http://www.iiss.org/strategic-comments.rss Could Iran shut the Strait of Hormuz, or significantly hinder traffic passing through it? A recent decision by the European Union to impose a total embargo on the purchase of Iranian oil has prompted threats from Tehran to close the world's most important oil chokepoint. However, an assessment of military capabilities deployed in the area, and of likely tactics, suggests that Iran would find it difficult or unpalatable to cause major disruption. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-18-2012/february/strait-of-hormuz-irans-disruptive-military-options/ 62479 Tue, 07 Feb 2012 00:00:00 GMT 20120207000000 Mon, 06 Feb 2012 15:37:26 GMT 20120206153726 Fri, 10 Feb 2012 10:16:40 GMT 2012021010101640 A wave of anti-government protests in Russia in late 2011 has rocked its political establishment. United in anger at President Dmitry Medvedev's decision to cede his post to Prime Minister Vladimir Putin, as well as at evidence of electoral fraud in recent legislative elections, up to 100,000 Russians gathered on 24 December to take part in some of the country's largest protests since the collapse of the Soviet Union. Yet those who expect Russia to follow the path of Arab revolutions are likely to be disapp http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-18-2012/january/russias-protests-not-a-revolution-but-an-awakening/ 62274 Tue, 31 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT 20120131000000 Tue, 31 Jan 2012 10:36:30 GMT 20120131103630 Fri, 03 Feb 2012 10:33:52 GMT 2012020310103352 Relations between Washington and Islamabad deteriorated rapidly during 2011. A series of incidents, including the death of Osama bin Laden in an American raid in Pakistan and the killing of Pakistani soldiers by NATO forces in a skirmish on the Afghan border, created a poisonous atmosphere. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-18-2012/january/us-and-pakistan-a-troubled-relationship/ 61602 Tue, 10 Jan 2012 00:00:00 GMT 20120110000000 Tue, 10 Jan 2012 13:06:11 GMT 20120110130611 Tue, 10 Jan 2012 17:00:37 GMT 201201101750037 The latest round of climate negotiations in Durban, South Africa, ended in a cliff-hanger in the early hours of 11 December. A last-minute huddle on the conference floor produced an unexpected agreement to extend the Kyoto Protocol, and a commitment to produce a replacement for it. Though the deal failed to meet what many see as the minimum cut in emissions needed to limit global warming to no more than 2C, it was probably the best outcome that could have been hoped for. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-17-2011/december/durbans-surprise-climate-deal/ 61108 Wed, 25 Jan 2012 16:43:22 GMT 20120125164322 Tue, 13 Dec 2011 17:21:23 GMT 20111213172123 Wed, 25 Jan 2012 16:43:22 GMT 201201251644322 Egypt's convoluted transition from authoritarian rule to a more democratic system continues to suffer from serious tremors. In recent weeks, activists failed in an attempt to revive the revolution and challenge military rule, though the military did offer concessions and installed a new interim government. While the country's most free parliamentary elections in decades are under way - with Islamist parties so far winning easily - the future course of Egypt's revolution remains highly uncertain. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-17-2011/december/egypts-fragile-transition-to-democracy/ 60751 Thu, 02 Feb 2012 12:00:01 GMT 20120202120001 Wed, 30 Nov 2011 12:21:08 GMT 20111130122108 Thu, 02 Feb 2012 12:00:00 GMT 2012020212120000 A contentious political calendar is about to unfold in South Africa where the ruling African National Congress (ANC) is in the throes of an identity crisis. The year 2012 will begin with an ostentatious centenary party on 8 January when the continent's oldest liberation movement will celebrate 100 years of struggle politics. It will close with a party conference in December from which the next crop of leaders will emerge to steer the ANC and South Africa through the next few years. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-17-2011/december/things-fall-apart-in-south-africas-anc/ 60167 Wed, 25 Jan 2012 16:46:35 GMT 20120125164635 Fri, 11 Nov 2011 18:21:53 GMT 20111111182153 Wed, 25 Jan 2012 16:46:34 GMT 201201251644634 When British Prime Minster David Cameron and French President Nicolas Sarkozy signed the Defence and Security Cooperation Treaty just over a year ago, neither could have realised how quickly elements of this closer relationship would be tested, with armed intervention in Libya. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-17-2011/december/the-anglo-french-entente-frugale-plus/ 60665 Mon, 05 Dec 2011 13:01:36 GMT 20111205130136 Mon, 28 Nov 2011 14:25:02 GMT 20111128142502 Mon, 05 Dec 2011 13:01:35 GMT 201112051310135 The Pakistani province of Baluchistan hit the headlines recently when Islamabad responded to the deaths of its soldiers in a NATO attack by closing Western military supply routes running through it. However, the area has been a source of conflict for decades as ethnic Baluch have waged a campaign for greater political and economic freedom from Islamabad. Rising Taliban and sectarian attacks have added to the violence this year. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-17-2011/december/bad-times-in-baluchistan/ 57552 Thu, 18 Aug 2011 00:00:00 GMT 20110818000000 Mon, 15 Aug 2011 17:51:55 GMT 20110815175155 Wed, 25 Jan 2012 16:52:11 GMT 201201251645211 An evolving crisis over Iran's nuclear programme escalated this month as an IAEA report detailed evidence of Iranian R&D work on nuclear weapons, mostly dating to pre-2004, and the US and allies invoked the harshest sanctions yet. Yet amidst resumed talk of unilateral Israeli air strikes, Iran showed no sign of backing down. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-17-2011/november/iaea-report-death-knell-of-iran-diplomacy/ 60662 Thu, 02 Feb 2012 12:01:12 GMT 20120202120112 Mon, 28 Nov 2011 14:20:28 GMT 20111128142028 Thu, 02 Feb 2012 12:01:12 GMT 2012020212120112 The death of FARC rebel leader Alfonso Cano during a Colombian special forces raid on 4 November 2011 was the latest in a series of government successes against the country's largest left-wing insurgent group. A fascinating article republished from local magazine Semana (below) shows in rare detail how his death resulted from a well-planned and adventurous intelligence operation involving officers infiltrating communities deep inside FARC territory, masquerading as shopkeepers, drivers and more. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-17-2011/november/the-downfall-of-farc-leader-alfonso-cano/ 60552 Thu, 12 Jan 2012 16:08:28 GMT 20120112160828 Wed, 23 Nov 2011 19:26:59 GMT 20111123192659 Thu, 12 Jan 2012 16:08:27 GMT 201201121640827 Jordan, Lebanon, Syria and Turkey plan to inaugurate a free-trade zone in 2011 as the first step towards the creation of a Middle Eastern version of the European Union. The move has reinforced concerns in the West that Turkey is turning away from a Western-oriented foreign policy. In fact, the recent shift in Turkeys approach is the culmination of a process that began soon after the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002, and has accelerated since Ahmet Davutoglu was appointed for http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-16-2010/october/turkeys-bid-to-raise-influence-in-middle-east/ 48321 Mon, 25 Oct 2010 00:00:00 GMT 20101025000000 Mon, 25 Oct 2010 10:34:48 GMT 20101025103448 Tue, 11 Oct 2011 12:52:04 GMT 2011101112125204 The People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) has in 2010 taken part in numerous exercises, experimented with long-range force projection and represented China abroad in a number of diplomatic visits. This heightened level of activity results from an ambitious naval strategy which seeks to secure China's access to energy resources and to give it more diplomatic leverage in territorial disputes with its neighbours. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-16-2010/october/chinas-three-point-naval-strategy/ 47931 Thu, 14 Oct 2010 00:00:00 GMT 20101014000000 Thu, 14 Oct 2010 14:23:38 GMT 20101014142338 Sun, 14 Aug 2011 18:27:45 GMT 201108141862745 Missiles launched from unmanned aircraft to disrupt al-Qaeda and related groups outside the recognised conflict zones of Iraq and Afghanistan have become a key weapon in Washington's counter-terrorism armoury. Judging that this campaign is central to the national-security interests of the United States, President Barack Obama has intensified it, proving wrong those who believed that it would be abandoned along with the rhetoric of former President George W. Bush's 'war on terror'. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-16-2010/october/us-intensifies-drone-strikes-in-pakistan/ 47866 Thu, 14 Oct 2010 00:00:00 GMT 20101014000000 Wed, 13 Oct 2010 10:22:56 GMT 20101013102256 Wed, 20 Apr 2011 14:12:47 GMT 201104201421247 India's long-running Maoist insurgency has increased in intensity in recent months. In April, 76 paramilitary police were killed by Naxalite guerrillas in a brutal hit-and-run ambush near Chintalnar in Dantewada district in the central state of Chhattisgarh the largest Naxalite strike in the group's 43-year history. There were further attacks in May and June, including the ambush of a patrol killing 27 policemen, and suspected involvement in a train crash that killed 147. This followed an outbreak of viol http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-16-2010/september/indias-maoist-challenge/ 46221 Wed, 08 Dec 2010 15:59:33 GMT 20101208155933 Thu, 02 Sep 2010 14:03:16 GMT 20100902140316 Wed, 08 Dec 2010 15:59:33 GMT 201012081535933 A year ago Serbias prospects looked somewhat grim. Blocked on the road to European integration, it was bracing itself for a predicted economic contraction of up to 10%. Its citizens needed visas to travel to most countries outside the region. In a short period, however, things have changed so much that Serbian leaders have taken to claiming that their country is retaking its place as the natural leader of the region. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-16-2010/january/serbia-surges-forward/ 35307 Mon, 14 Jun 2010 16:29:06 GMT 20100614162906 Thu, 28 Jan 2010 09:42:24 GMT 20100128094224 Mon, 14 Jun 2010 16:29:00 GMT 201006141642900 The trend towards violence and extremism in South Asia moved inexorably upwards in 2009. Afghanistan and Pakistan experienced major increases in terrorist incidents, often involving suicide bombings against high-profile urban targets including hotels frequented by foreign nationals and installations belonging to the security forces. Though governments have begun to take small practical steps to manage the problem more effectively, these are unlikely to have much impact in the short term. The likelihood of c http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-16-2010/january/rising-extremism-in-south-asia/ 35124 Mon, 25 Jan 2010 11:42:00 GMT 20100125114200 Mon, 25 Jan 2010 11:35:25 GMT 20100125113525 Tue, 26 Jan 2010 17:59:32 GMT 201001261755932 The global agreement on climate change reached in Copenhagen in December 2009 faces its first test at the end of January when individual countries submit schedules for reducing carbon emissions over the next 10 years. Their commitment to do so was part of the Copenhagen Accord to which heads of government signed up following two frenetic weeks of bargaining. The Accord fell far short of the goal set two years earlier in Bali, Indonesia to produce a legally global treaty to replace the Kyoto Protocol, which http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-16-2010/january/copenhagen-accord-faces-first-test/ 34725 Tue, 19 Jan 2010 10:01:41 GMT 20100119100141 Tue, 12 Jan 2010 18:02:34 GMT 20100112180234 Tue, 19 Jan 2010 10:01:37 GMT 2010011910100137 Troop increase will help, but new strategy faces big challenges http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-10/obamas-war-in-afghanistan/ 34189 Sun, 17 Jan 2010 15:39:15 GMT 20100117153915 Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:36:36 GMT 20091215173636 Sun, 17 Jan 2010 15:39:10 GMT 201001171533910 Washington sets priorities for 2010 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-10/recovering-iraqi-sovereignty/ 34205 Mon, 11 Jan 2010 14:02:07 GMT 20100111140207 Wed, 16 Dec 2009 10:03:50 GMT 20091216100350 Mon, 11 Jan 2010 14:02:04 GMT 201001111420204 Alliance's mission to be redefined http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-10/a-new-strategic-concept-for-nato/ 34208 Mon, 11 Jan 2010 14:12:56 GMT 20100111141256 Wed, 16 Dec 2009 10:06:28 GMT 20091216100628 Mon, 11 Jan 2010 14:12:52 GMT 201001111421252 Growing momentum on preventing nuclear terrorism http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-10/new-impetus-for-nuclear-security/ 34211 Thu, 17 Dec 2009 10:27:00 GMT 20091217102700 Wed, 16 Dec 2009 10:09:29 GMT 20091216100929 Mon, 11 Jan 2010 14:15:10 GMT 201001111421510 Unrest of 2008 prompts policymakers into action http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-10/building-global-food-security/ 34214 Tue, 01 Mar 2011 11:56:40 GMT 20110301115640 Wed, 16 Dec 2009 10:11:49 GMT 20091216101149 Tue, 01 Mar 2011 11:56:40 GMT 2011030111115640 Alliance views its future cautiously http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-2/natos-60th-birthday/ 24628 Wed, 03 Mar 2010 17:18:35 GMT 20100303171835 Wed, 04 Mar 2009 17:21:05 GMT 20090304172105 Wed, 03 Mar 2010 17:18:31 GMT 201003031751831 Further tests needed to cement recent advances http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-1/irans-missile-development/ 23695 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 12:18:04 GMT 20090619121804 Tue, 03 Feb 2009 15:26:54 GMT 20090203152654 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 12:18:01 GMT 2009061912121801 Rise of home-grown terrorism http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-3/islamic-extremism-in-india/page-2/ 25146 Thu, 30 Apr 2009 14:17:06 GMT 20090430141706 Wed, 25 Mar 2009 10:21:40 GMT 20090325102140 Thu, 30 Apr 2009 14:17:03 GMT 200904301421703 Growth of home-grown terrorism http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-3/islamic-extremism-in-india/ 25145 Wed, 01 Apr 2009 17:33:17 GMT 20090401173317 Wed, 25 Mar 2009 10:21:40 GMT 20090325102140 Wed, 01 Apr 2009 17:33:14 GMT 200904011753314 How the military increasingly uses pilotless aircraft and the controversies http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-4/the-drones-of-war/page-2/ 26542 Tue, 12 May 2009 16:23:25 GMT 20090512162325 Fri, 08 May 2009 18:10:49 GMT 20090508181049 Tue, 12 May 2009 16:23:22 GMT 200905121642322 Nuclear test and missile launches go beyond usual brinkmanship http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-5/north-koreas-dangerous-game/ 28173 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 15:33:11 GMT 20090622153311 Thu, 18 Jun 2009 11:48:12 GMT 20090618114812 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 15:33:08 GMT 200906221533308 Nuclear test and missile launches go beyond usual brinkmanship http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-5/north-koreas-dangerous-game/page-2/ 28174 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 15:34:25 GMT 20090622153425 Thu, 18 Jun 2009 11:48:13 GMT 20090618114813 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 15:34:21 GMT 200906221533421 Nuclear test and missile launches go beyond usual brinkmanship http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-6/deadlock-on-climate-change/page-2/ 28641 Tue, 18 Aug 2009 16:42:17 GMT 20090818164217 Thu, 09 Jul 2009 10:52:44 GMT 20090709105244 Tue, 18 Aug 2009 16:42:13 GMT 200908181644213 Since the US stepped up its use of unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in Pakistan and Afghanistan in mid 2008, missile strikes by unpiloted drones have become increasingly controversial. The IISS goes behind the scenes with the USAF and RAF aircrews in Nevada who remotely operate the vehicles over Afghanistan, looks at the overall strategy governing UAVs deployment and discusses the heated debate surrounding their use. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-4/the-drones-of-war/ 26541 Wed, 27 Jan 2010 19:21:30 GMT 20100127192130 Fri, 08 May 2009 18:10:49 GMT 20090508181049 Wed, 27 Jan 2010 19:21:26 GMT 201001271972126 Rigged vote sharpens strategic challenge http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-7/a-new-approach-to-afghanistan/ 31193 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 10:52:43 GMT 20091023105243 Fri, 25 Sep 2009 15:40:51 GMT 20090925154051 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 10:52:39 GMT 2009102310105239 Tentative engagement with US sparks hopes of new era in relations http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-8/signs-of-myanmars-emergence-from-diplomatic-isolation/ 32127 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 16:25:08 GMT 20091026162508 Thu, 22 Oct 2009 15:40:41 GMT 20091022154041 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 16:25:03 GMT 200910261642503 Troubled period of lawlessness is hard to end http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-9/no-solutions-to-somalias-insecurity-in-sight/ 33106 Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:16:22 GMT 20091127151622 Mon, 23 Nov 2009 15:01:10 GMT 20091123150110 Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:16:18 GMT 200911271531618 Further tests needed to cement recent advances http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-1/irans-missile-development/page-2/ 23696 Tue, 22 Mar 2011 12:14:51 GMT 20110322121451 Tue, 03 Feb 2009 15:26:55 GMT 20090203152655 Tue, 22 Mar 2011 12:14:51 GMT 2011032212121451 UK trials reveal new types of networks http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-1/the-evolving-terrorist-threat/ 23734 Wed, 11 Feb 2009 18:25:10 GMT 20090211182510 Wed, 04 Feb 2009 10:37:31 GMT 20090204103731 Wed, 11 Feb 2009 18:25:09 GMT 200902111862509 UK trials reveal new types of networks http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-1/the-evolving-terrorist-threat/page-2/ 23735 Fri, 06 Mar 2009 14:06:22 GMT 20090306140622 Wed, 04 Feb 2009 10:37:33 GMT 20090204103733 Fri, 06 Mar 2009 14:06:21 GMT 200903061420621 Alliance views its future cautiously http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-2/natos-60th-birthday/page-2/ 24629 Thu, 12 Mar 2009 15:28:33 GMT 20090312152833 Wed, 04 Mar 2009 17:21:05 GMT 20090304172105 Thu, 12 Mar 2009 15:28:30 GMT 200903121532830 Gloomy outlook for Copenhagen http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-6/deadlock-on-climate-change/ 28640 Thu, 09 Jul 2009 10:55:00 GMT 20090709105500 Thu, 09 Jul 2009 10:52:43 GMT 20090709105243 Tue, 12 Jan 2010 17:39:14 GMT 201001121753914 But ArmeniaTurkey agreement faces challenges after 'football diplomacy' http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-9/breakthrough-in-the-south-caucasus/ 33109 Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:11:40 GMT 20091127151140 Mon, 23 Nov 2009 15:18:32 GMT 20091123151832 Fri, 27 Nov 2009 15:11:36 GMT 200911271531136 Financial crisis sparks change in global governance http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-9/g20-makes-its-mark/ 33112 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 18:42:07 GMT 20091125184207 Mon, 23 Nov 2009 15:33:42 GMT 20091123153342 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 18:41:57 GMT 200911251864157 Eastern European plans shelved as programme is refined http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-8/obamas-new-missile-defence-strategy/ 32130 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 16:50:17 GMT 20091026165017 Thu, 22 Oct 2009 16:24:21 GMT 20091022162421 Mon, 26 Oct 2009 16:50:13 GMT 200910261645013 Renewed concerns, but surprise deal offers potential path forward http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-8/the-iranian-nuclear-crisis/ 32149 Wed, 28 Oct 2009 11:27:52 GMT 20091028112752 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 10:47:17 GMT 20091023104717 Wed, 28 Oct 2009 11:27:48 GMT 2009102811112748 Anniversary parade reveals new strategic outlook http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-8/chinas-military-might-on-display/ 32152 Mon, 22 Feb 2010 11:44:03 GMT 20100222114403 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 11:06:19 GMT 20091023110619 Mon, 22 Feb 2010 11:43:58 GMT 2010022211114358 South Sudan's quest for independence http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-9/southern-sudans-quest-for-independence/ 33115 Thu, 25 Feb 2010 16:36:22 GMT 20100225163622 Mon, 23 Nov 2009 15:39:12 GMT 20091123153912 Thu, 25 Feb 2010 16:36:17 GMT 201002251643617 Perceived threat from Iran prompts new approaches http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-9/gulf-states-step-up-defences/ 33119 Mon, 19 Apr 2010 13:46:06 GMT 20100419134606 Mon, 23 Nov 2009 15:44:07 GMT 20091123154407 Mon, 19 Apr 2010 13:46:01 GMT 201004191314601 Cracks in Chinas minorities policy exposed http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-6/ethnic-strife-in-xinjiang/ 28642 Fri, 25 Sep 2009 15:54:19 GMT 20090925155419 Thu, 09 Jul 2009 11:04:17 GMT 20090709110417 Fri, 25 Sep 2009 15:54:15 GMT 200909251535415 New US approach to elusive Israeli-Palestininan solution http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-5/obama-tackles-mideast-peace/ 28179 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 10:14:21 GMT 20090622101421 Thu, 18 Jun 2009 12:12:26 GMT 20090618121226 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 10:14:18 GMT 2009062210101418 Tighter sanctions if diplomacy fails http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-5/what-now-for-obamas-iran-policy/ 28175 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 14:19:50 GMT 20090619141950 Thu, 18 Jun 2009 12:08:22 GMT 20090618120822 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 14:19:47 GMT 200906191421947 Extraordinary measures to restore stability Western governments have recently taken exceptional measures to prevent the disintegration of their financial systems following a collapse in banking confidence. Whether these will be sufficient to quell extreme turbulence in money and stock markets is not yet clear. Predictions that the crisis will herald the end of American-style capitalism seem exaggerated. However, signs of a major economic downturn resulting from the financial crisis are already evident. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-8/the-wests-financial-crisis/ 20437 Tue, 12 May 2009 15:37:35 GMT 20090512153735 Tue, 07 Oct 2008 15:30:13 GMT 20081007153013 Tue, 12 May 2009 15:37:33 GMT 200905121533733 No winners in Georgian conflict   The outbreak of war in Georgia has left no outright victors. While Moscow could claim to have won the military battle, it remains isolated on the world stage in its formal recognition of the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states. The South Ossetians have taken a step towards eventual reunification with North Ossetia, but Abkhazia may find itself more closely tied to Russia than it had been hoping. Georgia is certainly worse off after the brief confli http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/a-failure-of-strategy/ 20287 Fri, 16 Jan 2009 13:54:26 GMT 20090116135426 Thu, 02 Oct 2008 16:56:21 GMT 20081002165621 Fri, 16 Jan 2009 13:54:26 GMT 200901161315426 How the key events played out   From the moment Georgian forces launched an attack on the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, on 7 August to the day in early September when Russia agreed to promptly withdraw its troops from undisputed Georgian territory surrounding South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Strategic Comments provides a blow-by-blow guide to the conflict. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/a-chronology-of-the-crisis/ 20369 Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:55:30 GMT 20081119105530 Sun, 05 Oct 2008 14:52:39 GMT 20081005145239 Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:55:30 GMT 2008111910105530 The concerns of former Soviet states From Ukraine to Central Asia and in Azerbaijan's ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh shock waves from Russia's intervention in Georgia are still being felt. Moscow's actions signalled to its neighbours that it was ready to defend its interests by military means if necessary. It increasingly sees NATO enlargement and Western military presence in the region as 'red lines' not to be crossed, and, if they are, it is ready to respond assertively http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/anxious-neighbours/ 20373 Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:55:09 GMT 20081119105509 Sun, 05 Oct 2008 15:54:14 GMT 20081005155414 Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:55:09 GMT 2008111910105509 Risks heightened after war Georgia is the key transit country for Caspian oil and gas exports to the West, so war on its territory raised questions over Europes energy supplies. There are plans for the Nabucco project to expand the supply of Caspian and Central Asian gas to the Continent without going through Russia. However, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan are unwilling to alienate Moscow at a time when it is asserting its influence in the region. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/europes-energy-dependence/ 20376 Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:54:48 GMT 20081119105448 Sun, 05 Oct 2008 16:24:43 GMT 20081005162443 Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:54:48 GMT 2008111910105448 Short war shows lack of modern systems Russia's unexpectedly rapid military response to Georgia's moves on South Ossetia upset all of Georgia's key strategic calculations. However, the campaign also revealed Russian military weaknesses. Its forces are equipped with outmoded weapons and victory appears to have been won largely as a result of the Georgian armys collapse. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/russias-rapid-reaction/ 20377 Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:54:25 GMT 20081119105425 Sun, 05 Oct 2008 16:32:51 GMT 20081005163251 Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:54:25 GMT 2008111910105425 Key quotes from the crisis Key quotes from people involved in the crisis provide a flavour of the diplomatic, and the not-so-diplomatic, encounters that ran alongside the military action in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/georgia-the-war-in-words/ 20378 Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:54:01 GMT 20081119105401 Sun, 05 Oct 2008 16:36:24 GMT 20081005163624 Wed, 19 Nov 2008 10:54:01 GMT 2008111910105401 Global financial woes could trigger further unrest http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-9/the-simmering-food-crisis/ 21345 Sun, 16 Nov 2008 00:00:00 GMT 20081116000000 Sun, 16 Nov 2008 13:38:26 GMT 20081116133826 Mon, 28 Feb 2011 18:26:27 GMT 201102281862627 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-9/breakthrough-in-the-south-caucasus/page-2/ 33110 Thu, 07 Oct 2010 14:00:54 GMT 20101007140054 Mon, 23 Nov 2009 15:18:32 GMT 20091123151832 Thu, 07 Oct 2010 14:00:53 GMT 201010071420053 Better prospects for a global deal - whoever wins http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-8/climate-change-and-the-us-election/ 20440 Tue, 12 Jan 2010 17:49:50 GMT 20100112174950 Tue, 07 Oct 2008 15:30:14 GMT 20081007153014 Tue, 12 Jan 2010 17:49:46 GMT 201001121754946 Threefold crisis rocks country's foundations http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-9/pakistan-on-the-brink/ 21337 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 15:55:09 GMT 20081211155509 Sun, 16 Nov 2008 13:38:22 GMT 20081116133822 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 15:55:09 GMT 200812111535509 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-9/the-simmering-food-crisis/page-2/ 21346 Thu, 20 Nov 2008 13:38:05 GMT 20081120133805 Sun, 16 Nov 2008 13:38:27 GMT 20081116133827 Thu, 20 Nov 2008 13:38:05 GMT 200811201313805 Extraordinary measures to restore stability http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-8/the-wests-financial-crisis/page-3/ 20555 Thu, 04 Dec 2008 10:26:20 GMT 20081204102620 Fri, 10 Oct 2008 16:47:13 GMT 20081010164713 Thu, 04 Dec 2008 10:26:20 GMT 2008120410102620 Threefold crisis rocks country's foundations http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-9/pakistan-on-the-brink/page-2/ 21338 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 15:48:23 GMT 20081211154823 Sun, 16 Nov 2008 13:38:23 GMT 20081116133823 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 15:48:23 GMT 200812111534823 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-10/can-obama-re-engage-iran/page-2/ 22077 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 00:00:00 GMT 20081211000000 Fri, 05 Dec 2008 11:20:17 GMT 20081205112017 Wed, 10 Dec 2008 16:31:07 GMT 200812101643107 Prospects for new approach on nuclear issue http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-10/can-obama-re-engage-iran/ 22076 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 00:00:00 GMT 20081211000000 Fri, 05 Dec 2008 11:20:16 GMT 20081205112016 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 14:26:35 GMT 200812111422635 Threefold crisis rocks country's foundations Attacks raise intelligence, security and political questions http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-10/terror-in-mumbai/page-2/ 22070 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 15:57:30 GMT 20081211155730 Fri, 05 Dec 2008 11:20:13 GMT 20081205112013 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 15:57:30 GMT 200812111535730 Attacks raise intelligence, security and political questions http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-10/terror-in-mumbai/ 22069 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 00:00:00 GMT 20081211000000 Fri, 05 Dec 2008 11:20:13 GMT 20081205112013 Fri, 12 Dec 2008 11:37:28 GMT 2008121211113728 Attacks raise intelligence, security and political questions http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-10/terror-in-mumbai/page-3/ 22393 Tue, 27 Jan 2009 16:57:03 GMT 20090127165703 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 15:34:29 GMT 20081211153429 Tue, 27 Jan 2009 16:57:03 GMT 200901271645703 Kim's ill-health adds to pressures on regime http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-10/north-korea-digs-in/ 22082 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 00:00:00 GMT 20081211000000 Fri, 05 Dec 2008 11:20:19 GMT 20081205112019 Wed, 25 Mar 2009 17:26:58 GMT 200903251752658 Gates seeks tighter focus on current conflicts   In his first 19 months as US secretary of defense, Robert Gates has sacked some of the highest-ranking generals and service secretaries in the US military, forced others to resign or failed to renominate them. These personnel changes were sparked by different incidents. However, together they demonstrate Gates's desire to have the Pentagon focus more on the two wars at hand Iraq and Afghanistan rather than gazing into the distant future. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-6/all-change-at-the-pentagon/ 19003 Wed, 27 Aug 2008 11:14:51 GMT 20080827111451 Mon, 04 Aug 2008 11:38:35 GMT 20080804113835 Wed, 27 Aug 2008 11:14:51 GMT 2008082711111451 No winners in Georgian conflict   The outbreak of war in Georgia has left no outright victors. While Moscow could claim to have won the military battle, it remains isolated on the world stage in its formal recognition of the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states. The South Ossetians have taken a step towards eventual reunification with North Ossetia, but Abkhazia may find itself more closely tied to Russia than it had been hoping. Georgia is certainly worse off after the brief confli http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/a-failure-of-strategy/-page-2/-page-3/ 20335 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 15:04:45 GMT 20081117150445 Fri, 03 Oct 2008 18:16:56 GMT 20081003181656 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 15:04:45 GMT 200811171530445 Extraordinary measures to restore stability http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-8/the-wests-financial-crisis/page-2/ 20438 Fri, 10 Oct 2008 18:34:33 GMT 20081010183433 Tue, 07 Oct 2008 15:30:14 GMT 20081007153014 Fri, 10 Oct 2008 18:34:33 GMT 200810101863433 No winners in Georgian conflict   The outbreak of war in Georgia has left no outright victors. While Moscow could claim to have won the military battle, it remains isolated on the world stage in its formal recognition of the regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia as independent states. The South Ossetians have taken a step towards eventual reunification with North Ossetia, but Abkhazia may find itself more closely tied to Russia than it had been hoping. Georgia is certainly worse off after the brief confli http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/a-failure-of-strategy/-page-2/ 20334 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 15:03:50 GMT 20081117150350 Fri, 03 Oct 2008 18:00:24 GMT 20081003180024 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 15:03:50 GMT 200811171530350 How the major events played out From the moment Georgian forces launched an attack on the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, on 7 August to the day in early September when Russia agreed to promptly withdraw its troops from undisputed Georgian territory surrounding South Ossetia and Abkhazia, Strategic Comments provides a blow-by-blow guide to the conflict. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/a-chronology-of-the-crisis/page-2/ 20372 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 15:06:49 GMT 20081117150649 Sun, 05 Oct 2008 15:19:54 GMT 20081005151954 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 15:06:49 GMT 200811171530649 The concerns of former Soviet states From Ukraine to Central Asia and in Azerbaijan's ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh shock waves from Russia's intervention in Georgia are still being felt. Moscow's actions signalled to its neighbours that it was ready to defend its interests by military means if necessary. It increasingly sees NATO enlargement and Western military presence in the region as 'red lines' not to be crossed, and, if they are, it is ready to respond assertively http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/anxious-neighbours/page-2/ 20374 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:07:15 GMT 20081117170715 Sun, 05 Oct 2008 16:00:59 GMT 20081005160059 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:07:15 GMT 200811171750715 The concerns of former Soviet states From Ukraine to Central Asia and in Azerbaijan's ethnic Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh shock waves from Russia's intervention in Georgia are still being felt. Moscow's actions signalled to its neighbours that it was ready to defend its interests by military means if necessary. It increasingly sees NATO enlargement and Western military presence in the region as 'red lines' not to be crossed, and, if they are, it is ready to respond assertively http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/anxious-neighbours/page-3/ 20375 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:08:03 GMT 20081117170803 Sun, 05 Oct 2008 16:22:01 GMT 20081005162201 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:08:03 GMT 200811171750803 Key quotes from the crisis Key quotes from people involved in the crisis provide a flavour of the diplomatic, and the not-so-diplomatic, encounters that ran alongside the military action in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/georgia-the-war-in-words/page-2/ 20407 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:09:02 GMT 20081117170902 Mon, 06 Oct 2008 17:23:55 GMT 20081006172355 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:09:02 GMT 200811171750902 Key quotes from the crisis Key quotes from people involved in the crisis provide a flavour of the diplomatic, and the not-so-diplomatic, encounters that ran alongside the military action in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/georgia-the-war-in-words/page-3/ 20417 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:09:48 GMT 20081117170948 Mon, 06 Oct 2008 17:47:57 GMT 20081006174757 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:09:48 GMT 200811171750948 Short war shows lack of modern systems Russia's unexpectedly rapid military response to Georgia's moves on South Ossetia upset all of Georgia's key strategic calculations. However, the campaign also revealed Russian military weaknesses. Its forces are equipped with outmoded weapons and victory appears to have been won largely as a result of the Georgian armys collapse. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/russias-rapid-reaction/page-2/ 20379 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:11:36 GMT 20081117171136 Sun, 05 Oct 2008 16:42:37 GMT 20081005164237 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:11:36 GMT 200811171751136 Short war shows lack of modern systems Russia's unexpectedly rapid military response to Georgia's moves on South Ossetia upset all of Georgia's key strategic calculations. However, the campaign also revealed Russian military weaknesses. Its forces are equipped with outmoded weapons and victory appears to have been won largely as a result of the Georgian armys collapse. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/russias-rapid-reaction/page-3/ 20380 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:12:23 GMT 20081117171223 Sun, 05 Oct 2008 16:44:23 GMT 20081005164423 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:12:23 GMT 200811171751223 As well as military action, police reforms are needed http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-8/spiralling-drug-violence-in-mexico/ 20444 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:14:34 GMT 20081117171434 Tue, 07 Oct 2008 15:30:16 GMT 20081007153016 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:14:34 GMT 200811171751434 Besides military action, police reforms are needed http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-8/spiralling-drug-violence-in-mexico/page-3/ 20446 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:23:48 GMT 20081117172348 Tue, 07 Oct 2008 15:30:17 GMT 20081007153017 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:23:48 GMT 200811171752348 Better prospects for a global deal - whoever wins http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-8/climate-change-and-the-us-election/page-2/ 20561 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:31:39 GMT 20081117173139 Fri, 10 Oct 2008 17:45:34 GMT 20081010174534 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:31:39 GMT 200811171753139 Key quotes from the crisis Key quotes from people involved in the crisis provide a flavour of the diplomatic, and the not-so-diplomatic, encounters that ran alongside the military action in South Ossetia and Abkhazia. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-7/georgia-the-war-in-words/page-4/ 20434 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:37:52 GMT 20081117173752 Tue, 07 Oct 2008 14:33:04 GMT 20081007143304 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:37:52 GMT 200811171753752 Better prospects for a global deal - whoever wins http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-8/climate-change-and-the-us-election/page-3/ 20562 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:52:12 GMT 20081117175212 Fri, 10 Oct 2008 17:56:15 GMT 20081010175615 Mon, 17 Nov 2008 17:52:12 GMT 200811171755212 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-5/what-now-for-obamas-iran-policy/page-2/ 28176 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 17:07:09 GMT 20090619170709 Thu, 18 Jun 2009 12:08:22 GMT 20090618120822 Fri, 19 Jun 2009 17:07:06 GMT 200906191750706 New US approach to elusive Israeli-Palestinian solution http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-5/obama-tackles-mideast-peace/page-2/ 28180 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 15:39:51 GMT 20090622153951 Thu, 18 Jun 2009 12:12:27 GMT 20090618121227 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 15:39:47 GMT 200906221533947 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-5/what-now-for-obamas-iran-policy/page-3/ 28177 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 15:00:41 GMT 20090622150041 Thu, 18 Jun 2009 12:08:23 GMT 20090618120823 Mon, 22 Jun 2009 15:00:37 GMT 200906221530037 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-10/north-korea-digs-in/page-2/ 22083 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 00:00:00 GMT 20081211000000 Fri, 05 Dec 2008 11:20:19 GMT 20081205112019 Tue, 18 Aug 2009 11:48:18 GMT 2009081811114818 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-7/a-new-approach-to-afghanistan/page-2/ 31200 Mon, 28 Sep 2009 16:07:36 GMT 20090928160736 Fri, 25 Sep 2009 16:04:41 GMT 20090925160441 Mon, 28 Sep 2009 16:07:32 GMT 200909281640732 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-6/ethnic-strife-in-xinjiang/page-3/ 29843 Wed, 19 Aug 2009 10:43:50 GMT 20090819104350 Wed, 19 Aug 2009 10:31:51 GMT 20090819103151 Wed, 19 Aug 2009 10:43:47 GMT 2009081910104347 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-6/ethnic-strife-in-xinjiang/page-2/ 28643 Wed, 19 Aug 2009 11:27:54 GMT 20090819112754 Thu, 09 Jul 2009 11:04:18 GMT 20090709110418 Wed, 19 Aug 2009 11:27:50 GMT 2009081911112750 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-9/gulf-states-step-up-defences/page-2/ 33120 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 18:40:03 GMT 20091125184003 Mon, 23 Nov 2009 15:44:08 GMT 20091123154408 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 18:39:59 GMT 200911251863959 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-8/chinas-military-might-on-display/page-2/ 32153 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 11:22:08 GMT 20091023112208 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 11:06:20 GMT 20091023110620 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 11:22:05 GMT 2009102311112205 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-8/obamas-new-missile-defence-strategy/page-2/ 32131 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 12:18:45 GMT 20091023121845 Thu, 22 Oct 2009 16:24:22 GMT 20091022162422 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 12:18:41 GMT 2009102312121841 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-8/signs-of-myanmars-emergence-from-diplomatic-isolation/page-2/ 32145 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:03:23 GMT 20091023140323 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 10:11:30 GMT 20091023101130 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 14:03:20 GMT 200910231420320 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-8/the-iranian-nuclear-crisis/page-2/ 32150 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 16:41:32 GMT 20091023164132 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 10:47:18 GMT 20091023104718 Fri, 23 Oct 2009 16:41:28 GMT 200910231644128 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-9/g20-makes-its-mark/page-2/ 33113 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 19:05:21 GMT 20091125190521 Mon, 23 Nov 2009 15:33:45 GMT 20091123153345 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 19:05:17 GMT 200911251970517 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-9/no-solutions-to-somalias-insecurity-in-sight/page-2/ 33108 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 19:18:47 GMT 20091125191847 Mon, 23 Nov 2009 15:09:18 GMT 20091123150918 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 19:18:44 GMT 200911251971844 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-9/southern-sudans-quest-for-independence/page-2/ 33116 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 19:22:31 GMT 20091125192231 Mon, 23 Nov 2009 15:39:12 GMT 20091123153912 Wed, 25 Nov 2009 19:22:27 GMT 200911251972227 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-10/new-impetus-for-nuclear-security/page-2/ 34213 Thu, 17 Dec 2009 13:50:06 GMT 20091217135006 Wed, 16 Dec 2009 10:09:30 GMT 20091216100930 Thu, 17 Dec 2009 13:50:02 GMT 200912171315002 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-10/obamas-war-in-afghanistan/page-2/ 34190 Thu, 17 Dec 2009 14:47:24 GMT 20091217144724 Tue, 15 Dec 2009 17:36:37 GMT 20091215173637 Thu, 17 Dec 2009 14:47:20 GMT 200912171424720 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-10/recovering-iraqi-sovereignty/page-2/ 34207 Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:19:57 GMT 20091217151957 Wed, 16 Dec 2009 10:03:58 GMT 20091216100358 Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:19:53 GMT 200912171531953 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-10/a-new-strategic-concept-for-nato/page-2/ 34209 Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:36:55 GMT 20091217153655 Wed, 16 Dec 2009 10:06:29 GMT 20091216100629 Thu, 17 Dec 2009 15:36:52 GMT 200912171533652 http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-15-2009/volume-15-issue-10/building-global-food-security/page-2/ 34215 Thu, 17 Dec 2009 16:40:27 GMT 20091217164027 Wed, 16 Dec 2009 10:11:50 GMT 20091216101150 Thu, 17 Dec 2009 16:40:23 GMT 200912171644023 Russia's failing North Caucasus strategy The small Russian republic of Ingushetia, neighbouring Chechnya in the North Caucasus, has been plagued by a massive upsurge in violence in the past year. Civic activists are unhappy with Kremlin-appointed local president Murat Zyazikov, who has been accused of corruption and ineptitude. There is also a small Islamic insurgency engaged in attacks and criminal activities. However, the heavy-handed response by Russian federal forces has only fuelled discontent. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-6/insurgency-in-ingushetia/ 19006 Thu, 12 Feb 2009 12:07:34 GMT 20090212120734 Mon, 04 Aug 2008 11:38:36 GMT 20080804113836 Thu, 12 Feb 2009 12:07:33 GMT 2009021212120733 Volume 13, Issue 3 of Strategic Comments, the Institute's online journal has been published. The first article Iran's nuclear programme is free to all readers, with the remaining four articles: British defence policy, Russian foreign policy, An OPEC for gas? and US missile defence are accessible to IISS members or Strategic Comments subscribers. A pay-per-view facility is also available. The charge for each article is £5. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-13-2007/volume-13-issue-3/ 6983 Wed, 13 May 2009 13:08:52 GMT 20090513130852 Mon, 30 Apr 2007 18:32:26 GMT 20070430183226 Wed, 13 May 2009 13:08:49 GMT 200905131310849 The UNSCOM experience in Iraq http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-3---1997/volume-3---issue-1/challenges-facing-verification/ 3483 Mon, 30 Jan 2006 12:08:18 GMT 20060130120818 Tue, 02 Aug 2005 13:37:04 GMT 20050802133704 Mon, 30 Jan 2006 12:08:18 GMT 2006013012120818 Patterns of power On 6 December in Bonn, Afghan factions agreed to form an Interim Administration (IA) to govern the country in its initial post-Taliban phase. The Bonn Agreement reached under UN auspices specifies three stages in re-establishing a unified and, it is hoped, peaceful state. Firstly, that the IA should assume authority in Kabul on 22 December 2001, simultaneously taking over the country's seat at the UN a position currently held in a caretaker capacity by... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7-2001/volume-7---issue-10/post-taliban-afghanistan/ 3653 Wed, 23 Nov 2005 11:09:32 GMT 20051123110932 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Wed, 23 Nov 2005 11:09:32 GMT 2005112311110932 What kind of future? http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8-2002/volume-8---issue-10/nato-after-the-prague-summit/ 3703 Tue, 22 Nov 2005 12:27:38 GMT 20051122122738 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Tue, 22 Nov 2005 12:27:38 GMT 2005112212122738 Principles and practicalities The last decade has seen a dramatic change in the rhetoric of German foreign policy. During the 1990-91 Gulf War, Germany fretting on the sidelines contributed only funding to the coalition war effort. Long disparaged as economically powerful, yet politically diffident and militarily timid, Germany now says it is willing to expand the military component of its foreign policy. After the events of 11 September, German leaders were among the first to... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7-2001/volume-7---issue-9/germanys-new-foreign-policy/ 3658 Wed, 23 Nov 2005 11:31:55 GMT 20051123113155 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Wed, 23 Nov 2005 11:31:55 GMT 2005112311113155 Calibrating the response Following the devastating 11 September terrorist attacks on New York and Washington DC, the US and key allies are focused on how to combat al-Qaeda, the network allegedly responsible for the atrocities, and similar organisations. In the first week of October, major forces were being deployed by the US in and around the Middle East, while US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld toured the Gulf region to build political support. NATO officials accepted the validity of what... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7-2001/volume-7---issue-8/the-aftermath-of-11-september/ 3663 Wed, 23 Nov 2005 11:48:46 GMT 20051123114846 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Wed, 23 Nov 2005 11:48:46 GMT 2005112311114846 King Abdullah Tested The effects of the second Palestinian intifada have spread beyond Israel's borders. Jordan too has struggled to contain the political and security ramifications of the ten months of violent protests. In July alone, Jordan postponed parliamentary elections and had to grapple with an embarrassing diplomatic incident with Qatar over the fate of a senior Hamas politician. All of this is happening when Jordan no longer has the experienced King Hussein at its helm. The strategic... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7-2001/volume-7---issue-7/jordans-predicaments/ 3668 Wed, 23 Nov 2005 12:13:48 GMT 20051123121348 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Wed, 23 Nov 2005 12:13:48 GMT 2005112312121348 Russia's military satellites Status and prospects Russia's military satellite programme has diminished greatly since the break-up of the Soviet Union. During the 1980s, the Soviet space programme typically made 90-100 launch attempts annually, the majority being dedicated military satellites. The rate has since dropped by more than half, with military payloads in the minority: during 2000, just seven of 39 launches had primarily military payloads. Although budgets started to decline in the... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7-2001/volume-7---issue-6/russias-military-satellites/ 3673 Tue, 01 Nov 2005 11:19:55 GMT 20051101111955 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Tue, 01 Nov 2005 11:19:55 GMT 2005110111111955 Cruise Missile Proliferation Meeting a growing threat As international debate rages over US plans to deploy defences to protect not only the US homeland but also US forces, allies and friends around the globe against ballistic missile attack, it is becoming clear that such attacks are not the only kind of missile threat with which policy-makers must contend. Proliferation of land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs), which pose enormous challenges to air defence systems and can be used to great... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7-2001/volume-7---issue-5/cruise-missile-proliferation/ 3678 Tue, 01 Nov 2005 12:04:30 GMT 20051101120430 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Tue, 01 Nov 2005 12:04:30 GMT 2005110112120430 Free trade in the Americas Stumbling blocks to trade blocs Heads of state from 34 Western Hemisphere countries have injected new political momentum into attempts to create a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). At the Third Summit of the Americas, held on 20-22 April in Quebec City, Canada, leaders agreed to conclude negotiations on an FTAA by 1 January, 2005. Comprising 800 million consumers and accounting for over one-third of global economic output, the FTAA would constitute the world's... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7-2001/volume-7---issue-4/free-trade-in-the-americas/ 3683 Tue, 01 Nov 2005 12:29:22 GMT 20051101122922 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Tue, 01 Nov 2005 12:29:22 GMT 2005110112122922 Indonesia's leadership crisis Would Megawati do better than Wahid? Since his election as Indonesia's president in October 1999, Abdurrahman Wahid has faced huge challenges. He and his unstable coalition government have needed not only to revive the country's economy, but also to bring the armed forces under more effective civilian control while managing the centre-periphery tensions that have increasingly appeared to threaten national cohesion. Another important task has been to prosecute those... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7-2001/volume-7---issue-3/indonesias-leadership-crisis/ 3688 Tue, 01 Nov 2005 12:53:22 GMT 20051101125322 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Tue, 01 Nov 2005 12:53:22 GMT 2005110112125322 The future of Montenegro Prospects for independence If President Milo Djukanovic of Montenegro has his way there will soon be two new states in Europe: Montenegro and Serbia. At present they remain linked within the Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, which was founded in 1992, following the bloody collapse of the old six-republic federation. Open opposition from European Union countries and the United States to Montenegro's independence drive is unlikely to prevent its success. The coming weeks... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7-2001/volume-7---issue-2/the-future-of-montenegro/ 3693 Tue, 01 Nov 2005 14:15:55 GMT 20051101141555 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Tue, 01 Nov 2005 14:15:55 GMT 200511011421555 Colombia's war on drugs Disputing the plan Concerns are mounting in Colombia and neighbouring countries that regional violence could escalate as US-trained troops push into the southern province of Putumayo to curb narcotics production. Within the incoming US administration of George W. Bush there is strong support for the $7.5 billion Plan Colombia aimed at eradicating the drug business and boosting Colombia's economic and social development. But the international community is divided over its... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7-2001/volume-7---issue-1/colombias-war-on-drugs/ 3698 Tue, 01 Nov 2005 14:54:46 GMT 20051101145446 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Tue, 01 Nov 2005 14:54:46 GMT 200511011425446 Limited options for a solution Pyongyang's admission that it has a clandestine nuclear programme in violation of its treaty obligations has significantly increased tensions in and around the Korean Peninsula, and presented Washington and its regional allies with a major policy dilemma. While all sides are working towards a diplomatic solution, the dynamics of the dispute leave room for a potentially dangerous escalation. A surprising admission On 4 October 2002, US Assistant Secretary for East... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8-2002/volume-8---issue-9/north-korean-nuclear-tensions/ 3708 Tue, 22 Nov 2005 12:34:18 GMT 20051122123418 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Tue, 22 Nov 2005 12:34:18 GMT 2005112212123418 China's ambitions in Myanmar India steps up countermoves While Myanmar remains shunned by the West, the country's two giant neighbours, India and China, are jockeying for influence in Yangon. Since the beginning of the year, India's army chief General Ved Prakash Malik has made two trips to Myanmar and his Burmese counterpart General Maung Aye has visited both India and China. These top-level exchanges have highlighted Myanmar's importance in the strategic competition between Beijing and New... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-6/chinas-ambitions-in-myanmar/ 3773 Wed, 02 Nov 2005 11:21:13 GMT 20051102112113 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Wed, 02 Nov 2005 11:21:13 GMT 2005110211112113 After the Korean summit Can the Koreas do business? Although political and military issues divide the two Koreas, both sides are hoping that business will bring them together. Economic links, facilitated by South Korean President Kim Dae Jung's 'sunshine' policy toward the North, have been expanding in recent years, despite intractable differences over politics and security. But North Korea will need to guarantee security if any rise in South Korean aid and investment in the North arising from... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-5/after-the-korean-summit/ 3778 Mon, 30 Jan 2006 12:16:22 GMT 20060130121622 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Mon, 30 Jan 2006 12:16:22 GMT 2006013012121622 Diamonds and conflict Strategies for control International efforts to curb the trade in diamonds from conflict areas are likely to gain momentum as fighting for control of diamond mines in countries such as Sierra Leone, Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo focuses increasing attention on the problem. Foreign Ministers of the Group of Eight (G-8) countries are likely to endorse new initiatives at a meeting in Japan shortly before the organisation's July summit. But any measures they... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-4/diamonds-and-conflict/ 3783 Wed, 02 Nov 2005 12:23:36 GMT 20051102122336 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Wed, 02 Nov 2005 12:23:36 GMT 2005110212122336 Stuck in the Lebanese 'mud' Israel's withdrawal from South Lebanon A unilateral withdrawal of Israeli troops from south Lebanon seems likely following the failure of the Geneva summit peace negotiations between US President Bill Clinton and Syrian President Hafez al-Assad on 26 March. The presence of the Israel Defence Force (IDF) in what Israelis disdainfully call the Lebanese mud' is increasingly unpopular domestically, due to a constant toll of casualties inflicted by resistance groups... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-3/stuck-in-the-lebanese-mud/ 3788 Wed, 02 Nov 2005 12:38:51 GMT 20051102123851 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Wed, 02 Nov 2005 12:38:51 GMT 2005110212123851 Towards crisis with Beijing? Taiwan's presidential elections on 18 March 2000 will mark a crucial stage in the island's political development and its relations with China. The polls could pave the way for a further relaxation of Taipei's restrictions on economic and transport links with the mainland. However, they are also fuelling China's anxieties about Taiwan's aspirations to become an internationally recognised sovereign state. Whoever wins, there is little likelihood that Beijing will... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-2/taiwans-presidential-elections/ 3794 Wed, 02 Nov 2005 13:20:21 GMT 20051102132021 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Wed, 02 Nov 2005 13:20:21 GMT 200511021312021 Towards authoritarian reform? Boris Yeltsin's resignation as Russian president on New Year's Eve 1999 left his designated successor, transitional President Vladimir Putin, as the overwhelming favourite to win presidential elections scheduled for 26 March 2000. In this case, the extensive powers of the Russian presidency, which have largely lain dormant in Yeltsin's feeble grip, will be assumed by a vigorous and ruthless 47-year-old former KGB agent. As prime minister and presumptive successor,... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-1/the-putin-regime-in-russia/ 3798 Wed, 02 Nov 2005 13:28:35 GMT 20051102132835 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Wed, 02 Nov 2005 13:28:35 GMT 200511021312835 Terror in TurkeyOn 19 December, Turkish authorities announced that they had seized a key suspect in connection with a series of suicide bombings over the previous month. The domestic and international public pressure to produce results and bring the perpetrators of the Istanbul bombings to justice will force the Turkish security apparatus to intensify its operations against radical Islamists. Even if these operations are poorly coordinated and result in the capture of militants close to -... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-9-2003/volume-9---issue-10/ 3310 Wed, 15 Feb 2006 14:14:20 GMT 20060215141420 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Wed, 15 Feb 2006 14:14:20 GMT 200602151421420 The problem of intelligence-gathering On 19 December, Turkish authorities announced that they had seized a key suspect in connection with a series of suicide bombings over the previous month. On the morning of Saturday 15 November 2003, two pick-up trucks driven by Islamist suicide bombers exploded within 15 minutes of each other outside two Istanbul synagogues, while 20 November saw Istanbul hit by two more suicide truck bombs, which exploded outside the British Consulate-General and the... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-9-2003/volume-9---issue-10/terror-in-turkey/ 3803 Mon, 21 Nov 2005 14:14:59 GMT 20051121141459 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Mon, 21 Nov 2005 14:14:59 GMT 200511211421459 The dilemmas of transition One of the Bush administrations most important legacies to date has been its decision to lead the transition from the traditional offence-dominant nuclear regime towards a new mix of offensive and defensive forces. Even before the Bush administration took office, strategic opinion in the United States was coalescing around the view that deterrence by punishment was increasingly insufficient for assuring national security in the post-Cold War era. Accordingly,... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-10-2004/volume-10---issue-6/the-impact-of-missile-defence-in-asia/ 3898 Mon, 21 Nov 2005 13:50:18 GMT 20051121135018 Thu, 11 Aug 2005 10:23:15 GMT 20050811102315 Mon, 21 Nov 2005 13:50:18 GMT 200511211315018 Purposes and prospects After decades of relative quiescence bordering on inertia, American defence strategy in East Asia and the bilateral security alliances that have long underpinned this strategy are on the cusp of far-reaching change. For the first time since the early 1990s, major American military units were withdrawn from the Korean Peninsula in 2004, with an additional third of the remaining forces scheduled to depart between now and the end of 2008. In Japan, increased integration of... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-11-2005/volume-11---issue-3/americas-alliances-in-east-asia/ 3950 Mon, 14 Nov 2005 16:38:36 GMT 20051114163836 Thu, 11 Aug 2005 13:36:54 GMT 20050811133654 Mon, 14 Nov 2005 16:38:36 GMT 200511141643836 Improved local security but political challengesThe Baghdad Security Plan or surge that began in mid-February 2007 will reach its peak in terms of troop deployments by June, with the number of US soldiers in Iraq topping 160,000. General David Petraeus, commander of multinational forces in Iraq and the man responsible for implementing the plan, has repeatedly stated that success will need to be measured in the political and not the military arena. Overall, victory or defeat will... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-13-2007/volume-13-issue-4/the-baghdad-surge/ 7313 Thu, 28 Jun 2007 15:58:01 GMT 20070628155801 Thu, 24 May 2007 18:07:11 GMT 20070524180711 Thu, 28 Jun 2007 15:58:01 GMT 200706281535801 Fundamental shift in Palestinian politics In four days in mid-June 2007 the Executive Force of the Islamist Resistance Movement (Hamas) seized control of the entire Gaza Strip, sweeping away key security services and the allied clan militia loyal to its mainstream nationalist rival Fatah. Palestinian Authority (PA) President Mahmoud Abbas and Fatah, echoed by Western governments and the government of Israel, did not delay in branding it a well-planned military coup. Abbas... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-13-2007/volume-13-issue-5/hamas-coup-in-gaza/ 7638 Wed, 27 Jun 2007 11:12:09 GMT 20070627111209 Wed, 27 Jun 2007 10:46:37 GMT 20070627104637 Wed, 27 Jun 2007 11:12:09 GMT 2007062711111209 The EU moves on The European Union has taken an important step towards resolving the impasse into which it had sunk two years ago when proposals for institutional reforms, cast as a Constitutional Treaty, were rejected by voters in France and the Netherlands. Its members have struck a new deal on reform that will allow the EU to operate more effectively both internally and internationally. The accord it has also cleared the ground for a deeper political debate about the future role and nature... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-13-2007/volume-13-issue-6/reforming-europe/ 7755 Fri, 03 Aug 2007 11:14:15 GMT 20070803111415 Fri, 03 Aug 2007 10:47:51 GMT 20070803104751 Fri, 03 Aug 2007 11:14:15 GMT 2007080311111415 US and Israeli options Although Iraq probably possesses only a small fraction of the longer-range al-Hussein ballistic missiles it had in 1991, the relatively few missiles still in Iraqi hands can be primitively armed with chemical and biological weapons (CBW). In 1991, Iraqi forces were pre-delegated with the authority to launch missiles only if nuclear weapons were used against the regime or Baghdad was threatened. With regime-change a declared US goal this time around, however, Saddam may be... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8-2002/volume-8---issue-8/defending-against-iraqi-missiles/ 3713 Tue, 22 Nov 2005 12:46:06 GMT 20051122124606 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Tue, 22 Nov 2005 12:46:06 GMT 2005112212124606 Down, but far from out US-led military action in Afghanistan and the continuing allied military presence in that country both in response to the 11 September 2001 attacks have released the Taliban's grip on power. They have also deprived al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, his inner circle and hundreds of rank-and-file al-Qaeda members of a friendly host, a recruiting 'magnet' and a relatively comfortable physical base of operations. The military campaign killed some leaders, such... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8-2002/volume-8---issue-7/al-qaeda-one-year-on/ 3718 Tue, 22 Nov 2005 13:05:05 GMT 20051122130505 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Tue, 22 Nov 2005 13:05:05 GMT 200511221310505 Descending into the quagmire? Since the ouster of the Taliban regime, US policymakers have feared becoming bogged down in Afghanistan. This has locked them into a fixed approach, supporting a Northern Alliance (NA)-dominated central government and buying the cooperation of provincial warlords. However, ironically, the danger of being bogged down is rising owing to the failure of the US to show the tactical agility required to shape the political-military situation in a way that would encourage... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8-2002/volume-8---issue-6/americas-afghan-imbroglio/ 3723 Wed, 23 Nov 2005 09:54:38 GMT 20051123095438 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Wed, 23 Nov 2005 09:54:38 GMT 200511230995438 The US and the 'perilous crossroads' The incoming Bush administration identified the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and ballistic missiles to 'rogue states' as the most urgent security threat facing the US and advocated missile defence as the centrepiece of its response. In reaction to critics who argued that the more likely threat came from terrorists armed with 'suitcase bombs', rather than rogue states armed with missiles, the administration responded that it was... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8-2002/volume-8---issue-5/dealing-with-the-axis-of-evil/ 3732 Tue, 22 Nov 2005 13:36:27 GMT 20051122133627 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Tue, 22 Nov 2005 13:36:27 GMT 200511221313627 The quagmire of political reconstruction Current speculation over possible US military intervention to overthrow Iraqi President Saddam Hussein suggests that 'regime change' in Baghdad is more likely to be brought about in the near future by external intervention than by internal conspiracy. It is worth considering, therefore, what might follow from such action. Much that may occur in the wake of military action cannot be predicted. However, given the enormous problems associated with any... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8-2002/volume-8---issue-4/iraq-after-saddam/ 3733 Wed, 23 Nov 2005 10:01:23 GMT 20051123100123 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Wed, 23 Nov 2005 10:01:23 GMT 2005112310100123 Which tactics and what force? Washington has made clear its desire for 'regime change' in Iraq, seeing Saddam Hussein's removal as the way to reduce Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) threats from Iraq. US efforts to garner support for military action have achieved little success to date, with key Middle Eastern and European states urging Washington to focus on the more immediate problem of the IsraeliPalestinian dispute. The diplomatic complexities surrounding US plans for action are... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8-2002/volume-8---issue-3/military-options-towards-iraq/ 3738 Wed, 23 Nov 2005 10:08:54 GMT 20051123100854 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Wed, 23 Nov 2005 10:08:54 GMT 2005112310100854 Indias communal clashesThe HinduMuslim violence that has followed late Februarys massacre by local Muslims of Hindu pilgrims passing through Godhra has so far remained largely confined to Gujarat state. Although at least 500 people had died as of early March, the violence has been smaller in scale than that which followed the destruction of the Ayodhya mosque by Hindu-nationalists in 1992. Then, nation-wide carnage left 3,000 dead. Still, the consequences of Godhra may be... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8-2002/volume-8---issue-2/ 3321 Wed, 15 Feb 2006 15:13:53 GMT 20060215151353 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Wed, 15 Feb 2006 15:13:53 GMT 200602151531353 Consequences beyond religion The HinduMuslim violence that has followed late February's massacre by local Muslims of Hindu pilgrims passing through Godhra has so far remained largely confined to Gujarat state. Although at least 500 people had died as of early March, the violence has been smaller in scale than that which followed the destruction of the Ayodhya mosque by Hindu-nationalists in 1992. Then, nation-wide carnage left 3,000 dead. Still, the consequences of Godhra may well be... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8-2002/volume-8---issue-2/indias-communal-clashes/ 3743 Wed, 23 Nov 2005 10:20:30 GMT 20051123102030 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Wed, 23 Nov 2005 10:20:30 GMT 2005112310102030 A haven for al-qaeda? Somalia's persistent institutional weakness, coupled with known al-Qaeda connections to the country, makes it susceptible to 'hijacking' by al-Qaeda. It has been without a functioning central government since its dictator Mohamed Siad Barre was overthrown in 1991 after a brutal civil war. Armed from immense Cold War arsenals supplied by the Soviets and Americans, separate clans and subclans extended genealogical networks that had united against Siad Barre... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8-2002/volume-8---issue-1/somalia-and-the-war-on-terrorism/ 3748 Wed, 23 Nov 2005 10:52:45 GMT 20051123105245 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Wed, 23 Nov 2005 10:52:45 GMT 2005112310105245 A defining moment for the federation Serbia's parliamentary elections on 23 December will mark the definitive end of the Slobodan Milosevic era, as Serbia's former opposition consolidates power and takes full control of Serbia's institutions. However, this transition promises to be anything but smooth. The 18-party coalition known as the Democratic Opposition of Serbia (DOS), whose supporters ousted Milosevic in October, risks collapse after the elections and the tasks facing the incoming gover http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-10/serbia-goes-to-the-polls/ 3757 Wed, 13 Sep 2006 10:49:55 GMT 20060913104955 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Wed, 13 Sep 2006 10:49:55 GMT 2006091310104955 The debate over border management As the European Union prepares for the possible admission of new members within three to five years, political debate is intensifying among its 15 existing members, as well as its candidate states, over the issue of border controls. What began in 1985 as an agreement between core members of the EU on abolishing mutual border checkpoints has developed into an integral part of EU law. A revision to the EU treaties that came into force last year means that new mem http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-9/expanding-the-eu/ 3758 Wed, 13 Sep 2006 10:50:41 GMT 20060913105041 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Wed, 13 Sep 2006 10:50:41 GMT 2006091310105041 Basque separatist terrorism A bloody resurgence Terrorism has returned to tarnish Spain's image as a prosperous and self-confident European nation. ETA (Basque Homeland and Liberty), the radical Basque separatist group, has killed 13 people and wounded many more since it called off a 14-month truce in December 1999, making this the bloodiest summer in seven years. ETA supporters clash regularly with riot police in the Basque cities of northern Spain. Buses are burned, banks and post offices are... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-8/basque-separatist-terrorism/ 3763 Wed, 02 Nov 2005 10:13:08 GMT 20051102101308 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Wed, 02 Nov 2005 10:13:08 GMT 2005110210101308 Russia's armed forces Problems of reform and resettlement In Russia's April presidential elections, more than 80% of active service personnel voted for Vladimir Putin, compared with the 25% who voted for Boris Yeltsin in the first round of the 1996 presidential polls. Military personnel hoped that Putin himself a former security-service officer would address the acute social and economic problems facing the military after ten years of ill-implemented reforms. But Putin risks... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-7/russias-armed-forces/ 3768 Wed, 02 Nov 2005 10:58:30 GMT 20051102105830 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:12:00 GMT 20050731171200 Wed, 02 Nov 2005 10:58:30 GMT 2005110210105830 A new US approach to sub-Saharan engagement African countries are reluctant to host regional headquarters for AFRICOM, the United States' new command centre for the continent, so the US needed a novel approach to strategic engagement. Its Navy has taken the lead with the 'Africa Partnership Station' concept. On the programme's inaugural tour, the USS Fort Henry and three other craft travelled around Africa engaging in a broad range of maritime-security training and community-outreach schemes. http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-6/the-africa-partnership-station/ 19005 Wed, 04 Feb 2009 15:53:02 GMT 20090204155302 Mon, 04 Aug 2008 11:38:36 GMT 20080804113836 Wed, 04 Feb 2009 15:53:02 GMT 200902041535302 Budget crisis looms   The United States Department of Defense (DoD) and military services are facing their most acute planning and budgetary crisis since the fall in defence spending that followed the end of the Cold War. While the militarys internal projections call for continued expansion on top of the large funding increases of the past seven years, the Pentagon is expected to come under pressure particularly under a new administration to provide a more detailed strategic... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-4/americas-expensive-defence/ 16418 Wed, 25 Mar 2009 17:30:01 GMT 20090325173001 Wed, 07 May 2008 15:21:11 GMT 20080507152111 Wed, 25 Mar 2009 17:29:59 GMT 200903251752959 The aftermath of 11 September Following the devastating 11 September terrorist attacks on New York and Washington DC, the US and key allies are focused on how to combat al-Qaeda, the network allegedly responsible for the atrocities. There are powerful arguments to support military action against the group and its leader Osama bin Laden, but any force would have to be used extremely carefully and in... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7-2001/volume-7---issue-8/ 3337 Sun, 11 May 2008 18:56:33 GMT 20080511185633 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 11 May 2008 18:56:33 GMT 200805111865633 Jordan's predicaments Jordan's King Abdullah is being put to the test. The effects of the second Palestinian intifada have spread beyond Israel: Jordan too has struggled to contain the political, security and economic ramifications of the ten months of violent protests. As a relatively small and weak state buffeted by regional powers, Jordan's prime objective must be to navigate the present crisis and... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7-2001/volume-7---issue-7/ 3336 Sun, 11 May 2008 19:00:55 GMT 20080511190055 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 11 May 2008 19:00:54 GMT 200805111970054 Russia's military satellites Russia's military satellite programme has diminished greatly since the break-up of the Soviet Union. During the 1980s, the Soviet Space programme typically made 90-100 launch attempts annually, the majority being dedicated military satellites. The rate has since dropped by more than half, with military payloads in the minority. With the ending of the Cold War, a scaling... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7-2001/volume-7---issue-6/ 3335 Sun, 11 May 2008 19:05:16 GMT 20080511190516 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 11 May 2008 19:05:16 GMT 200805111970516 Cruise Missile Proliferation As international debate rages over US plans to deploy defences to protect not only the US homeland but also US forces, allies and friends around the globe against ballistic missile attack, it is becoming clear that such attacks are not the only kind of missile threat with which policy-makers must contend. Proliferation of land-attack cruise missiles (LACMs), which pose... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7-2001/volume-7---issue-5/ 3334 Sun, 11 May 2008 19:08:32 GMT 20080511190832 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 11 May 2008 19:08:32 GMT 200805111970832 Free trade in the Americas Heads of state from 34 Western Hemisphere countries have injected new political momentum into attempts to create a Free Trade Area of the Americas (FTAA). However, progress will not be achieved easily or quickly. In both the US and Latin America, public opinion is divided on the virtues of a hemispheric trade bloc. The two key countries involved in the negotiations, the US... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7-2001/volume-7---issue-4/ 3333 Sun, 11 May 2008 19:11:52 GMT 20080511191152 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 11 May 2008 19:11:52 GMT 200805111971152 Indonesia's leadership crisis Since his election as Indonesias President in October 1999, Aburrahman Wahid has faced huge challenges. He and his unstable coalition government have needed not only to revive a floundering economy, but also bring the armed forces under more effective civilian control while managing the centre-periphery tensions that have increasingly appeared to threaten national cohesion. Wahids... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7-2001/volume-7---issue-3/ 3332 Sun, 11 May 2008 19:21:29 GMT 20080511192129 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 11 May 2008 19:21:29 GMT 200805111972129 The future of Montenegro If Milo Djukanovic, the president of Montenegro, has his way there will be soon be two new states in Europe: Montenegro and Serbia. Both European Union countries and the United States have told the Montenegrins that they oppose its move to independence, but this alone is unlikely to stop it happening. Full text & PDF (free to all users) >>>... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7-2001/volume-7---issue-2/ 3331 Sun, 11 May 2008 19:25:46 GMT 20080511192546 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 11 May 2008 19:25:45 GMT 200805111972545 Colombia's war on drugs There is strong support in the incoming US administration for the $7.5 billion Plan Colombia aimed at eradicating Colombia's drug business and boosting its economic and social development. But the international community is divided over the plan's likely effectiveness. Many EU countries fear that the programme will exacerbate the root causes of Colombia's instability. They have... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7-2001/volume-7---issue-1/ 3330 Sun, 11 May 2008 19:30:19 GMT 20080511193019 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 11 May 2008 19:30:19 GMT 200805111973019 Saudi Arabia tackles the radical threat from within   A programme aimed at reintegrating jihadists into society forms an important and innovative part of Saudi Arabia's efforts to deal with radicals. So far, it appears to be a success albeit a qualified one.   Saudi Arabia's realisation that it was facing a threat stemmed not only from the activities of Osama bin Laden, the al-Qaeda leader and son of a Saudi construction magnate; in the 11 September 2001 attacks on the United States,... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-5/rehabilitating-the-jihadists/ 18120 Fri, 22 Aug 2008 09:26:37 GMT 20080822092637 Mon, 30 Jun 2008 16:51:27 GMT 20080630165127 Fri, 22 Aug 2008 09:26:37 GMT 200808220992637 Besides military action, police reforms are needed Mexico has been on major drug-trafficking routes into the United States since the mid 1980s, but the violence associated with this illegal trade has escalated alarmingly in the past few years. Since President Felipe Calderón took office at the end of 2006, drug-related violence has claimed nearly 5,000 lives more than 3,200 of them in 2008. An army crackdown by Calderón has provoked an increasingly militarised response from the country's drug cartels, http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-8/spiralling-drug-violence-in-mexico/page-2/ 20445 Wed, 19 Nov 2008 09:51:02 GMT 20081119095102 Tue, 07 Oct 2008 15:30:16 GMT 20081007153016 Wed, 19 Nov 2008 09:51:02 GMT 200811190995102 National Front rule in jeopardy?   By registering a resounding repudiation of the recent policies and record of Malaysias government, the results of elections to its federal and state parliaments on 8 March surprised observers of the countrys politics. The Barisan Nasional (BN, or National Front) coalition, which has governed since independence in 1957, retained control of the federal government. But the opposition took an unprecedentedly large number of parliamentary seats and denied... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-3/malaysias-new-politics/ 15034 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 13:04:25 GMT 20081211130425 Fri, 04 Apr 2008 19:41:47 GMT 20080404194147 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 13:04:25 GMT 200812111310425 What are the prospects for a diplomatic resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue? The answer is shaping up as a contest of wills. On the one hand, the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the United States) have agreed gradually to increase mandatory economic and political sanctions against Iran until it agrees to suspend its uranium-enrichment programme. Suspension is a condition for beginning multilateral... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-13-2007/volume-13-issue-3/irans-nuclear-programme/ 7173 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 13:52:49 GMT 20081211135249 Mon, 30 Apr 2007 18:46:22 GMT 20070430184622 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 13:52:49 GMT 200812111315249 How close is it? The policy options available to the international community in its efforts to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear-weapons capability depend to a great extent on how close Iran is to reaching that goal. As Iran continued to forge ahead with uranium-enrichment operations, senior officials from the United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Russia and China gathered in New York in late September 2007 to discuss a possible new UN Security Council resolution. However, it... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-13-2007/volume-13-issue-7/nuclear-iran/ 7942 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 13:54:28 GMT 20081211135428 Thu, 27 Sep 2007 13:24:36 GMT 20070927132436 Thu, 11 Dec 2008 13:54:28 GMT 200812111315428 Seeking long-term solutions Dealing with the problem of poppy cultivation remains central to counter-insurgency and nation-building efforts in Afghanistan. Money earned from its culture helps to fund the Taliban insurgency and induces crime and corruption, thus undermining the building of government institutions. It severely complicates the mission of NATO forces, many of whose governments use the drug problem to help justify their deployment to Afghanistan. Meanwhile, drug abuse is growing... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-13-2007/volume-13-issue-6/afghanistans-poppy-crop-/ 7758 Fri, 03 Aug 2007 11:16:25 GMT 20070803111625 Fri, 03 Aug 2007 11:13:29 GMT 20070803111329 Fri, 03 Aug 2007 11:16:25 GMT 2007080311111625 Future in the balance General Pervez Musharrafs seizure of power eight years ago was widely popular in Pakistan because his coup followed 11 years of chaotic democracy in which four successive governments two led by Benazir Bhutto and two by Nawaz Sharif were dogged by accusations of corruption and incompetence. He has led the country through a turbulent period, including provision of support to the American war on terror, military confrontation and... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-13-2007/volume-13-issue-8/volatile-pakistan/ 8030 Tue, 27 Nov 2007 13:14:12 GMT 20071127131412 Wed, 24 Oct 2007 16:42:07 GMT 20071024164207 Tue, 27 Nov 2007 13:14:12 GMT 200711271311412 Many candidates, sharp divisions The 2008 US presidential election campaign commenced, in effect, more than a year ago, and has nearly another year to go. Campaigning for Americas highest office has become virtually a never-ending feature of the political landscape. But voters only pay serious attention to the battles for their parties respective presidential nominations in the autumn. This real battle has now begun in earnest. The first important test the complicated... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-13-2007/volume-13-issue-9/americas-election-choices/ 8085 Fri, 30 Nov 2007 16:40:11 GMT 20071130164011 Fri, 30 Nov 2007 16:18:15 GMT 20071130161815 Fri, 30 Nov 2007 16:40:11 GMT 200711301644011 From Kyoto to Bali   On 315 December 2007, over 10,000 delegates, observers and journalists attended the United Nations Climate Change Conference in Bali at which representatives of 187 countries agreed on the Bali Roadmap. This is intended to pave the way to a successor agreement to the Kyoto Protocol to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the first phase of which expires in 2012.   The Bali conference actually comprised five overlapping meetings of separate bodies... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-1/climate-change/ 9118 Fri, 01 Feb 2008 15:50:05 GMT 20080201155005 Wed, 16 Jan 2008 09:51:55 GMT 20080116095155 Fri, 01 Feb 2008 15:50:05 GMT 200802011535005 A focus for Chinese diplomacy    The Olympic Games in Beijing in August are shining a spotlight on Chinas growth as an economic and political power. Anxious to demonstrate that its rise is benign, Chinas leaders have been modifying a range of foreign and domestic policies in the build-up to the event. These changes are likely to persist beyond the games, but so too will international concerns about the direction of the countrys development.   When Chinese officials were bidding in... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-14-2008/volume-14-issue-2/the-beijing-olympics/ 13575 Mon, 03 Mar 2008 13:19:35 GMT 20080303131935 Mon, 03 Mar 2008 12:07:03 GMT 20080303120703 Mon, 03 Mar 2008 13:19:34 GMT 200803031311934 Challenges facing verification Despite more than five years of a highly intrusive verification regime, it is clear that the determined efforts of the UN Special Commission (UNSCOM) on Iraq have still not unveiled the full extent of Saddam Husseins extraordinarily ambitious war machine. The fact that Iraqs development programmes in the nuclear, biological, chemical and missile fields is still unknown, and that... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-3---1997/volume-3---issue-1/ 3370 Mon, 10 Mar 2008 15:38:17 GMT 20080310153817 Tue, 02 Aug 2005 13:15:25 GMT 20050802131525 Mon, 10 Mar 2008 15:38:17 GMT 200803101533817 Serbia goes to the polls Serbia's parliamentary elections on 23 December will mark the definitive end of the Slobodan Milosevic era, as Serbia's former opposition consolidates power and takes full control of Serbia's institutions. However, this transition promises to be anything but smooth. The 18-party coalition, whose supporters ousted Milosevic in October, risks collapse after the elections and the... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-10/ 3349 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:21:25 GMT 20080330172125 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:21:25 GMT 200803301752125 Expanding the EU As the European Union prepares for the possible admission of new members within three to five years, political debate is intensifying among its members, as well as its candidate states, over the issue of border controls. One of the most controversial implications of EU border arrangements is that countries wanting to join the Union will first have to harden their frontiers with their... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-9/ 3348 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:24:22 GMT 20080330172422 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:24:22 GMT 200803301752422 Basque separatist terrorism In recent weeks, Spain has suffered its bloodiest attacks by Basque terrorists in seven years. ETA, the radical Basque separatist group, has killed 13 people and wounded many more since it cancelled a 14-month truce in December 1999. The groups supporters clash regularly with riot police in the Basque cities of northern Spain. A string of recent police successes has... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-8/ 3347 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:28:05 GMT 20080330172805 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:28:05 GMT 200803301752805 Russia's armed forces Vladimir Putins rise to the Russian presidency raised hopes within the Russian military that the acute social and economic problems facing the armed forces after 10 years of ill-executed reforms could be resolved. But Putins proposed force-structure changes risk eroding this crucial pillar of support, unless he can also improve living conditions for military personnel and boost... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-7/ 3346 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:30:35 GMT 20080330173035 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:30:34 GMT 200803301753034 China's ambitions in Myanmar While Myanmar remains shunned by the West, the countrys two giant neighbours, India and China, are jockeying for influence in Yangon. China enjoys a considerable head start, but any major foreign-policy changes in Myanmar are unlikely as long as its two most important leaders, Ne Win and General Than Shwe, are still alive. But there are signs of a possible power struggle... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-6/ 3345 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:33:11 GMT 20080330173311 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:33:11 GMT 200803301753311 After the Korean summit The unprecedented summit between the leaders of North and South Korea in Pyongyang this month has led both sides to hope for stronger mutual economic ties. The North desperately needs investment and aid from the South to revive its shattered economy. But there are obstacles to closer cooperation. The North remains concerned about the social and political impact of opening up to... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-5/ 3344 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:36:06 GMT 20080330173606 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:36:06 GMT 200803301753606 Diamonds and conflict International efforts to curb the trade in diamonds from conflict areas are gaining momentum as fighting for control of diamond mines in countries such as Sierra Leone, Angola and the Democratic Republic of Congo attracts increasing global attention. The Group of Eight (G-8) is likely to endorse new initiatives at a meeting of their foreign ministers in July. But given the... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-4/ 3343 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:38:53 GMT 20080330173853 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:38:52 GMT 200803301753852 Stuck in the Lebanese 'mud' A unilateral withdrawal of Israeli troops from south Lebanon seems likely following the failure of the Geneva summit peace negotiations between US President Bill Clinton and Syrian President Hafez al-Assad in March. The presence of Israeli troops in Lebanon is increasingly unpopular domestically. But withdrawal in the absence of a wider deal will increase the risk of... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-3/ 3342 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:41:58 GMT 20080330174158 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:41:58 GMT 200803301754158 Taiwan's presidential elections Taiwans presidential elections in March 2000 could mark the end of more than 50 years of Kuomintang rule. The elections will have a significant impact on Taiwans relations with China. These deteriorated sharply in 1999 after Taiwanese President Lee Teng-hui declared that the two countries should conduct their relations on a special state-to-state basis a move away... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-2/ 3341 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:44:55 GMT 20080330174455 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:44:55 GMT 200803301754455 The Putin regime in Russia The surprise resignation of Russian President Boris Yeltsin on New Years Eve 1999 has left his chosen successor, transitional President Vladimir Putin, well placed to win the presidential elections due on 26 March 2000. Many Russians welcome Putins youth and determination after Yeltsins weak leadership. His launch of a campaign against rebels in Chechnya has also earned... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-6---2000/volume-6---issue-1/ 3340 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:47:13 GMT 20080330174713 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:47:12 GMT 200803301754712 NATO after the Prague summit NATO's Prague summit, on 21-22 November 2002, was a modest success. A confrontation over Iraq was avoided because US President George W. Bush's decision to take the issue to the UN both narrowed the transatlantic rift and put off the immediate prospect of military action. The challenge of a yawning capabilities gap between 21st-century US forces and under-funded, Cold... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8-2002/volume-8---issue-10/ 3329 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:52:53 GMT 20080330175253 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:52:53 GMT 200803301755253 North Korean nuclear tensions Pyongyang's admission that it has a clandestine nuclear programme in violation of its treaty obligations has significantly increased tensions in and around the Korean Peninsula, and presented Washington and its regional allies with a major policy dilemma. While all sides are working towards a diplomatic solution, the dynamics of the dispute leave room for a potentially... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8-2002/volume-8---issue-9/ 3328 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:55:41 GMT 20080330175541 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:55:41 GMT 200803301755541 Defending against Iraqi missiles Although Iraq probably possesses only a small fraction of the longer-range al-Hussein missiles it had in 1991, the relatively few missiles still in Iraqi hands can be primitively armed with chemical and biological weapons (CBW). With regime change a declared US goal this time round, Saddam may be more inclined to use CBW against both military targets and civilian... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8-2002/volume-8---issue-8/ 3327 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:58:51 GMT 20080330175851 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 17:58:51 GMT 200803301755851 Al-Qaeda: one year on US-led military action in Afghanistan released the Taliban's grip on power and deprived al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, his inner circle and hundreds of rank-and-file al-Qaeda members of a friendly host, a recruiting 'magnet' and a relatively comfortable physical base of operations. The global intelligence and law-enforcement mobilisation, meanwhile, has made communications,... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8-2002/volume-8---issue-7/ 3326 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 18:01:55 GMT 20080330180155 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 18:01:55 GMT 200803301860155 America's Afghan imbroglio Since the ouster of the Taliban regime, US policymakers have feared becoming bogged down in Afghanistan.  This has locked them into a fixed approach, supporting the Northern Alliance-dominated central government and buying the cooperation of provincial warlords.  However, ironically, the danger of being bogged down is rising owing to the failure of the US to show the... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8-2002/volume-8---issue-6/ 3325 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 18:04:33 GMT 20080330180433 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 18:04:32 GMT 200803301860432 Dealing with the 'axis of evil' The 11 September terrorist attacks led the Bush administration to add its new top threat (terrorists possessing WMD) to its old top threat (rogue states with WMD) to produce the axis of evil.  To defeat this new threat, Washington has begun to develop a doctrine that emphasises defence (both missile defence and homeland security), pre-emptive actions and effecting... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8-2002/volume-8---issue-5/ 3324 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 18:07:08 GMT 20080330180708 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 18:07:08 GMT 200803301860708 Iraq after Saddam Current speculation over possible US military intervention to overthrow Iraqi President Saddam Hussein suggests that 'regime change' in Baghdad is more likely to be brought about in the near future by external intervention than by internal conspiracy. It is worth considering, therefore, what might follow from such action. Much that may occur in the wake of military action cannot be... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8-2002/volume-8---issue-4/ 3323 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 18:10:02 GMT 20080330181002 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 18:10:02 GMT 200803301861002 Military options towards Iraq Washington has made clear its desire for 'regime change' in Iraq, seeing Saddam Hussein's removal as the way to reduce perceived Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMD) threats emanating from that country. To achieve this, the US would have to plan an invasion resembling Operation Desert Storm and involving around 200,000 troops. Other options, such as using more limited force... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8-2002/volume-8---issue-3/ 3322 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 18:13:04 GMT 20080330181304 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 18:13:04 GMT 200803301861304 Somalia and the 'war' on terrorism Somalias persistent institutional weakness, coupled with known al-Qaeda connections to the country, makes it susceptible to 'hijacking' by al-Qaeda. Major US action there is unlikely, however. Present US policy towards Somalia is essentially preventative. With foreign assistance and diplomatic support, Washington may choose to encourage the political and economic... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-8-2002/volume-8---issue-1/ 3320 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 18:21:39 GMT 20080330182139 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 30 Mar 2008 18:21:39 GMT 200803301862139 Post-Taliban Afghanistan On 6 December in Bonn, Afghan factions reached agreement on the composition of an Interim Administration to govern the country in the initial post-Taliban period. They also agreed a series of comprehensive, step-by-step consultations aimed at devising more permanent political arrangements backed by a new constitution. In recognition of the fact that inclusiveness has a large... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7-2001/volume-7---issue-10/ 3339 Sun, 11 May 2008 18:46:10 GMT 20080511184610 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 11 May 2008 18:46:09 GMT 200805111864609 Germany's 'new' foreign policy On 7 November, the German cabinet agreed, subject to the approval of the Bundestag, a US request for military support in the international campaign against terrorism. Berlin indicated its willingness to deploy up to 3,900 troops. The move follows recent attempts by Chancellor Gerhard Schröder explicitly to recast Germany's place on the international scene and move towards a more... http://www.iiss.org/publications/strategic-comments/past-issues/volume-7-2001/volume-7---issue-9/ 3338 Sun, 11 May 2008 18:52:43 GMT 20080511185243 Sun, 31 Jul 2005 17:08:53 GMT 20050731170853 Sun, 11 May 2008 18:52:43 GMT 200805111865243