Financial Times
Iraq used chemical weapons extensively against Iran during the 1980s, causing 40,000 to 80,000 casualties, and also killed up to 6,000 of its own Kurdish population. By 1988 it "had developed the largest and most advanced chemical weapons programme in the Middle East", the IISS report said.
It developed weapons containing the nerve agents sarin and cyclosarin, including aerial bombs, 155m artillery shells, and warheads for delivery on extended-range Scud missiles. VX was later detected on some warheads.
Iraq declared much of its arsenal to United Nations inspectors, who destroyed equipment directly used to produce chemical weapons. But Unscom was unable to finish the job. "Iraq retained hundreds of dual-use process plant components suitable for chemical weapons agent or precursor production. It has continued efforts to acquire precursor chemicals, equipment, knowledge and training," the report said.
The IISS view is that Iraq "has the capacity to achieve a limited chemical weapons capability", based on known industry and expertise, using hidden stocks of weapons agent and precursors. Previous stocks of weapons would no longer be useful, but "Iraq could have retained stable precursors for a few hundred tonnes of sarin and cyclosarin and a similar amount of VX".
The usefulness of such weapons depends on the ability to deliver them. "Iraq's tactical chemical weapons arsenal could include perhaps several thousand munitions, including artillery shells, short-range rockets and aerial bombs." This is insufficient for sustained military operations.
"Although small in number, inaccurate and vulnerable to air defences, Iraqi aircraft and missiles armed with chemical munitions could disrupt logistical operations in rear areas and threaten unprotected civilian populations within range, but are unlikely to cause mass casualties," the IISS says.
