Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, vol. 51, no. 1, February–March 2009, pp. 61–80
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Hilary Synnott and Survival Editor Dana Alliln discuss the prospects for the country and the region. (Streaming video; 7:39)
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Because of the importance attached to military operations to destroy al-Qaeda, Pakistan is often viewed in the context of Afghanistan. As a result, events in Pakistan are usually assessed in terms of their effect on US objectives for Operation Enduring Freedom and on the operations of NATO’s International Security Assistance Force. Their implications for Pakistan as a whole have been neglected and sometimes poorly analysed. But the well-being and stability of Pakistan is of supreme importance in its own right. This importance needs to be reflected in a sound and coherent strategy towards the country. The formulation of such a strategy requires an informed understanding of Pakistan’s history; social, political and economic dynamics; and key personalities and influences. And the strategy needs to be underpinned by resources which are commensurate with the importance of the interests to be protected and advanced. Unfortunately, the customary means of acquiring real-time knowledge of events and personalities – diplomacy, media, commercial and other contacts – have been and still are impeded by the hazardous security situation in much of the country. Without a good understanding, actions taken for tactical purposes may have negative strategic consequences which outweigh the hoped-for benefits, as has occurred on several recent occasions.
The challenges in southwestern Asia need to be considered in three separate but related contexts: Afghanistan, the Afghan–Pakistani tribal belt, and Pakistan. In the present conjuncture, Pakistan is arguably the most important of the three. With nuclear weapons and a huge army, a population over five times that of Afghanistan, and simultaneous security, political and economic crises, it now seems less able, without outside help, to muddle through its challenges than at any time since its war with India in 1971.
A troubled past
At the end of the British-dominated colonial era in the Indian subcontinent, India achieved its long-sought objective of independence from the United Kingdom in 1947. But the break with Britain was a secondary objective for Pakistan, whose primary goal was to provide a homeland, separate from the new India, for those Muslims in the region who wished to make use of it. The ensuing arrangement was both bloody and inherently unstable. Vivid memories remain, in both India and Pakistan, of the mass movement of people, family separations and slaughter which caused at least half a million and possibly twice as many deaths. The Kashmir dispute, over which there was conflict immediately after the birth of the two new countries and several more subsequently, is still described by Pakistan as ‘the unfinished business of partition’, over 60 years after that event.
Although religious considerations were ostensibly the reason for Pakistan’s separation from India, they have never proved sufficient either to provide a durable national identity or to hold the country together. The war of 1971 and the secession of East Pakistan – Bangladesh – was the most extreme example of this. But despite successive military defeats and humiliations by India, Pakistan persisted with its attempts to use Islam as a means of nation building. Both the army...
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Hilary Synnott is Consulting Senior Fellow at the IISS. As a British diplomat, he was High Commissioner in Pakistan from 2000 until 2003, was the Coalition Provisional Authority Regional Coordinator for Southern Iraq in 2003–04, and had postings in India, Jordan, Germany and France.
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The Way Forward in Afghanistan: Three Views by Barnet Rubin, Amin Saikal and Julian Lindley-French (February–March 2009)
Afghan Diary by Rodric Braithwaite (February–March 2009)
Pakistan: Transition to What? by Teresita C. Schaffer (February–March 2008)
Pakistan’s Dangerous Game by Seth G. Jones (Spring 2007)
Securing Afghanistan’s Border by Amin Saikal (Spring 2006)
The Taliban Papers by Tim Judah (Spring 2002)
