Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, vol. 51, no. 6, December 2009–January 2010, pp. 123–146
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Since the beginning of 2009, top American and Chinese officials have repeatedly stressed that the two countries are ‘in the same boat’ and need to work together to weather the storm of the several crises, especially economic, that are buffeting the world. But a successful voyage requires a single designated captain; orders, given harshly or kindly, are expected to be obeyed; and there has to be agreement on the rules of navigation. Ending up on the rocks is always a possibility, which leads to hedging behaviour. And if you do reach the shore successfully, any grievances suppressed while you all breasted the waves may come spilling out into the open.
The boat metaphor captures reasonably well issues of cooperation and competition contained within the Sino-American relationship. In the last few months, the two nations have often been spoken of as equals or co-dependents, especially as a result of the global economic crisis. On the other hand, underlying much of this commentary has been a sense that, over the longer term, we are witnessing a transition of power from the United States to China, which might well involve intense rivalry and potentially even war. China’s rise raises questions about America’s ability to adjust to Beijing’s enhanced influence; about how China will use its newfound strength; and about whether its military modernisation will set off an arms race in Asia, with all the attendant concerns associated with a security dilemma. The Asia-Pacific region has enjoyed inter-state peace since 1979, but the strategic architecture has been unsettled by China’s growing influence and ability to project power. Many question whether China’s growing strength should be compared with the US position at the end of the nineteenth century or, more ominously, with the rise of Germany and Japan during the same period.
One new feature of the debate is the acceptance that cooperation between the United States and China is vital to global and regional order in many issue areas. Yet sustained cooperation between Beijing and Washington will be difficult to maintain. Four factors account for much of that difficulty: the conviction, in both countries, of national ‘exceptionalism’; the two countries’ differing political systems; the historically resonant problem of China’s rise and the attendant transition of global power (which may be an impending reality or may be more a matter of perception); and long-standing mutual strategic distrust. The task of analysis becomes one of defining which of these factors are structural and which are more susceptible to diplomatic negotiation. The purpose of such negotiation is to manage more successfully a relationship comprising both partnership and rivalry, the better to cope cooperatively with serious global challenges, of which three of the most urgent are the global economic crisis, climate change and the proliferation of nuclear weapons.
The global economic crisis
The United States and China are the world’s two largest economies in purchasing power parity terms. They are both engines of growth for a world economy that has not fractured in the way some had predicted...
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Rosemary Foot is Professor of International Relations and John Swire Senior Research Fellow at St Antony’s College, Oxford University. With her co-author, Andrew Walter, Foot is working on a book, China, the United States and Global Order, forthcoming from Cambridge University Press.
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