Strategic Survey 2007 Executive Summary
Perspectives
World affairs in the year to mid 2007 were dominated by the effects of America’s profound loss of authority, according to Strategic Survey 2007, the annual review from the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The book found that, following the failure to impose order on Iraq, ‘the weak pillar in the world’s security architecture was plain to see, and leaders across the globe sought to take advantage, or to protect themselves from the consequences’. In spite of the efforts of President George W. Bush to take a more accommodating approach, the damage to American standing and credibility was likely to take years to repair. Within the United States, failure in Iraq triggered the Republican Party’s loss of control of both houses of Congress.
With the United States and its president so discredited, some countries sensed an opportunity to flex their muscles. Iran pressed ahead with its nuclear programme in the face of repeated United Nations Security Council resolutions and the cautious imposition of international sanctions. According to Strategic Survey 2007, ‘Tehran’s calculation was perhaps that US military action, which could occur if Bush were to tire of diplomacy, would serve only to provoke international sympathy and to promote national unity’. Meanwhile, Russia sought to move into the vacuum left by the United States, as President Vladimir Putin attempted to reassert his country’s identity as a global power.
In the Middle East and Persian Gulf region, there appeared to be no strategies in place that could bring peace. Iraq remained trapped in a complex web of violence, with Washington apparently powerless to engineer a political settlement. The risk of region-wide sectarian conflict seemed to have risen. After conflict in Lebanon in mid 2006, the United States made new diplomatic efforts towards Middle East peace, but gained little traction – and in June 2007, Hamas seized control of Gaza. Meanwhile it became evident that, far from being smashed at the centre, the al-Qaeda terrorist group retained a core that was still able to instigate acts of terrorism around the world.
In East and Southeast Asia, leaders continued to emphasise the importance of close links with Washington, but were meanwhile evolving new security relationships and regional mechanisms, some of which did not involve the United States. However, engagement between Beijing and Washington on many levels was a positive sign, in spite of US suspicions about the size and transparency of Chinese military spending, and in spite of anti-Chinese rhetoric in the US Congress. There was a significant, if tentative, advance when North Korea agreed to steps that could lead to an end to its nuclear-weapons programme – but this was only after Pyongyang detonated a nuclear device.
Another positive development was a new-found consensus that urgent action was needed to curb carbon emissions with the aim of capping the increase in global temperatures.
There was renewed conflict in Somalia and Sri Lanka and a military coup in Thailand. Conflict in Afghanistan and the Darfur region of Sudan remained of wide international concern. According to Strategic Survey 2007, concerted leadership will be needed to tackle complex problems stretching from the Middle East to Pakistan, as well as the threats of terrorism and proliferation. Otherwise, the risk is that simmering international tensions will spill over and endanger global prosperity. A new set of world leaders is emerging. Over the past year, German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who took office in 2005, has been joined by Nicolas Sarkozy in France and Gordon Brown in the United Kingdom. A new Russian president is due to be elected in 2008. These leaders will have to wait until 2009 to deal with an American counterpart who has real authority.
Strategic Policy Issues
Islamist Terrorism: al-Qaeda Resurgent
‘There is increasing evidence that “core” al-Qaeda is proving adaptable and resilient, and has retained an ability to plan and coordinate large-scale attacks in the Western world,’ this essay says. Regional jihadist groups such as al-Qaeda in Mesopotamia and al-Qaeda in the Maghreb have sworn allegiance to al-Qaeda and have begun to show ambition beyond parochial concerns in support of al-Qaeda’s global objectives. Plots that have come to light in Europe and elsewhere point to a growing trend towards radicalisation within the Islamic world.
Climate Change: Security Implications and Regional Impacts
International moves towards combating global warming indicate recognition of the need to curb emissions of greenhouse gases. Even if effective measures are adopted, there will still be unavoidable impacts on the environment, economies and human security. This essay examines likely consequences of climate change for individual regions, and the implications for security. It says: ‘The security dimension will come increasingly to the forefront as countries begin to see falls in available resources and economic vitality, increased stress on their armed forces, greater instability in regions of strategic import, increases in ethnic rivalries, and a widening gap between rich and poor’.
The Military Use of Space
A wave of investment in new technologies could transform the use of space, possibly generating new military options. However, there is a mismatch between the global nature of peaceful commercial opportunities and the lack of cooperation in the use of space for defence and security.
Regional chapters
In the United States, the Bush administration, following the electoral setback of November 2006, was on the defensive amid the unpopular increase of troop numbers in Iraq and several scandals: poor treatment of wounded soldiers; the conviction for perjury of Vice President Dick Cheney’s former aide I. Lewis ‘Scooter’ Libby; and the dismissal of nine federal prosecutors, apparently for political reasons. However, Democratic presidential candidates were wary of foreign-policy positions too distant from that of the administration. Strategic Survey 2007 says: ‘The strategic hole that America found itself in did not have any obvious escape and so constituted a political trap for both political parties’. Democratic candidates joined Republican counterparts in saying Iran’s acquisition of nuclear-weapons capability would be ‘intolerable’. Illinois Senator Barack Obama, who (as a State Senator) had opposed the Iraq war before it was launched, said he did not oppose war, ‘just stupid wars’. He said that ‘no president should ever hesitate to use force – unilaterally if necessary’. New York Senator Hillary Clinton refused to apologise for voting to authorise the invasion of Iraq.
In Latin America, affairs continued to be dominated by the radical populist anti-American rhetoric of Venezuela’s President Hugo Chávez. However, leftist leaders, brought to power amid discontent with US-backed economic policies, mostly took a pragmatic approach, their social-welfare programmes falling well short of economic revolution. Washington slowly regained regional influence as it partnered with Mexico and Brazil to counter Venezuelan oil-backed diplomacy. In Cuba, a key Chávez ally, illness forced Fidel Castro to hand power, at least temporarily, to his brother Raúl.
Europe began to emerge from a period of discord and institutional atrophy. As German Chancellor Angela Merkel established herself as a European leader, Nicolas Sarkozy was elected president of France and Gordon Brown became prime minister of the United Kingdom. Sarkozy, as he embarked on a modernisation of French politics, improved links with Washington. For Brown, the relationship with George W. Bush seemed likely to be businesslike but less close than that of his predecessor Tony Blair. The new leaders shifted the European Union out of the limbo into which it had fallen in 2005, striking a deal on institutional reforms.
Turkey faced an uncertain future as early elections were called in July 2007 amidst a political crisis over nomination of candidates for the presidency. Though the elections resulted in victory for the ruling AK Party, the crisis deepened social tensions, including a simmering struggle between religious and secular forces.
Tension between Russia and the West was increased by assertive rhetoric from Putin, US plans to deploy elements of missile defence in central Europe, Moscow’s opposition to independence for Kosovo, and Russian–UK friction over the murder in London of Russian dissident Alexander Litvinenko.
It was a year of unmitigated gloom in the Middle East and Persian Gulf region. Iraq continued to suffer extreme instability and violence. Bush, in the face of domestic opposition, increased the number of US troops in an attempt to halt the descent into civil war. However, there were doubts that Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki could build a government that could be a vehicle for state building and reconciliation. International pressures mounted on Iran over its nuclear programme, as well as its role in Iraq and Lebanon. The UN Security Council repeatedly set deadlines for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment, which Iran defied. Events in the Middle East were a chain of misfortune that included Israel’s attack on Hizbullah in Lebanon and the takeover of Gaza by Hamas, leading to dissolution of a Hamas-led ‘unity government’ in Palestine. Alarmed at regional developments, Saudi Arabia sought to curb Iranian influence and to put distance between itself and the United States.
In Africa, a US-supported intervention by Ethiopia in Somalia achieved a swift victory for Somalia’s transitional government over the Union of Islamic Courts movement which had taken over the capital. However, a subsequent escalation in fighting delayed a handover to African Union forces. The four-year-old crisis in Sudan’s Darfur region spread westwards to unsettle the country’s neighbours. Elections were held successfully in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, but elections in Nigeria set a poor example.
The economic rise of China and India dominated developments in Asia. While trade and investment ties between China and the United States became ever closer, the relationship was characterised simultaneously by closer engagement and verbal fencing. Relations between Japan and China thawed. The conflict in Afghanistan showed signs of spreading into previously peaceful areas, and Pakistan faced multiple problems including growing disaffection with the government of President Pervez Musharraf. Sri Lanka’s conflict worsened, while in Bangladesh the prospects for democracy were uncertain after the military acted to stem electoral chaos. The outlook for restoration of democracy in Thailand was unclear following the military coup.
Prospectives
Looking ahead to 2008, the world is approaching turning points in several international crises. Strategic Survey 2007 says that ‘shifts in the global balance of power do not herald decisive and effective action to deal with these crises’. Pressure for a withdrawal of American troops from Iraq will grow, and it is likely that ‘Iraqis are left progressively to their own devices, in the hope that this will inspire more compromise than fratricide’. Iran’s ability to build additional centrifuges for uranium enrichment means that its nuclear programme could reach a key threshold. ‘Iran could avert a crisis by slowing its programme down or agreeing to participate in negotiations, and the United States could elongate the time frames by re-calibrating its definition of the threshold or its assessment of Iran’s genuine capacities’. In the Middle East, the focus will shift to trying to provide stronger economic underpinnings to peace, and an international peace conference may be called.
Strategic Survey 2007 concludes: ‘The world in 2008 will be doubly consumed by the politics of parochialism – sectarian rivalries and religious disputes – and by the manoeuvres of balance-of-power politics – alliance politics and arms races… In Europe, the United States and Asia big powers will talk to each other about role, status, alliance, deterrence, containment, balance of power. In the meantime, groups around the world will fight those states and alliances ... In this “non-polar world”, the space for aggressive non-state actors to advance their particularist strategic aims has grown. In 2008, managing nuclear proliferation and terrorism will remain the priorities. But the unsettled relations, rivalries and shifting strengths of the powers that see themselves as custodians of the state system will make the necessary coordination of approaches to these threats immensely hard.’
Strategic Survey 2007 includes a chronology of key world events from May 2006 to June 2007, 28 pages of full-colour maps illustrating global and regional issues, and an index.
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