Volume 50, Number 4 of Survival, the Institute's bi-monthly journal, has been published.
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Carrying China’s Torch
Robert Ayson and Brendan Taylor
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An Agenda for Human Dignity
Marc Perrin de Brichambaut
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Noteworthy
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Early Days in Iraq: Decisions of the CPA
L. Paul Bremer, James Dobbins and David Gompert
Iraq provides an object lesson in the costs and consequences of unprepared reconstruction. The record of the Coalition Provisional Authority during its 14 months in Iraq, in particular several of its most controversial decisions, including the disbandment of the Iraqi army, the exclusion of senior Ba’ath Party members from government office, the timing and organisation of national elections, the development of an Iraqi constitution and the beginnings of economic reconstruction, is examined and critiqued in the light of best practices developed in other post-conflict operations over the last 60 years. While not all of these decisions proved optimal in the light of hindsight, they did represent reasonable choices in view of possibilities then available to the CPA leadership and, in composite, they resulted in durable political and economic reforms that offer the Iraqi people an opportunity to build a stable, prosperous and peaceful Iraq. View this article online
Bad Days in Basra
Hilary Synnott
The CPA’s regional coordinator for the four southern Iraqi provinces wrote a book about his experiences. An extract. View this article online
The Impending Oil Shock: An Exchange
Amy Myers Jaffe, Michael T. Klare and Nader Elhefnawy
In the April–May 2008 issue of Survival (vol. 50, no. 2, pp. 37–66), Nader Elhefnawy argued that oil production is approaching its peak, with consequences that are likely to be dramatic. There will be increased risk of state failure and resource conflict; the economic balance of power among major industrial states will shift according to their relative abilities to adapt to a scarcity of fossil fuels; and oil producers will enjoy greater political power. Survival invited two experts on strategic energy issues, Amy Myers Jaffe and Michael T. Klare, to comment on Elhefnawy’s essay, and Elhefnawy to respond. View this article online
Why Europe Leads on Climate Change
John R. Schmidt
In January 2008, the EU announced an ambitious new plan to unilaterally reduce carbon emissions beyond its Kyoto commitments. An exploration of EU climate-change policy reveals a desire to minimise risk in the face of uncertainty about the precise impact of global warming. In taking a global leadership role, the EU seeks to enhance its prestige, to demonstrate to the United States that emission reductions can be done relatively cheaply, and to develop more affordable technologies that can be passed on to developing nations. EU policy is rooted in the same longing for security that led to creation of the social welfare state across Western Europe following the Second World War while reflecting a growing willingness to project European social-democratic proclivities onto the world stage. View this article online
Chechnya: Has Moscow Won?
Roland Dannreuther and Luke March
The image of Chechnya in the West remains one of radicalisation and conflict, unresolved secessionist ambition and Russian brutality. But far more than is generally acknowledged outside Russia, Moscow’s policies towards Chechnya have succeeded in their aims. The republic is now relatively peaceful; reconstruction is gaining momentum; and Chechnya’s leader, Ramzan Kadyrov, has been both an effective and seemingly faithful servant of Russia in the North Caucasus. However, it would be unwise to assume this represents a long-term solution to the problems in the North Caucasus. View this article online
Separatism and Democracy in the Caucasus
Nina Caspersen
The ‘standards before status’ policy for Kosovo has reignited hopes for independence in other de facto states and has led the authorities to emphasise their ability to create effective, democratic institutions. Analysis of the accompanying processes of state-building and democratisation in Abkhazia and Nagorno-Karabakh suggests that these entities should not be regarded merely as criminalised badlands. Significant changes in their internal politics could have a positive impact on the stalled talks, and these processes provide an avenue for constructive engagement. View this article online
Missile Contagion
Dennis M. Gormley
Since 2005 an astonishing number of new missile-development programmes have appeared in the Middle East, South Asia and Northeast Asia. The surprising fact is that land-attack cruise missiles, not ballistic missiles, constitute the primary problem, yet ballistic missiles, and defences against them, command virtually the exclusive attention of decision-makers. Perversely, the United States’ quest to sell ballistic-missile defences may be hastening cruise-missile proliferation. Knowing that defences are not nearly as effective against cruise missiles as they are against ballistic missiles, several states have turned to the former to complement the latter. Others, frustrated with the high cost of ballistic-missile defence, have turned to cheaper cruise missiles linked to pre-emptive strike doctrines. In either case, absent policy adjustments, the unintended by-product is likely to be regional arms races and crisis instability. View this article online
The California Consensus: Can Private Aid End Global Poverty?
Raj M. Desai and Homi Kharas
Global philanthropy is remaking the relationship between the world’s rich and poor. Private aid – aid provided by foundations, corporations, non-governmental organisations, and individuals – has doubled over the past decade and may soon overtake ‘official’ foreign aid. Something of a consensus has developed around the emergence of private aid – that is it is less prone to corruption and more likely to benefit the poor. While private aid has the potential to be a more effective form of aid, it remains vulnerable to many of the same problems affecting official development assistance. Private aid that is both accountable and well monitored, however, can potentially catalyse more competitive markets for foreign aid, and dismantle the monopoly held by traditional bilateral and multilateral donors. View this article online
Review Essay: Misreading Russia
Rodric Braithwaite View this article online
Review Essay: Ancient Lessons for Today’s Soldiers
H.R. McMaster View this article online
Review Essay: Responsible Intervention
Mary Kaldor View this article online
Book Reviews View this article online
Brief Notices View this article online
From the Archives: Survival 1978–1987 View this article online
Closing Argument: Are We At War?
Michael Howard View this article online
Video: Dr Dana Allin, editor of Survival, interviews Sir Michael Howard about his article, 'Are We At War?' (18 min)
