Iran: Diplomacy and Deterrence

Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, vol. 51, no. 5, October–November 2009, pp. 5–13

 

  
 
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The Obama administration is not ready to concede an Iranian nuclear weapon. But absent diplomatic progress, the United States may have to accept Iran as a threshold or ‘virtual’ nuclear power. Neither sanctions nor deterrence is likely to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear-weapons capability, although deterrence might prevent the country from detonating a nuclear device or formally declaring its nuclear status. Washington has so far not threatened the use of force in Iran and is wary of the potentially negative consequences for US interests and allies of a military option that is not even certain to eliminate Iran’s nuclear-weapons capability. A diplomatic breakthrough, however slim the perceived possibilities, is still the best option to halt Iran’s nuclear-weapons ambitions.

Disillusion with diplomacy
As of summer 2009, the Obama administration was threatening to close the window on diplomacy with Iran. US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton said on 6 August 2009 that ‘we are under no illusions; we were under no illusions before their elections that we can get the kind of engagement we are seeking … We’re not going to keep the window open forever.’ The United States was expected to take stock of the situation with Iran at the G8 meeting accompanying the UN General Assembly session in late September 2009, around the time this journal will appear. Absent an Iranian response to an open invitation to resume multilateral talks, Washington was expected to make the case that despite its best efforts Iran had shown itself uninterested in diplomacy, meaning the time had come to consider alternative steps, such as sanctions.

The administration’s frustration is understandable. Since coming to office, President Barack Obama has offered to ‘extend a hand’ and engage in direct talks with Iran, dropping a previous US condition that Iran should first suspend all uranium-enrichment activity, as called for by five UN Security Council resolutions. In May 2009, President Obama sent a letter to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei offering a framework for talks on regional security and Iran’s nuclear programme.

The disputed outcome of the Iranian presidential elections increased the administration’s pessimism about the prospects for negotiations with Iran. Since 12 June, Obama has balanced his commitment to diplomacy with expressions of US sympathy and support for those Iranians who protested the election results and who have suffered imprisonment, beatings, torture, show trials, and a crackdown on media and free expression.

Obama’s diplomatic initiatives have taken place in the context of failed multilateral diplomacy over Iran’s nuclear programme and a well-documented record of Iranian refusals to cooperate fully with the efforts of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to verify the peaceful nature of its nuclear programmes, and to implement the IAEA Additional Protocol. Iran has also refused to take up formal proposals from the P5+1 (the United States, United Kingdom, Russia, China, France and Germany, as well as the European Union), which have included discussions with Iran about regional security; normalisation of political, economic, trade and energy relations; assistance with Iran’s civil...

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Andrew Parasiliti is Executive Director, IISS–US, and Corresponding Director, IISS–Middle East.

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