Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, vol. 51, no. 5, October–November 2009, pp. 185–192
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Axis of Convenience: Moscow, Beijing, and the New Geopolitics
Bobo Lo. London: Chatham House and Washington DC: Brookings Institution Press, 2008. £18.99/$32.95. 277 pp.
Axis of Convenience is the best recent book on contemporary Sino-Russian relations. I feel quite certain in this judgement as Bobo Lo’s work is the only book-length treatment on this important bilateral relationship to come out in English in the last five years. His central thesis is that there is a great deal of ambivalence in the relationship on both sides and that Sino-Russian ties are limited, likely neither bound for alliance against US hegemonism nor to devolve again into bitter acrimony and conflict as they did during the 1960s and 1970s.
Lo aspires to debunk ‘myths’ about the relationship, but in so doing he creates some new ones that require more rigorous inquiry and analysis. The central myth of the book is the virtual visionary status accorded to Vladimir Putin, Lo’s most frequently cited source with more than 20 footnotes devoted to his words. Perhaps this should not strike the reader as unusual, given the centralisation of power and authority in Russian policymaking, but nearly all of these references to Putin are uncritical and seem to take the Russian leader at his word. More striking are the frequent references Putin has made to the members of the Valdai Discussion Club, a gathering that Lo and I have both attended for the past three years. While one can glean some insights from interaction with and the comments of a state leader in a fairly intimate gathering such as Valdai, it is prudent to keep in mind that this is essentially a public-relations exercise sponsored by the Kremlin, designed to win the hearts and minds of its attendees.
One of Lo’s central contentions, repeated in many other places in slightly different language, is that
over the last few years, Sino-Russian relations have shown remarkable improvement. Moscow and Beijing have built on the progress of the late 1980s and 1990s to such an extent that ties today are closer and more substantial than at any time in the two countries’ history. (p. 38)
This statement is not necessarily wrong. In fact, I have recently written that ‘the official line from the Russian president and members of his administration tends to accentuate the positive – and it is probably true that China–Russia relations today are better than ever’. But I qualified this by saying, ‘But the history of China–Russia relations does not set the highest of bars, so to speak’. The problem is not so much with the conclusion, but how Lo supports it. His primary reference is something Putin said to the Valdai Discussion Club in 2006; the only other source he cites is Hu Jintao. This is akin to quoting George W. Bush as your only source on progress in the US war in Iraq.
In taking Putin at his word, Lo misses an opportunity for an interesting intellectual exercise: directly comparing the ‘unbreakable friendship’ of ...
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Andrew C. Kuchins is Director and Senior Fellow of the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, Washington DC.
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