Volume 48, Number 1 of Survival, the Institute's quarterly journal, has been published.
IISS Members and subscribers can access Survival online by clicking
hereFor non-subscribers, a pay-per-view facility allows purchases of individual
Survival articles.
The charge for each article is £10/$18.
For a Capability to Protect: Mass Killing, the African Union and NATO
David C. Gompert
Darfur confirms what was already known: the United States and its European allies want Africans to take chief responsibility to stop mass killing in their region, and Africans are willing to try by using and strengthening the African Union (AU). Yet creating an AU ‘capability to protect’ depends vitally on Western help. It is not enough to increase the supply of African peacekeepers: peacekeeping works when the warring parties are ready for peace, whereas genocide occurs when there is no peace to keep. Besides more peacekeepers, Africa needs a capability for forcible humanitarian intervention. This implies AU forces superior to the forces doing the killing, including those of the complicit regime – a tall order to be sure, but feasible because killing forces usually lack combat capability and are ready to kill but not to fight. To build such a force, the AU should look upon NATO as a model for force planning and force generation, and as a partner ready to assist and stand behind AU forces.
Military Force and European Strategy
Mary Kaldor and Andrew Salmon
Within the framework of the European Security Strategy, approved by the European Council in December 2003, it is assumed that European forces would contribute to global security and would engage in tasks that are different from classic war fighting or traditional peacekeeping. These operations can be described as law enforcement or human security operations even though they are more robust than policing and may involve the use of military force. Prerequisities for these operations include: the primacy of human rights; legality; appropriate military response; clear political authority; civil, police and military coordination; and adequate intelligence and information. The coordination of these elements will require a change in military culture and in civil–military relations as well as considerable political will.
Thinking Straight and Talking Straight: Problems of Intelligence Analysis
Douglas Hart and Steven Simon
Supplying accurate and actionable intelligence for the ‘global war on terror’ is threatened by a convergence of societal and governmental trends that make it extremely difficult to hire the right people, train them or allow them to collaborate effectively. None of the current efforts to reform the US intelligence community addresses these virtually intractable pedagogical, cultural and organisational challenges. However, there are some possible measures to remedy these weaknesses, at least partially. Emerging information technology, already being adopted by commercial and non-governmental enterprises, has the potential to address key aspects of the structural problems plaguing the intelligence community.
Iran and North Korea: The Proliferation Nexus
Mark Fitzpatrick
As international pressure mounts against the nuclear and missile proliferation threats posed by North Korea and Iran, the two nations are increasingly likely to turn to one another. While nuclear cooperation is a matter of unconfirmed speculation, North Korea–Iran missile cooperation is well documented. To what extent the two pariahs coordinate strategy is unclear; certainly they keep an attentive eye toward each other. The United States, meanwhile, appears not to coordinate its own policies toward the two states. Washington engages with Pyongyang and has offered it security assurances, policies that remain off limits for Tehran.
Turkey and Russia: Axis of the Excluded?
Fiona Hill and Omer Taspinar
Since 2003, Turkey and Russia have drawn together in a new bilateral relationship. Mutual frustration with US regional policies and European attitudes has been the main driver of this rapprochement, along with expanding trade and increasing common ground on foreign-policy issues. Turkish–Russian relations have not yet blossomed into a strategic partnership, and suspicions linger after centuries of geopolitical competition, but the United States can no longer rely on Turkey as an automatic counterweight to Russia in regions like the Black Sea and the Caucasus. Together, Turkey and Russia also have the potential to obstruct American policy initiatives in the Middle East. To head off potential problems, Washington will have to address Turkey’s concerns about US policy in Iraq.
Ukraine and the West
F. Stephen Larrabee
Unlike his predecessor Leonid Kuchma, Ukrainian President Victor Yushchenko is genuinely committed to Ukraine’s integration into the European Union and NATO. Ukraine’s integration into these institutions would dramatically change the political map of Europe and could have a catalytic affect on the region, reinforcing the Western orientation of Georgia and Moldova. It could also have an impact on the prospects for reform in Russia. However, Ukraine’s Western integration remains uncertain. Yushchenko’s push for the EU and NATO comes at a time when both institutions are facing new challenges and doubts about the wisdom of further enlargement. There are signs, moreover, that the Orange Revolution may be losing momentum. A lot will depend on the outcome of the parliamentary elections in March 2006. A coalition of reformist forces led by President Yushchenko could give Ukraine’s push for Western integration new impetus. But a victory by the forces allied with former Prime Minister Victor Yanukovych could be a severe setback for Ukraine’s hopes of Western integration.
Averting Failure in Afghanistan
Seth G. Jones
The current US and NATO strategy in Afghanistan involves establishing security with a light footprint. The deteriorating security environment demonstrates that this strategy has not been successful. The level of troops, police and financial assistance has been among the lowest of any stability operation since the Second World War, and there has been no peace settlement. The US decision to hand control of the volatile southern provinces to NATO has also triggered deep concerns among Afghan leaders about America’s long-term commitment, as well as NATO’s ability to fight a sustained counter-insurgency campaign. These problems are unfortunate, since they may undermine Afghanistan’s success to date in building democracy and improving social and economic conditions.
Securing Afghanistan’s Border
Amin Saikal
As Afghanistan goes through a painful transition from a theocratic past to a possible pluralist future, the country continues to face serious border-security problems. The most problematic border is with Pakistan. Although Islamabad has repeatedly pledged to stop cross-border armed infiltrations and drug trafficking, Kabul strongly believes that Pakistan has not done enough. Unless this long and treacherous border, with a complex history, is secured, it has the potential not only to undermine Afghanistan’s transition, but also to imperil regional stability. The sooner this challenge is overcome the better for all parties concerned, and the power that can play a key role in the process is the United States.
The Persian Gulf and the Geopolitics of Oil
Joe Barnes and Amy Myers Jaffe
The United States has become increasingly entangled in Persian Gulf politics and this involvement will have wide ranging consequences for the geopolitics of oil and its stable flow to world markets. A refocus of US strategy is badly needed: Washington needs to exploit natural alliances among countries that have a stake in a stable Middle East. Internationalisation of issues is the best way to help the Persian Gulf region avoid increasing militarisation. Asian leaders are becoming increasingly worried about their economies’ growing dependence on Persian Gulf oil and gas and are likely to be receptive to any multi-national initiative that would make supplies from the region more secure or provide a framework for developing alternative energy substitutes. In particular, the United States could greatly benefit from drawing China into the equation as an oil-importer ally rather than focusing on how Beijing could some day be a strategic rival.
China, Japan and the Scramble for Siberia
Lyle Goldstein and Vitaly Kozyrev
If an emerging Sino-Russian energy nexus becomes sufficiently robust, there could be profound geopolitical consequences, including most significantly the consolidation of a bipolar order (China versus the United States) in the Asia-Pacific region. Japan’s competing pipeline initiative suddenly appeared to become the front-runner in 200, partly as a consequence of the Kremlin campaign against Yukos. Nevertheless, Russia’s current plan represents a cautious strategy to preserve its flexibility and delay the difficult decision. The West should vigorously campaign for a route that reaches the shores of the Pacific, in order to enhance multipolarity in the Asia-Pacific region.
China’s Energy Security: Domestic and International Issues
Zha Daojiong
Energy security became an issue for China as a by-product of economic expansion. Over the past three decades China’s access to offshore sources of energy has never been threatened for political reasons. The webs of interdependence between China and United States and its Asian allies on the one hand, and oil-supplying countries on the other, provide the single most powerful assurance against future disruptions to Chinese oil imports. The more daunting challenge for China is to make energy governance a key element in its conservation programmes. For the rest of the world, the desirable approach is to work with China in order to achieve a managed rise in China’s energy consumption.
