the US in and around the Middle East, while US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld toured the Gulf region to build political support. NATO officials accepted the validity of what...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7---2001/volume-7---issue-8/the-aftermath-of-11-september/Wed, 23 Nov 2005 11:48:46 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTWed, 23 Nov 2005 11:48:46 GMT3663King Abdullah Tested The effects of the second Palestinian intifada have spread beyond Israel's borders. Jordan too has struggled to contain the political and security ramifications of the ten months of violent protests. In July alone, Jordan postponed parliamentary elections and had to grapple with an embarrassing diplomatic incident with Qatar over the fate of a senior Hamas politician. All of this is happening when Jordan no longer has the experienced King Hussein at its helm. The strategic...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7---2001/volume-7---issue-7/jordans-predicaments/Wed, 23 Nov 2005 12:13:48 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTWed, 23 Nov 2005 12:13:48 GMT3668Russia's military satellites Status and prospects Russia's military satellite programme has diminished greatly since the break-up of the Soviet Union. During the 1980s, the Soviet space programme typically made 90-100 launch attempts annually, the majority being dedicated military satellites. The rate has since dropped by more than half, with military payloads in the minority: during 2000, just seven of 39 launches had primarily military payloads. Although budgets started to decline in the...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7---2001/volume-7---issue-6/russias-military-satellites/Tue, 01 Nov 2005 11:19:55 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTTue, 01 Nov 2005 11:19:55 GMT3673Cruise Missile Proliferation Meeting a growing threat As international debate rages over US plans to deploy defences to protect not only the US homeland but also US forces, allies and friends around the globe against ballistic missile attack, it is becoming clear that such attacks are not the only kind of missile threat with which policy-makers must contend. Proliferation of land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs), which pose enormous challenges to air defence systems and can be used to great...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7---2001/volume-7---issue-5/cruise-missile-proliferation/Tue, 01 Nov 2005 12:04:30 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTTue, 01 Nov 2005 12:04:30 GMT3678Free trade in the Americas Stumbling blocks to trade blocs Heads of state from 34 Western Hemisphere countries have injected new political momentum into attempts to create a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). At the Third Summit of the Americas, held on 20-22 April in Quebec City, Canada, leaders agreed to conclude negotiations on an FTAA by 1 January, 2005. Comprising 800 million consumers and accounting for over one-third of global economic output, the FTAA would constitute the world's...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7---2001/volume-7---issue-4/free-trade-in-the-americas/Tue, 01 Nov 2005 12:29:22 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTTue, 01 Nov 2005 12:29:22 GMT3683Indonesia's leadership crisis Would Megawati do better than Wahid? Since his election as Indonesia's president in October 1999, Abdurrahman Wahid has faced huge challenges. He and his unstable coalition government have needed not only to revive the country's economy, but also to bring the armed forces under more effective civilian control while managing the centre-periphery tensions that have increasingly appeared to threaten national cohesion. Another important task has been to prosecute those...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7---2001/volume-7---issue-3/indonesias-leadership-crisis/Tue, 01 Nov 2005 12:53:22 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTTue, 01 Nov 2005 12:53:22 GMT3688The future of Montenegro Prospects for independence If President Milo Djukanovic of Montenegro has his way there will soon be two new states in Europe: Montenegro and Serbia. At present they remain linked within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, which was founded in 1992, following the bloody collapse of the old six-republic federation. Open opposition from European Union countries and the United States to Montenegro's independence drive is unlikely to prevent its success. The coming weeks...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7---2001/volume-7---issue-2/the-future-of-montenegro/Tue, 01 Nov 2005 14:15:55 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTTue, 01 Nov 2005 14:15:55 GMT3693Colombia's war on drugs Disputing the plan Concerns are mounting in Colombia and neighbouring countries that regional violence could escalate as US-trained troops push into the southern province of Putumayo to curb narcotics production. Within the incoming US administration of George W. Bush there is strong support for the $7.5 billion Plan Colombia aimed at eradicating the drug business and boosting Colombia's economic and social development. But the international community is divided over its...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7---2001/volume-7---issue-1/colombias-war-on-drugs/Tue, 01 Nov 2005 14:54:46 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTTue, 01 Nov 2005 14:54:46 GMT3698What kind of future? http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8---2002/volume-8---issue-10/nato-after-the-prague-summit/Tue, 22 Nov 2005 12:27:38 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTTue, 22 Nov 2005 12:27:38 GMT3703Limited options for a solution Pyongyang's admission that it has a clandestine nuclear programme in violation of its treaty obligations has significantly increased tensions in and around the Korean Peninsula, and presented Washington and its regional allies with a major policy dilemma. While all sides are working towards a diplomatic solution, the dynamics of the dispute leave room for a potentially dangerous escalation. A surprising admission On 4 October 2002, US Assistant Secretary for East...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8---2002/volume-8---issue-9/north-korean-nuclear-tensions/Tue, 22 Nov 2005 12:34:18 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTTue, 22 Nov 2005 12:34:18 GMT3708US and Israeli options Although Iraq probably possesses only a small fraction of the longer-range al-Hussein ballistic missiles it had in 1991, the relatively few missiles still in Iraqi hands can be primitively armed with chemical and biological weapons (CBW). In 1991, Iraqi forces were pre-delegated with the authority to launch missiles only if nuclear weapons were used against the regime or Baghdad was threatened. With regime-change a declared US goal this time around, however, Saddam may be...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8---2002/volume-8---issue-8/defending-against-iraqi-missiles/Tue, 22 Nov 2005 12:46:06 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTTue, 22 Nov 2005 12:46:06 GMT3713Down, but far from out US-led military action in Afghanistan and the continuing allied military presence in that country – both in response to the 11 September 2001 attacks – have released the Taliban's grip on power. They have also deprived al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, his inner circle and hundreds of rank-and-file al-Qaeda members of a friendly host, a recruiting 'magnet' and a relatively comfortable physical base of operations. The military campaign killed some leaders, such...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8---2002/volume-8---issue-7/al-qaeda-one-year-on/Tue, 22 Nov 2005 13:05:05 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTTue, 22 Nov 2005 13:05:05 GMT3718Descending into the quagmire? Since the ouster of the Taliban regime, US policymakers have feared becoming bogged down in Afghanistan. This has locked them into a fixed approach, supporting a Northern Alliance (NA)-dominated central government and buying the cooperation of provincial warlords. However, ironically, the danger of being bogged down is rising owing to the failure of the US to show the tactical agility required to shape the political-military situation in a way that would encourage...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8---2002/volume-8---issue-6/americas-afghan-imbroglio/Wed, 23 Nov 2005 09:54:38 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTWed, 23 Nov 2005 09:54:38 GMT3723The US and the 'perilous crossroads' The incoming Bush administration identified the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and ballistic missiles to 'rogue states' as the most urgent security threat facing the US and advocated missile defence as the centrepiece of its response. In reaction to critics who argued that the more likely threat came from terrorists armed with 'suitcase bombs', rather than rogue states armed with missiles, the administration responded that it was...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8---2002/volume-8---issue-5/dealing-with-the-axis-of-evil/Tue, 22 Nov 2005 13:36:27 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTTue, 22 Nov 2005 13:36:27 GMT3732The quagmire of political reconstruction Current speculation over possible US military intervention to overthrow Iraqi President Saddam Hussein suggests that 'regime change' in Baghdad is more likely to be brought about in the near future by external intervention than by internal conspiracy. It is worth considering, therefore, what might follow from such action. Much that may occur in the wake of military action cannot be predicted. However, given the enormous problems associated with any...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8---2002/volume-8---issue-4/iraq-after-saddam/Wed, 23 Nov 2005 10:01:23 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTWed, 23 Nov 2005 10:01:23 GMT3733Which tactics and what force? Washington has made clear its desire for 'regime change' in Iraq, seeing Saddam Hussein's removal as the way to reduce Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) threats from Iraq. US efforts to garner support for military action have achieved little success to date, with key Middle Eastern and European states urging Washington to focus on the more immediate problem of the Israeli–Palestinian dispute. The diplomatic complexities surrounding US plans for action are...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8---2002/volume-8---issue-3/military-options-towards-iraq/Wed, 23 Nov 2005 10:08:54 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTWed, 23 Nov 2005 10:08:54 GMT3738India’s communal clashesThe Hindu–Muslim violence that has followed late February’s massacre by local Muslims of Hindu pilgrims passing through Godhra has so far remained largely confined to Gujarat state. Although at least 500 people had died as of early March, the violence has been smaller in scale than that which followed the destruction of the Ayodhya mosque by Hindu-nationalists in 1992. Then, nation-wide carnage left 3,000 dead. Still, the consequences of Godhra may be...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8---2002/volume-8---issue-2/Wed, 15 Feb 2006 15:13:53 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTWed, 15 Feb 2006 15:13:53 GMT3321Consequences beyond religion The Hindu–Muslim violence that has followed late February's massacre by local Muslims of Hindu pilgrims passing through Godhra has so far remained largely confined to Gujarat state. Although at least 500 people had died as of early March, the violence has been smaller in scale than that which followed the destruction of the Ayodhya mosque by Hindu-nationalists in 1992. Then, nation-wide carnage left 3,000 dead. Still, the consequences of Godhra may well be...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8---2002/volume-8---issue-2/indias-communal-clashes/Wed, 23 Nov 2005 10:20:30 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTWed, 23 Nov 2005 10:20:30 GMT3743A haven for al-qaeda? Somalia's persistent institutional weakness, coupled with known al-Qaeda connections to the country, makes it susceptible to 'hijacking' by al-Qaeda. It has been without a functioning central government since its dictator Mohamed Siad Barre was overthrown in 1991 after a brutal civil war. Armed from immense Cold War arsenals supplied by the Soviets and Americans, separate clans and subclans – extended genealogical networks – that had united against Siad Barre...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8---2002/volume-8---issue-1/somalia-and-the-war-on-terrorism/Wed, 23 Nov 2005 10:52:45 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTWed, 23 Nov 2005 10:52:45 GMT3748 A defining moment for the federation Serbia's parliamentary elections on 23 December will mark the definitive end of the Slobodan Milosevic era, as Serbia's former opposition consolidates power and takes full control of Serbia's institutions. However, this transition promises to be anything but smooth. The 18-party coalition known as the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS), whose supporters ousted Milosevic in October, risks collapse after the elections and the tasks facing the incoming goverhttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-10/serbia-goes-to-the-polls/Wed, 13 Sep 2006 10:49:55 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTWed, 13 Sep 2006 10:49:55 GMT3757 The debate over border management As the European Union prepares for the possible admission of new members within three to five years, political debate is intensifying among its 15 existing members, as well as its candidate states, over the issue of border controls. What began in 1985 as an agreement between core members of the EU on abolishing mutual border checkpoints has developed into an integral part of EU law. A revision to the EU treaties that came into force last year means that new memhttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-9/expanding-the-eu/Wed, 13 Sep 2006 10:50:41 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTWed, 13 Sep 2006 10:50:41 GMT3758Basque separatist terrorism A bloody resurgence Terrorism has returned to tarnish Spain's image as a prosperous and self-confident European nation. ETA (Basque Homeland and Liberty), the radical Basque separatist group, has killed 13 people and wounded many more since it called off a 14-month truce in December 1999, making this the bloodiest summer in seven years. ETA supporters clash regularly with riot police in the Basque cities of northern Spain. Buses are burned, banks and post offices are...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-8/basque-separatist-terrorism/Wed, 02 Nov 2005 10:13:08 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTWed, 02 Nov 2005 10:13:08 GMT3763Russia's armed forces Problems of reform and resettlement In Russia's April presidential elections, more than 80% of active service personnel voted for Vladimir Putin, compared with the 25% who voted for Boris Yeltsin in the first round of the 1996 presidential polls. Military personnel hoped that Putin – himself a former security-service officer – would address the acute social and economic problems facing the military after ten years of ill-implemented reforms. But Putin risks...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-7/russias-armed-forces/Wed, 02 Nov 2005 10:58:30 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTWed, 02 Nov 2005 10:58:30 GMT3768China's ambitions in Myanmar India steps up countermoves While Myanmar remains shunned by the West, the country's two giant neighbours, India and China, are jockeying for influence in Yangon. Since the beginning of the year, India's army chief General Ved Prakash Malik has made two trips to Myanmar and his Burmese counterpart General Maung Aye has visited both India and China. These top-level exchanges have highlighted Myanmar's importance in the strategic competition between Beijing and New...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-6/chinas-ambitions-in-myanmar/Wed, 02 Nov 2005 11:21:13 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTWed, 02 Nov 2005 11:21:13 GMT3773After the Korean summit Can the Koreas do business? Although political and military issues divide the two Koreas, both sides are hoping that business will bring them together. Economic links, facilitated by South Korean President Kim Dae Jung's 'sunshine' policy toward the North, have been expanding in recent years, despite intractable differences over politics and security. But North Korea will need to guarantee security if any rise in South Korean aid and investment in the North arising from...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-5/after-the-korean-summit/Mon, 30 Jan 2006 12:16:22 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTMon, 30 Jan 2006 12:16:22 GMT3778Diamonds and conflict Strategies for control International efforts to curb the trade in diamonds from conflict areas are likely to gain momentum as fighting for control of diamond mines in countries such as Sierra Leone, Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo focuses increasing attention on the problem. Foreign Ministers of the Group of Eight (G-8) countries are likely to endorse new initiatives at a meeting in Japan shortly before the organisation's July summit. But any measures they...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-4/diamonds-and-conflict/Wed, 02 Nov 2005 12:23:36 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTWed, 02 Nov 2005 12:23:36 GMT3783Stuck in the Lebanese 'mud' Israel's withdrawal from South Lebanon A unilateral withdrawal of Israeli troops from south Lebanon seems likely following the failure of the Geneva summit peace negotiations between US President Bill Clinton and Syrian President Hafez al-Assad on 26 March. The presence of the Israel Defence Force (IDF) in what Israelis disdainfully call the Lebanese `mud' is increasingly unpopular domestically, due to a constant toll of casualties inflicted by resistance groups...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-3/stuck-in-the-lebanese-mud/Wed, 02 Nov 2005 12:38:51 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTWed, 02 Nov 2005 12:38:51 GMT3788Towards crisis with Beijing? Taiwan's presidential elections on 18 March 2000 will mark a crucial stage in the island's political development and its relations with China. The polls could pave the way for a further relaxation of Taipei's restrictions on economic and transport links with the mainland. However, they are also fuelling China's anxieties about Taiwan's aspirations to become an internationally recognised sovereign state. Whoever wins, there is little likelihood that Beijing will...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-2/taiwans-presidential-elections/Wed, 02 Nov 2005 13:20:21 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTWed, 02 Nov 2005 13:20:21 GMT3794Towards authoritarian reform? Boris Yeltsin's resignation as Russian president on New Year's Eve 1999 left his designated successor, transitional President Vladimir Putin, as the overwhelming favourite to win presidential elections scheduled for 26 March 2000. In this case, the extensive powers of the Russian presidency, which have largely lain dormant in Yeltsin's feeble grip, will be assumed by a vigorous and ruthless 47-year-old former KGB agent. As prime minister and presumptive successor,...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-1/the-putin-regime-in-russia/Wed, 02 Nov 2005 13:28:35 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTWed, 02 Nov 2005 13:28:35 GMT3798Terror in TurkeyOn 19 December, Turkish authorities announced that they had seized a key suspect in connection with a series of suicide bombings over the previous month. The domestic and international public pressure to produce results and bring the perpetrators of the Istanbul bombings to justice will force the Turkish security apparatus to intensify its operations against radical Islamists. Even if these operations are poorly coordinated and result in the capture of militants close to -...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-9---2003/volume-9---issue-10/Wed, 15 Feb 2006 14:14:20 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTWed, 15 Feb 2006 14:14:20 GMT3310The problem of intelligence-gathering On 19 December, Turkish authorities announced that they had seized a key suspect in connection with a series of suicide bombings over the previous month. On the morning of Saturday 15 November 2003, two pick-up trucks driven by Islamist suicide bombers exploded within 15 minutes of each other outside two Istanbul synagogues, while 20 November saw Istanbul hit by two more suicide truck bombs, which exploded outside the British Consulate-General and the...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-9---2003/volume-9---issue-10/terror-in-turkey/Mon, 21 Nov 2005 14:14:59 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMTMon, 21 Nov 2005 14:14:59 GMT3803The dilemmas of transition One of the Bush administration’s most important legacies to date has been its decision to lead the transition from the traditional offence-dominant nuclear regime towards a new mix of offensive and defensive forces. Even before the Bush administration took office, strategic opinion in the United States was coalescing around the view that deterrence by punishment was increasingly insufficient for assuring national security in the post-Cold War era. Accordingly,...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-10-2004/volume-10---issue-6/the-impact-of-missile-defence-in-asia/Mon, 21 Nov 2005 13:50:18 GMTThu, 11 Aug 2005 10:23:15 GMTMon, 21 Nov 2005 13:50:18 GMT3898Purposes and prospects After decades of relative quiescence bordering on inertia, American defence strategy in East Asia and the bilateral security alliances that have long underpinned this strategy are on the cusp of far-reaching change. For the first time since the early 1990s, major American military units were withdrawn from the Korean Peninsula in 2004, with an additional third of the remaining forces scheduled to depart between now and the end of 2008. In Japan, increased integration of...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-11-2005/volume-11---issue-3/americas-alliances-in-east-asia/Mon, 14 Nov 2005 16:38:36 GMTThu, 11 Aug 2005 13:36:54 GMTMon, 14 Nov 2005 16:38:36 GMT3950Improved local security but political challengesThe Baghdad Security Plan or ‘surge’ that began in mid-February 2007 will reach its peak in terms of troop deployments by June, with the number of US soldiers in Iraq topping 160,000. General David Petraeus, commander of multinational forces in Iraq and the man responsible for implementing the plan, has repeatedly stated that success will need to be measured in the political and not the military arena. Overall, victory or defeat will...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-13-2007/volume-13-issue-4/the-baghdad-surge/Thu, 28 Jun 2007 15:58:01 GMTThu, 24 May 2007 18:07:11 GMTThu, 28 Jun 2007 15:58:01 GMT7313Fundamental shift in Palestinian politics In four days in mid-June 2007 the ‘Executive Force’ of the Islamist Resistance Movement (Hamas) seized control of the entire Gaza Strip, sweeping away key security services and the allied clan militia loyal to its mainstream nationalist rival Fatah. Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas and Fatah, echoed by Western governments and the government of Israel, did not delay in branding it a well-planned military coup. Abbas...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-13-2007/volume-13-issue-5/hamas-coup-in-gaza/Wed, 27 Jun 2007 11:12:09 GMTWed, 27 Jun 2007 10:46:37 GMTWed, 27 Jun 2007 11:12:09 GMT7638The EU moves on The European Union has taken an important step towards resolving the impasse into which it had sunk two years ago when proposals for institutional reforms, cast as a Constitutional Treaty, were rejected by voters in France and the Netherlands. Its members have struck a new deal on reform that will allow the EU to operate more effectively both internally and internationally. The accord it has also cleared the ground for a deeper political debate about the future role and nature...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-13-2007/volume-13-issue-6/reforming-europe/Fri, 03 Aug 2007 11:14:15 GMTFri, 03 Aug 2007 10:47:51 GMTFri, 03 Aug 2007 11:14:15 GMT7755Future in the balance General Pervez Musharraf’s seizure of power eight years ago was widely popular in Pakistan because his coup followed 11 years of chaotic democracy in which four successive governments – two led by Benazir Bhutto and two by Nawaz Sharif – were dogged by accusations of corruption and incompetence. He has led the country through a turbulent period, including provision of support to the American ‘war on terror’, military confrontation and...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-13-2007/volume-13-issue-8/volatile-pakistan/Tue, 27 Nov 2007 13:14:12 GMTWed, 24 Oct 2007 16:42:07 GMTTue, 27 Nov 2007 13:14:12 GMT8030Many candidates, sharp divisions The 2008 US presidential election campaign commenced, in effect, more than a year ago, and has nearly another year to go. Campaigning for America’s highest office has become virtually a never-ending feature of the political landscape. But voters only pay serious attention to the battles for their parties’ respective presidential nominations in the autumn. This real battle has now begun in earnest. The first important test – the complicated...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-13-2007/volume-13-issue-9/americas-election-choices/Fri, 30 Nov 2007 16:40:11 GMTFri, 30 Nov 2007 16:18:15 GMTFri, 30 Nov 2007 16:40:11 GMT8085 From Kyoto to Bali   On 3–15 December 2007, over 10,000 delegates, observers and journalists attended the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali at which representatives of 187 countries agreed on the ‘Bali Roadmap’. This is intended to pave the way to a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the first phase of which expires in 2012.   The Bali conference actually comprised five overlapping meetings of separate bodies...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-1/climate-change/Fri, 01 Feb 2008 15:50:05 GMTWed, 16 Jan 2008 09:51:55 GMTFri, 01 Feb 2008 15:50:05 GMT9118 A focus for Chinese diplomacy    The Olympic Games in Beijing in August are shining a spotlight on China’s growth as an economic and political power. Anxious to demonstrate that its rise is benign, China’s leaders have been modifying a range of foreign and domestic policies in the build-up to the event. These changes are likely to persist beyond the games, but so too will international concerns about the direction of the country’s development.   When Chinese officials were bidding in...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-2/the-beijing-olympics/Mon, 03 Mar 2008 13:19:35 GMTMon, 03 Mar 2008 12:07:03 GMTMon, 03 Mar 2008 13:19:34 GMT13575 Challenges facing verification Despite more than five years of a highly intrusive verification regime, it is clear that the determined efforts of the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) on Iraq have still not unveiled the full extent of Saddam Hussein’s extraordinarily ambitious war machine. The fact that Iraq’s development programmes in the nuclear, biological, chemical and missile fields is still unknown, and that...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-3---1997/volume-3---issue-1/Mon, 10 Mar 2008 15:38:17 GMTTue, 02 Aug 2005 13:15:25 GMTMon, 10 Mar 2008 15:38:17 GMT3370 Serbia goes to the polls Serbia's parliamentary elections on 23 December will mark the definitive end of the Slobodan Milosevic era, as Serbia's former opposition consolidates power and takes full control of Serbia's institutions. However, this transition promises to be anything but smooth. The 18-party coalition, whose supporters ousted Milosevic in October, risks collapse after the elections and the...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-10/Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:21:25 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 30 Mar 2008 17:21:25 GMT3349 Expanding the EU As the European Union prepares for the possible admission of new members within three to five years, political debate is intensifying among its members, as well as its candidate states, over the issue of border controls. One of the most controversial implications of EU border arrangements is that countries wanting to join the Union will first have to harden their frontiers with their...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-9/Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:24:22 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 30 Mar 2008 17:24:22 GMT3348 Basque separatist terrorism In recent weeks, Spain has suffered its bloodiest attacks by Basque terrorists in seven years. ETA, the radical Basque separatist group, has killed 13 people and wounded many more since it cancelled a 14-month truce in December 1999. The group’s supporters clash regularly with riot police in the Basque cities of northern Spain. A string of recent police successes has...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-8/Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:28:05 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 30 Mar 2008 17:28:05 GMT3347 Russia's armed forces Vladimir Putin’s rise to the Russian presidency raised hopes within the Russian military that the acute social and economic problems facing the armed forces after 10 years of ill-executed reforms could be resolved. But Putin’s proposed force-structure changes risk eroding this crucial pillar of support, unless he can also improve living conditions for military personnel and boost...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-7/Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:30:35 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 30 Mar 2008 17:30:34 GMT3346 China's ambitions in Myanmar While Myanmar remains shunned by the West, the country’s two giant neighbours, India and China, are jockeying for influence in Yangon. China enjoys a considerable head start, but any major foreign-policy changes in Myanmar are unlikely as long as its two most important leaders, Ne Win and General Than Shwe, are still alive. But there are signs of a possible power struggle...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-6/Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:33:11 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 30 Mar 2008 17:33:11 GMT3345 After the Korean summit The unprecedented summit between the leaders of North and South Korea in Pyongyang this month has led both sides to hope for stronger mutual economic ties. The North desperately needs investment and aid from the South to revive its shattered economy. But there are obstacles to closer cooperation. The North remains concerned about the social and political impact of opening up to...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-5/Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:36:06 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 30 Mar 2008 17:36:06 GMT3344 Diamonds and conflict International efforts to curb the trade in diamonds from conflict areas are gaining momentum as fighting for control of diamond mines in countries such as Sierra Leone, Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo attracts increasing global attention. The Group of Eight (G-8) is likely to endorse new initiatives at a meeting of their foreign ministers in July. But given the...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-4/Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:38:53 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 30 Mar 2008 17:38:52 GMT3343 Stuck in the Lebanese 'mud' A unilateral withdrawal of Israeli troops from south Lebanon seems likely following the failure of the Geneva summit peace negotiations between US President Bill Clinton and Syrian President Hafez al-Assad in March. The presence of Israeli troops in Lebanon is increasingly unpopular domestically. But withdrawal in the absence of a wider deal will increase the risk of...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-3/Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:41:58 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 30 Mar 2008 17:41:58 GMT3342 Taiwan's presidential elections Taiwan’s presidential elections in March 2000 could mark the end of more than 50 years of Kuomintang rule. The elections will have a significant impact on Taiwan’s relations with China. These deteriorated sharply in 1999 after Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui declared that the two countries should conduct their relations on a ‘special state-to-state basis’ – a move away...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-2/Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:44:55 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 30 Mar 2008 17:44:55 GMT3341 The Putin regime in Russia The surprise resignation of Russian President Boris Yeltsin on New Year’s Eve 1999 has left his chosen successor, transitional President Vladimir Putin, well placed to win the presidential elections due on 26 March 2000. Many Russians welcome Putin’s youth and determination after Yeltsin’s weak leadership. His launch of a campaign against rebels in Chechnya has also earned...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-1/Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:47:13 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 30 Mar 2008 17:47:12 GMT3340 NATO after the Prague summit NATO's Prague summit, on 21-22 November 2002, was a modest success. A confrontation over Iraq was avoided because US President George W. Bush's decision to take the issue to the UN both narrowed the transatlantic rift and put off the immediate prospect of military action. The challenge of a yawning capabilities gap between 21st-century US forces and under-funded, Cold...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8---2002/volume-8---issue-10/Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:52:53 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 30 Mar 2008 17:52:53 GMT3329 North Korean nuclear tensions Pyongyang's admission that it has a clandestine nuclear programme in violation of its treaty obligations has significantly increased tensions in and around the Korean Peninsula, and presented Washington and its regional allies with a major policy dilemma. While all sides are working towards a diplomatic solution, the dynamics of the dispute leave room for a potentially...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8---2002/volume-8---issue-9/Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:55:41 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 30 Mar 2008 17:55:41 GMT3328 Defending against Iraqi missiles Although Iraq probably possesses only a small fraction of the longer-range al-Hussein missiles it had in 1991, the relatively few missiles still in Iraqi hands can be primitively armed with chemical and biological weapons (CBW). With regime change a declared US goal this time round, Saddam may be more inclined to use CBW against both military targets and civilian...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8---2002/volume-8---issue-8/Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:58:51 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 30 Mar 2008 17:58:51 GMT3327 Al-Qaeda: one year on US-led military action in Afghanistan released the Taliban's grip on power and deprived al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, his inner circle and hundreds of rank-and-file al-Qaeda members of a friendly host, a recruiting 'magnet' and a relatively comfortable physical base of operations. The global intelligence and law-enforcement mobilisation, meanwhile, has made communications,...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8---2002/volume-8---issue-7/Sun, 30 Mar 2008 18:01:55 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 30 Mar 2008 18:01:55 GMT3326 America's Afghan imbroglio Since the ouster of the Taliban regime, US policymakers have feared becoming bogged down in Afghanistan.  This has locked them into a fixed approach, supporting the Northern Alliance-dominated central government and buying the cooperation of provincial warlords.  However, ironically, the danger of being bogged down is rising owing to the failure of the US to show the...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8---2002/volume-8---issue-6/Sun, 30 Mar 2008 18:04:33 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 30 Mar 2008 18:04:32 GMT3325 Dealing with the 'axis of evil' The 11 September terrorist attacks led the Bush administration to add its new top threat (terrorists possessing WMD) to its old top threat (‘rogue’ states with WMD) to produce the ‘axis of evil’.  To defeat this new threat, Washington has begun to develop a doctrine that emphasises defence (both missile defence and homeland security), pre-emptive actions and effecting...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8---2002/volume-8---issue-5/Sun, 30 Mar 2008 18:07:08 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 30 Mar 2008 18:07:08 GMT3324 Iraq after Saddam Current speculation over possible US military intervention to overthrow Iraqi President Saddam Hussein suggests that 'regime change' in Baghdad is more likely to be brought about in the near future by external intervention than by internal conspiracy. It is worth considering, therefore, what might follow from such action. Much that may occur in the wake of military action cannot be...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8---2002/volume-8---issue-4/Sun, 30 Mar 2008 18:10:02 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 30 Mar 2008 18:10:02 GMT3323 Military options towards Iraq Washington has made clear its desire for 'regime change' in Iraq, seeing Saddam Hussein's removal as the way to reduce perceived Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) threats emanating from that country. To achieve this, the US would have to plan an invasion resembling Operation Desert Storm and involving around 200,000 troops. Other options, such as using more limited force...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8---2002/volume-8---issue-3/Sun, 30 Mar 2008 18:13:04 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 30 Mar 2008 18:13:04 GMT3322 Somalia and the 'war' on terrorism Somalia’s persistent institutional weakness, coupled with known al-Qaeda connections to the country, makes it susceptible to '‘hijacking' by al-Qaeda. Major US action there is unlikely, however. Present US policy towards Somalia is essentially preventative. With foreign assistance and diplomatic support, Washington may choose to encourage the political and economic...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8---2002/volume-8---issue-1/Sun, 30 Mar 2008 18:21:39 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 30 Mar 2008 18:21:39 GMT3320 Post-Taliban Afghanistan On 6 December in Bonn, Afghan factions reached agreement on the composition of an Interim Administration to govern the country in the initial post-Taliban period. They also agreed a series of comprehensive, step-by-step consultations aimed at devising more permanent political arrangements backed by a new constitution. In recognition of the fact that inclusiveness has a large...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7---2001/volume-7---issue-10/Sun, 11 May 2008 18:46:10 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 11 May 2008 18:46:09 GMT3339 Germany's 'new' foreign policy On 7 November, the German cabinet agreed, subject to the approval of the Bundestag, a US request for military support in the international campaign against terrorism. Berlin indicated its willingness to deploy up to 3,900 troops. The move follows recent attempts by Chancellor Gerhard Schröder explicitly to recast Germany's place on the international scene and move towards a more...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7---2001/volume-7---issue-9/Sun, 11 May 2008 18:52:43 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 11 May 2008 18:52:43 GMT3338 The aftermath of 11 September Following the devastating 11 September terrorist attacks on New York and Washington DC, the US and key allies are focused on how to combat al-Qaeda, the network allegedly responsible for the atrocities. There are powerful arguments to support military action against the group and its leader Osama bin Laden, but any force would have to be used extremely carefully and in...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7---2001/volume-7---issue-8/Sun, 11 May 2008 18:56:33 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 11 May 2008 18:56:33 GMT3337 Jordan's predicaments Jordan's King Abdullah is being put to the test. The effects of the second Palestinian intifada have spread beyond Israel: Jordan too has struggled to contain the political, security and economic ramifications of the ten months of violent protests. As a relatively small and weak state buffeted by regional powers, Jordan's prime objective must be to navigate the present crisis and...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7---2001/volume-7---issue-7/Sun, 11 May 2008 19:00:55 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 11 May 2008 19:00:54 GMT3336 Russia's military satellites Russia's military satellite programme has diminished greatly since the break-up of the Soviet Union. During the 1980s, the Soviet Space programme typically made 90-100 launch attempts annually, the majority being dedicated military satellites. The rate has since dropped by more than half, with military payloads in the minority. With the ending of the Cold War, a scaling...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7---2001/volume-7---issue-6/Sun, 11 May 2008 19:05:16 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 11 May 2008 19:05:16 GMT3335 Cruise Missile Proliferation As international debate rages over US plans to deploy defences to protect not only the US homeland but also US forces, allies and friends around the globe against ballistic missile attack, it is becoming clear that such attacks are not the only kind of missile threat with which policy-makers must contend. Proliferation of land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs), which pose...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7---2001/volume-7---issue-5/Sun, 11 May 2008 19:08:32 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 11 May 2008 19:08:32 GMT3334 Free trade in the Americas Heads of state from 34 Western Hemisphere countries have injected new political momentum into attempts to create a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). However, progress will not be achieved easily or quickly. In both the US and Latin America, public opinion is divided on the virtues of a hemispheric trade bloc. The two key countries involved in the negotiations, the US...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7---2001/volume-7---issue-4/Sun, 11 May 2008 19:11:52 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 11 May 2008 19:11:52 GMT3333 Indonesia's leadership crisis Since his election as Indonesia’s President in October 1999, Aburrahman Wahid has faced huge challenges. He and his unstable coalition government have needed not only to revive a floundering economy, but also bring the armed forces under more effective civilian control while managing the centre-periphery tensions that have increasingly appeared to threaten national cohesion. Wahid’s...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7---2001/volume-7---issue-3/Sun, 11 May 2008 19:21:29 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 11 May 2008 19:21:29 GMT3332 The future of Montenegro If Milo Djukanovic, the president of Montenegro, has his way there will be soon be two new states in Europe: Montenegro and Serbia. Both European Union countries and the United States have told the Montenegrins that they oppose its move to independence, but this alone is unlikely to stop it happening. Full text & PDF (free to all users) >>>...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7---2001/volume-7---issue-2/Sun, 11 May 2008 19:25:46 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 11 May 2008 19:25:45 GMT3331 Colombia's war on drugs There is strong support in the incoming US administration for the $7.5 billion Plan Colombia aimed at eradicating Colombia's drug business and boosting its economic and social development. But the international community is divided over the plan's likely effectiveness. Many EU countries fear that the programme will exacerbate the root causes of Colombia's instability. They have...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7---2001/volume-7---issue-1/Sun, 11 May 2008 19:30:19 GMTSun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMTSun, 11 May 2008 19:30:19 GMT3330Saudi Arabia tackles the radical threat from within   A programme aimed at reintegrating jihadists into society forms an important and innovative part of Saudi Arabia's efforts to deal with radicals. So far, it appears to be a success – albeit a qualified one.   Saudi Arabia's realisation that it was facing a threat stemmed not only from the activities of Osama bin Laden, the al-Qaeda leader and son of a Saudi construction magnate; in the 11 September 2001 attacks on the United States,...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-5/rehabilitating-the-jihadists/Fri, 22 Aug 2008 09:26:37 GMTMon, 30 Jun 2008 16:51:27 GMTFri, 22 Aug 2008 09:26:37 GMT18120Gates seeks tighter focus on current conflicts   In his first 19 months as US secretary of defense, Robert Gates has sacked some of the highest-ranking generals and service secretaries in the US military, forced others to resign or failed to renominate them. These personnel changes were sparked by different incidents. However, together they demonstrate Gates's desire to have the Pentagon focus more on the two wars at hand – Iraq and Afghanistan – rather than gazing into the distant future. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-6/all-change-at-the-pentagon/Wed, 27 Aug 2008 11:14:51 GMTMon, 04 Aug 2008 11:38:35 GMTWed, 27 Aug 2008 11:14:51 GMT19003No winners in Georgian conflict   The outbreak of war in Georgia has left no outright victors. While Moscow could claim to have won the military battle, it remains isolated on the world stage in its formal recognition of the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states. The South Ossetians have taken a step towards eventual reunification with North Ossetia, but Abkhazia may find itself more closely tied to Russia than it had been hoping. Georgia is certainly worse off after the brief conflihttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/a-failure-of-strategy/-page-2/-page-3/Mon, 17 Nov 2008 15:04:45 GMTFri, 03 Oct 2008 18:16:56 GMTMon, 17 Nov 2008 15:04:45 GMT20335Extraordinary measures to restore stability http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-8/the-wests-financial-crisis/page-2/Fri, 10 Oct 2008 18:34:33 GMTTue, 07 Oct 2008 15:30:14 GMTFri, 10 Oct 2008 18:34:33 GMT20438No winners in Georgian conflict   The outbreak of war in Georgia has left no outright victors. While Moscow could claim to have won the military battle, it remains isolated on the world stage in its formal recognition of the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states. The South Ossetians have taken a step towards eventual reunification with North Ossetia, but Abkhazia may find itself more closely tied to Russia than it had been hoping. Georgia is certainly worse off after the brief conflihttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/a-failure-of-strategy/-page-2/Mon, 17 Nov 2008 15:03:50 GMTFri, 03 Oct 2008 18:00:24 GMTMon, 17 Nov 2008 15:03:50 GMT20334How the major events played out From the moment Georgian forces launched an attack on the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, on 7 August to the day in early September when Russia agreed to promptly withdraw its troops from undisputed Georgian territory surrounding South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Strategic Comments provides a blow-by-blow guide to the conflict.http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/a-chronology-of-the-crisis/page-2/Mon, 17 Nov 2008 15:06:49 GMTSun, 05 Oct 2008 15:19:54 GMTMon, 17 Nov 2008 15:06:49 GMT20372The concerns of former Soviet states From Ukraine to Central Asia – and in Azerbaijan's ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh – shock waves from Russia's intervention in Georgia are still being felt. Moscow's actions signalled to its neighbours that it was ready to defend its interests – by military means if necessary. It increasingly sees NATO enlargement and Western military presence in the region as 'red lines' not to be crossed, and, if they are, it is ready to respond assertivelyhttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/anxious-neighbours/page-2/Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:07:15 GMTSun, 05 Oct 2008 16:00:59 GMTMon, 17 Nov 2008 17:07:15 GMT20374The concerns of former Soviet states From Ukraine to Central Asia – and in Azerbaijan's ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh – shock waves from Russia's intervention in Georgia are still being felt. Moscow's actions signalled to its neighbours that it was ready to defend its interests – by military means if necessary. It increasingly sees NATO enlargement and Western military presence in the region as 'red lines' not to be crossed, and, if they are, it is ready to respond assertivelyhttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/anxious-neighbours/page-3/Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:08:03 GMTSun, 05 Oct 2008 16:22:01 GMTMon, 17 Nov 2008 17:08:03 GMT20375Key quotes from the crisis Key quotes from people involved in the crisis provide a flavour of the diplomatic, and the not-so-diplomatic, encounters that ran alongside the military action in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/georgia-the-war-in-words/page-2/Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:09:02 GMTMon, 06 Oct 2008 17:23:55 GMTMon, 17 Nov 2008 17:09:02 GMT20407Key quotes from the crisis Key quotes from people involved in the crisis provide a flavour of the diplomatic, and the not-so-diplomatic, encounters that ran alongside the military action in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/georgia-the-war-in-words/page-3/Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:09:48 GMTMon, 06 Oct 2008 17:47:57 GMTMon, 17 Nov 2008 17:09:48 GMT20417Short war shows lack of modern systems Russia's unexpectedly rapid military response to Georgia's moves on South Ossetia upset all of Georgia's key strategic calculations. However, the campaign also revealed Russian military weaknesses. Its forces are equipped with outmoded weapons and victory appears to have been won largely as a result of the Georgian army’s collapse. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/russias-rapid-reaction/page-2/Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:11:36 GMTSun, 05 Oct 2008 16:42:37 GMTMon, 17 Nov 2008 17:11:36 GMT20379Short war shows lack of modern systems Russia's unexpectedly rapid military response to Georgia's moves on South Ossetia upset all of Georgia's key strategic calculations. However, the campaign also revealed Russian military weaknesses. Its forces are equipped with outmoded weapons and victory appears to have been won largely as a result of the Georgian army’s collapse. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/russias-rapid-reaction/page-3/Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:12:23 GMTSun, 05 Oct 2008 16:44:23 GMTMon, 17 Nov 2008 17:12:23 GMT20380Key quotes from the crisis Key quotes from people involved in the crisis provide a flavour of the diplomatic, and the not-so-diplomatic, encounters that ran alongside the military action in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/georgia-the-war-in-words/page-4/Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:37:52 GMTTue, 07 Oct 2008 14:33:04 GMTMon, 17 Nov 2008 17:37:52 GMT20434Key quotes from the crisis Key quotes from people involved in the crisis provide a flavour of the diplomatic, and the not-so-diplomatic, encounters that ran alongside the military action in South Ossetia and Abkhazia.http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/georgia-the-war-in-words/Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:54:01 GMTSun, 05 Oct 2008 16:36:24 GMTWed, 19 Nov 2008 10:54:01 GMT20378Short war shows lack of modern systems Russia's unexpectedly rapid military response to Georgia's moves on South Ossetia upset all of Georgia's key strategic calculations. However, the campaign also revealed Russian military weaknesses. Its forces are equipped with outmoded weapons and victory appears to have been won largely as a result of the Georgian army’s collapse. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/russias-rapid-reaction/Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:54:25 GMTSun, 05 Oct 2008 16:32:51 GMTWed, 19 Nov 2008 10:54:25 GMT20377Risks heightened after war Georgia is the key transit country for Caspian oil and gas exports to the West, so war on its territory raised questions over Europe’s energy supplies. There are plans for the Nabucco project to expand the supply of Caspian and Central Asian gas to the Continent without going through Russia. However, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are unwilling to alienate Moscow at a time when it is asserting its influence in the region.http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/europes-energy-dependence/Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:54:48 GMTSun, 05 Oct 2008 16:24:43 GMTWed, 19 Nov 2008 10:54:48 GMT20376The concerns of former Soviet states From Ukraine to Central Asia – and in Azerbaijan's ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh – shock waves from Russia's intervention in Georgia are still being felt. Moscow's actions signalled to its neighbours that it was ready to defend its interests – by military means if necessary. It increasingly sees NATO enlargement and Western military presence in the region as 'red lines' not to be crossed, and, if they are, it is ready to respond assertivelyhttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/anxious-neighbours/Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:55:09 GMTSun, 05 Oct 2008 15:54:14 GMTWed, 19 Nov 2008 10:55:09 GMT20373How the key events played out   From the moment Georgian forces launched an attack on the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, on 7 August to the day in early September when Russia agreed to promptly withdraw its troops from undisputed Georgian territory surrounding South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Strategic Comments provides a blow-by-blow guide to the conflict.http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/a-chronology-of-the-crisis/Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:55:30 GMTSun, 05 Oct 2008 14:52:39 GMTWed, 19 Nov 2008 10:55:30 GMT20369Threefold crisis rocks country's foundations http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-9/pakistan-on-the-brink/Thu, 11 Dec 2008 15:55:09 GMTSun, 16 Nov 2008 13:38:22 GMTThu, 11 Dec 2008 15:55:09 GMT21337Extraordinary measures to restore stability http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-8/the-wests-financial-crisis/page-3/Thu, 04 Dec 2008 10:26:20 GMTFri, 10 Oct 2008 16:47:13 GMTThu, 04 Dec 2008 10:26:20 GMT20555Threefold crisis rocks country's foundations http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-9/pakistan-on-the-brink/page-2/Thu, 11 Dec 2008 15:48:23 GMTSun, 16 Nov 2008 13:38:23 GMTThu, 11 Dec 2008 15:48:23 GMT21338How close is it? The policy options available to the international community in its efforts to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear-weapons capability depend to a great extent on how close Iran is to reaching that goal. As Iran continued to forge ahead with uranium-enrichment operations, senior officials from the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia and China gathered in New York in late September 2007 to discuss a possible new UN Security Council resolution. However, it...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-13-2007/volume-13-issue-7/nuclear-iran/Thu, 11 Dec 2008 13:54:28 GMTThu, 27 Sep 2007 13:24:36 GMTThu, 11 Dec 2008 13:54:28 GMT7942http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-10/can-obama-re-engage-iran/page-2/Thu, 11 Dec 2008 00:00:00 GMTFri, 05 Dec 2008 11:20:17 GMTWed, 10 Dec 2008 16:31:07 GMT22077 National Front rule in jeopardy?   By registering a resounding repudiation of the recent policies and record of Malaysia’s government, the results of elections to its federal and state parliaments on 8 March surprised observers of the country’s politics. The Barisan Nasional (BN, or National Front) coalition, which has governed since independence in 1957, retained control of the federal government. But the opposition took an unprecedentedly large number of parliamentary seats and denied...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-3/malaysias-new-politics/Thu, 11 Dec 2008 13:04:25 GMTFri, 04 Apr 2008 19:41:47 GMTThu, 11 Dec 2008 13:04:25 GMT15034What are the prospects for a diplomatic resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue? The answer is shaping up as a contest of wills. On the one hand, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC – China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States) have agreed gradually to increase mandatory economic and political sanctions against Iran until it agrees to suspend its uranium-enrichment programme. Suspension is a condition for beginning multilateral...http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-13-2007/volume-13-issue-3/irans-nuclear-programme/Thu, 11 Dec 2008 13:52:49 GMTMon, 30 Apr 2007 18:46:22 GMTThu, 11 Dec 2008 13:52:49 GMT7173Prospects for new approach on nuclear issuehttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-10/can-obama-re-engage-iran/Thu, 11 Dec 2008 00:00:00 GMTFri, 05 Dec 2008 11:20:16 GMTThu, 11 Dec 2008 14:26:35 GMT22076Threefold crisis rocks country's foundations Attacks raise intelligence, security and political questionshttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-10/terror-in-mumbai/page-2/Thu, 11 Dec 2008 15:57:30 GMTFri, 05 Dec 2008 11:20:13 GMTThu, 11 Dec 2008 15:57:30 GMT22070Attacks raise intelligence, security and political questions http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-10/terror-in-mumbai/Thu, 11 Dec 2008 00:00:00 GMTFri, 05 Dec 2008 11:20:13 GMTFri, 12 Dec 2008 11:37:28 GMT22069No winners in Georgian conflict   The outbreak of war in Georgia has left no outright victors. While Moscow could claim to have won the military battle, it remains isolated on the world stage in its formal recognition of the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states. The South Ossetians have taken a step towards eventual reunification with North Ossetia, but Abkhazia may find itself more closely tied to Russia than it had been hoping. Georgia is certainly worse off after the brief conflihttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/a-failure-of-strategy/Fri, 16 Jan 2009 13:54:26 GMTThu, 02 Oct 2008 16:56:21 GMTFri, 16 Jan 2009 13:54:26 GMT20287Attacks raise intelligence, security and political questionshttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-10/terror-in-mumbai/page-3/Tue, 27 Jan 2009 16:57:03 GMTThu, 11 Dec 2008 15:34:29 GMTTue, 27 Jan 2009 16:57:03 GMT22393A new US approach to sub-Saharan engagement African countries are reluctant to host regional headquarters for AFRICOM, the United States' new command centre for the continent, so the US needed a novel approach to strategic engagement. Its Navy has taken the lead with the 'Africa Partnership Station' concept. On the programme's inaugural tour, the USS Fort Henry and three other craft travelled around Africa engaging in a broad range of maritime-security training and community-outreach schemes.http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-6/the-africa-partnership-station/Wed, 04 Feb 2009 15:53:02 GMTMon, 04 Aug 2008 11:38:36 GMTWed, 04 Feb 2009 15:53:02 GMT19005Further tests needed to cement recent advanceshttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-1/irans-missile-development/page-2/Wed, 11 Feb 2009 16:29:19 GMTTue, 03 Feb 2009 15:26:55 GMTWed, 11 Feb 2009 16:29:18 GMT23696UK trials reveal new types of networkshttp://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-1/the-evolving-terrorist-threat/Wed, 11 Feb 2009 18:25:10 GMTWed, 04 Feb 2009 10:37:31 GMTWed, 11 Feb 2009 18:25:09 GMT23734