ITV
Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein could build a nuclear weapon "in a matter of months" if he managed to buy or steal raw materials, a defence analyst has warned.
Dr John Chipman, the author of a new document on Saddam's capabilities published by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies, said the dictator has been working hard on his nuclear capacity.
The IISS is an independent centre for information, research and debate on security issues, conflict and conflict prevention and its findings will have credibility.
It has found that Iraq has chemical nerve agents, a stockpile of anthrax and is some way down the road towards nuclear weapons - without yet having the raw material.
But Dr Chipman said if it could steal - or buy - raw material from abroad, a nuclear weapon would be much closer.
Despite increased security since the the break-up of the Soviet Union, nuclear material is widely rumoured to be on sale from corrupt scientists in Russian laboratories.
Iraq also possesses rockets which could deliver a bomb well beyond its borders though not, it is thought, outside the region yet.
Dr Chipman said: "We certainly confirm that it would be difficult for him in the absence of substantial foreign assistance or the lifting of sanctions soon to be able to develop his own fissile material," he said.
"He is attempting to build gas centrifuge machines that would be able to make fissile material, but he hasn't yet been able, we feel, to develop the feed material for that.
"However, were he able to obtain fissile material from abroad, steal it or buy it in some way, we certainly believe he has the ability to put together a nuclear weapon very quickly, in a matter of months."
The report said Saddam had also stockpiled "perhaps thousands of litres of anthrax" and is capable of resuming biological weapons production in just a few weeks.
He has probably a few hundred tonnes of chemical nerve agents, according to a new assessment of Iraq's weapons of mass destruction.
Analysts at the IISS believe Saddam had probably retained substantial quantities of material for use in a biological weapon, possibly thousands of litres of anthrax, from pre-1991 stocks.
The report says: "Iraq possesses an industrial capability and knowledge base to produce agents quickly and in volume if desired.
"Aside from conventional military munitions, delivery of biological weapons by individuals or small groups acting as commandos or terrorists remains a plausible threat that is very difficult to defend against."
The report said that Iraq's chemical weapons capability did not appear to pose a decisive threat against opposing military forces, who would be protected against such attack, although in small numbers chemical munitions could disrupt logistical operations and threaten civilian populations.
The IISS report comes after a weekend which saw Prime Minister Tony Blair and US President George W Bush argue that doing nothing about Saddam's weapons programmes was not an option for the international community.
Mr Blair stressed that once the public had seen the evidence "people will see this is not something that has been invented or dreamt up in the last few weeks. This is a real and serious issue.
"People should have confidence that we will approach this issue in a sensible and measured way."
But he warned, too, of the "horrendous" consequences if rogue states with brutal regimes like Iraq used their nuclear, biological and chemical capability.
Defence Secretary Geoff Hoon is flying to the US for a six-day visit which will include talks with his Washington counterpart Donald Rumsfeld on Wednesday, the first anniversary of the September 11 terrorist attacks on New York and Washington.
