By Paula J. Dobriansky and Vaughan C. Turekian
Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, vol. 51, no. 6, December 2009–January 2010, pp. 21–28
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As talks get under way in December 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark to negotiate a successor to the 1997 Kyoto Protocol, few believe that the nearly 190 countries taking part will have an easy time finalising a global climate treaty under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). Fortunately, the 12 years since the conclusion of Kyoto have provided an abundance of ideas and experiences that can contribute to effective global action to address climate change.
The ultimate issue for Copenhagen is whether a critical mass of major greenhouse-gas-emitting nations, particularly rapidly developing countries and the United States, is willing to sign on to a legally binding international treaty on climate change that identifies targets and timetables for greenhouse-gas reductions. Without this critical mass, Copenhagen is unlikely to produce results of historic significance.
While the stakes of this process are high, the intense focus on Copenhagen among diplomats, the environmental community, industry and the media should not obscure the fact that these talks are only one facet of the intricate and diverse set of discussions and activities that have emerged globally to develop both technical and policy solutions to climate change. Individually, developed and developing countries are establishing and implementing national policies and investing in new technologies. Internationally, governments, companies and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) are working together in numerous venues to share ideas, coordinate policies in such areas as regulation, research and investment, and distil lessons that can be incorporated into new policies. Linking these many efforts, which range from large international exchanges to targeted multilateral groups to action-oriented partnerships, will be crucial to any successful outcome in Copenhagen and beyond. Together, these broad and diverse efforts can become powerful and mutually reinforcing tools. And they are central to success in combating climate change.
International efforts
The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change is the premier international forum for climate-change negotiations, and the results of its December 2009 Copenhagen conference will strongly shape global attitudes toward international efforts to reduce emissions. Created during the 1992 UN Conference on Environment and Development, the UNFCCC defines its core objective as the ‘stabilisation of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system’ – in other words, limiting the impact of human activity on the global climate. In working towards this goal, the convention codifies national commitments for developing policies to reduce greenhouse-gas emissions, promotes technology transfer from developed to developing countries, and shares information about national policies and their effectiveness.
Negotiations between and during the UNFCCC’s annual Conference of Parties (COP) meetings usually focus on setting a single emissions target for developed countries while eschewing targets for rapidly developing countries. While this is in keeping with the UNFCCC’s principle of ‘common but differentiated responsibility’ for developed and developing countries in reducing emissions, it has predictably led to gridlock and frustration as each group presses the other to make a more significant commitment. Our own experiences, informed by collectively attending over half the COP...
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Paula J. Dobriansky is a former Under Secretary of State for Global Affairs and is currently a Senior Fellow at Harvard University’s Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs. Vaughan C. Turekian is the Chief International Officer and Director for the Center for Science Diplomacy at the American Association for the Advancement of Science. He served previously as an adviser on science and climate-change issues at the US Department of State.
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