Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, vol. 52, no. 1, February–March 2010, pp. 5–10
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Despite the differences that have sometimes divided them, Europe and the United States constitute a single civilisation, one that appeared to triumph at the end of the Cold War. Russia has resisted becoming a full member of this civilisation, but may soon have to make a choice.
Today, the Euro-Atlantic world seems far less victorious than it did in the 1990s. China and other Asian countries look like the true winners of the Cold War. It seems that China and Southeast Asia are destined to enjoy economic and political success for at least one more decade – much to the displeasure of their competitors and the ideological advocates of political liberalism. China’s rise is based on the country’s readiness to undertake economic and social experiments and the ability of its efficient authoritarian government to harness the benefits of these experiments. Meanwhile, revolutionary changes in the international political and military spheres, coupled with the unprecedented openness of the information age, have denied the ‘Old West’ the ability to impose its political and economic rules on others by force, as it used to do in the past. Today, neither nuclear superiority nor even conventional superiority is as important as it once was.
Against this backdrop, America’s geopolitical position and claims to sole world leadership have sharply deteriorated, particularly in light of conflicts in Iraq, Pakistan and Afghanistan, and the economic crisis. It is clear that the United States will never completely regain its former status.
The international political position of non-Russian Europe is even more precarious. Europe benefited from the end of the Cold War, as it was relieved of the burden of confrontation and the need to play a subordinate role to the US guarantor of its security. The continent’s generally successful experiment with comprehensive integration, unprecedented in human history, has enabled Europe to gradually overcome the curse of state nationalism and inter-state conflict and create a new, humane, innovative and even ‘post-European’ civilisation.
Deliverance from the Cold War burden, however, did not release the energy of the EU countries outwards. Indeed, these countries continued to withdraw from ‘big world’ politics at a time when power transitions were giving rise to geopolitical competitions. While it is true that the energy-intensive process of internal European construction accounts for part of this withdrawal, it was also prompted by a deep-seated reluctance to sacrifice anything for the strategic goals of global politics. This reluctance, borne of the fatigue that set in during the bloody twentieth century, has existed for a long time, but has become particularly evident in recent years. Today, Europe is retreating into itself; it is running away from international problems rather than facing them.
The entry into force of the Lisbon Treaty, despite its provisions for an EU president and ‘foreign minister’, will not reverse this process but only slow it down.
The new configuration of the world order raises the problem of Russia’s place within it, especially given the country’s prevailing internal-development trends. Despite encouraging talk about innovation-based development, the…
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Sergei Karaganov ischairman of the non-govermental Council on Foreign and Defense Policy and dean of the School of World Economics and International Affairs at the Russian Research University – Higher School of Economics.
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