Independent
It would take Iraq "at least several years" to produce fissile material to build a nuclear weapon, defence analysts warned today.
But Saddam Hussein has also stockpiled "perhaps thousands of litres of anthrax" and is capable of resuming biological weapons production in just a few weeks.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) reported today that he probably has a few hundred tonnes of chemical nerve agents, according to a new assessment of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.
It says that even with extensive foreign assistance, it would take Iraq "at least several years" to produce fissile material to build a nuclear weapon.
The report said: "Baghdad retains a strong interest in developing nuclear weapons, but it seems unlikely that Iraq has produced, or is close to producing, nuclear weapons from indigenously produced nuclear material.
"This assessment assumes that the known status of Iraq's nuclear capabilities in 1998 was basically accurate and that Iraq was not able to build clandestine facilities for producing nuclear material."
Analysts at the IISS believe Saddam had probably retained substantial quantities of material for use in a biological weapon, possibly thousands of litres of anthrax, from pre–1991 stocks.
Saddam is thought to be capable of resuming production of such a weapon within weeks from existing civilian facilities.
The report says: "Iraq possesses an industrial capability and knowledge base to produce agents quickly and in volume if desired.
"Aside from conventional military munitions, delivery of BW (biological weapons) by individuals or small groups acting as commandos or terrorists remains a plausible threat that is very difficult to defend against."
On chemical weapons, the authors of the report said that Iraq's capability did not appear to pose a decisive threat against opposing military forces, who would be protected against such attack, although in small numbers chemical munitions could disrupt logistical operations and threaten civilian populations.
Dr John Chipman, one of the authors, told BBC Radio 4's Today programme: "We certainly confirm that it would be difficult for him in the absence of substantial foreign assistance, or the lifting of sanctions soon, to be able to develop his own fissile material.
"However, were he able to obtain fissile material from abroad, steal it or buy it in some way, we certainly believe he has the ability to put together a nuclear weapon very quickly, in a matter of months."
The report also deals with Saddam's missile capabilities and said he has a limited ability to deliver a long range weapon.
Dr Chipman said he believed Iraq had a small force of 650–kilometre range ballistic missiles, which could hit Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Israel, Iran and Turkey.
But the only way for him to reach Europe or the US would be by delivering the missiles from a plane, or through some other terrorist route.
Presenting the report at the IISS headquarters in central London were Dr Chipman, the institute's director, Dr Gary Samore, senior fellow for non–proliferation and Dr Dennis Gormley, consulting senior fellow for technology and defence policy.
